Things Will Change. As the weeks of the pandemic move along, I am coming to realize that we don’t know what is going to happen in the future. There are predictions about peak carbon, peak oil and I’ve personally written about how the energy use will be redistributed with more people working from home. When will you get on a plane again and do you expect to work from home in 2021? These questions will drive much of what changes or not. For the solar industry, there is little that points to lower energy consumption in the home as opposed to the past. Self-reliance and backup generation will likely grow in importance during the sales cycle but the solar industry will not be alone in approaching this market with solutions. Utilities, generators and efficiency will also pursue the opportunity, look at how quick Generac was to get into California with generators during the wildfire crisis last year and with two acquisitions made themselves a real player in solar as well. The point is that every data point from every over analyzed consultant is based on a changed set of variables and the oil companies are front and center as well. No-one is driving and planes are grounded, oil usage is down and the postcard from the future has arrived in the form of a Mack truck. A world that doesn’t use oil at the same levels was something ESG and sustainability executives have been saying for years and predicted it would come some day. Oil companies must adjust they said, invest in solar and wind and batteries. How does an oil company get into the renewables space overnight and replace billions in quarterly profits? How would you do it? Can it be done? I don’t know who and how and where the battle by the big market will play out, but here is one thing that I am certain about. Those of you that service the homeowner, whether as a local installer, a regional one or a national player on the top 10 list, that market is going to top $20billion, $50billion and more. Today that market is slow, inefficient and lacks the transparency you expect in vibrant marketplaces. That will change with the growth and success of many, so things will change for everyone everywhere. For those of us fortunate enough to be in solar, hang on tight.
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- Axios: How the post-coronavirus shift to remote work could impact oil demand
- Reuters: Eight countries say gas deserves help as EU readies ‘green recovery’ fund
- PV-Tech: Daqo drives polysilicon production costs down to industry record US$5.86/kg
- PV-Magazine: Greece to tender up to 482 MW of PV in July, set up storage framework
- GreenBiz: 3 ads about sustainability that got it right (according to data)
- Utility Dive: State-federal tension ‘at an all time high’ between MOPR, net metering attack, says head Maryland regulator
- Bloomberg: Built by Oil’s Riches, Houston Goes 100% Green Years Earlier
Opinion
Best, Yann