This is your SolarWakeup for October 6th, 2020

Utility Scale Solar At Risk. Utility scale solar has been and continues to boom across the Country, both in utility and 3rd party owned segments. This has helped the cost of solar to drop across all segments and scale has caused modules to get to sub 30 cents per watt which is helping everyone. But here is the important counterpoint that everyone needs to keep in their mind. In the past few days we’ve seen announcements of solar in Louisiana, Arkansas and Nebraska to name a few. Solar is the biggest interconnection backlog in Michigan and ERCOT amongst others. The reality is that utility scale solar grows in strength everywhere that consumers have an increasing ability to put solar on their own roof. Residential solar is 10% of the capacity compared to utility scale but is 99% of the public opinion. 10 years ago, my neighbors in Florida would tell me solar doesn’t work because they can’t put it on their house. Those same neighbors (even with their Trump lawn signs) have solar panels on their roof now and they trust large scale solar to be just as effective. This is a symbiotic relationship that our industry often overlooks at its own detriment.

Blue Wave Scenario. In the first of the scenarios let us look at a what is possible if Biden takes the White House, democrats the house and senate and remove the filibuster. Basically control of all law making. First the downside. In this scenario so many things will be focused on that energy policy would probably not reach the top 5. You would also have to think about how clean energy and climate policy may intersect or deviate. You could see solar advocates push for some or all of the following (I wonder if the wish list already exists): national RPS, strengthening PURPA for renewable qualified facilities, national carbon policy, standardized permitting laws, extension of the ITC with direct pay, job training, R&D dollars and a greener TVA. Fundamentally, I could see policy that aims to achieve carbon free energy generation and solar on every rooftop as the goals. Execution will be up to the legislative writers. There are some great folks working hard on Clean Energy 4 Biden that would make great staffers in the administration if this happens and New York policy folks will have a big impact on Senator Schumer’s position on this as majority leader.

Exxon Planning Disaster. An internal document from ExxonMobil says that the corporation is planning on increasing carbon emissions. What happens next with institutional investors especially university endowments will be interesting to watch. If they hesitated full divestiture from fossil fuels, leaving Exxon will be an easy decision.

Chasing C&I Gold. Siemens and Macquarie (Green Investment Group) are forming a new joint venture to target solar plus storage on commercial buildings. Storage is the silver bullet for the C&I market that always had a problem with the default/downside scenario with tenants that leave or off takers that default.

Yann On A Pod. I joined Tim Montague to talk about solar markets and the Buyer’s Group on his youtube based podcast. It was a great conversation.

Get The Power. Later this year, the residential solar market is going to get some major savings with most of their balance of systems when the shift to higher power solar modules really gets going. With power density going up more than 10%, those savings will trickle down to mounts, rails, inverters, labor and wire and hopefully into installers’ wallets. Make sure you are getting the best modules and pricing possible by joining the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group. You can see the pricing on our price discovery page.

Opinion

Best, Yann