This is your SolarWakeup for December 16th, 2020

Taking A Victory Lap. 2020 numbers for Q3 are out from SEIA in their Solar Market Insight. Spoiler, they are really good and I get to take a victory lap alongside this network we’ve created. When the pandemic struck in February, I spent hours talking to you, conducting surveys and trying to put results over sentiment. This led to a SolarWakeup prediction in May where I said that residential solar would not decline by 20%+ but instead grow in 2020. Most were skeptical about that forecast but here we are, prediction is true thanks to you.

The Market Speaks. 2020 has been a year for all of us and somehow in the middle of it the solar industry is going to grow like crazy, including in a residential segment that was originally expected to shed 1GW from 2019 levels. With 69GW of utility scale solar already contracted, we’re entering the SEIA dubbed solar decade. This means that solar, as an industry, is ready to let Joe Biden put sunshine on our panels (we need a wind in our sails analogy) and supercharge what’s ahead. The energy and transportation transition needs solar to work hard to do it all. Jobs and opportunity lie ahead, you should all take a moment and thank each other for the work you’ve done to get us here.

Hear More. Tomorrow at 11am eastern, join me and Phil Shen as well as our fellow industry insiders for a market update call, particularly focused on residential. You can read Phil’s market analysis on the possible ITC extension here as well as read his weekly market insights by contacting him. Registration for the webinar is here and anyone that’s been listening to the series (this is webinar #10) has definitely been given the most accurate analysis and forecast in the market.

An ITC Inside Straight? Late yesterday evening, at the time of this writing, there seems to be a narrow window for a 1-year extension of the ITC. This extension would be included within a broader extenders bill inside the omnibus spending bill. The omnibus will also get a ~$700b covid stimulus attached to it, making it too big to fail at final vote. Whether solar gets included during the legislative drafting and negotiation is likely to occur overnight and maybe announced by the time you read this.

The DOE Secretary. Now officially the President-elect, Joe Biden is naming Governor Granholm as the next Secretary of Energy. SolarWakeup proposed the Governor for the position 4 years ago (see here). Granholm was Governor of Michigan from 2003 to 2011, close to the domestic auto sector and big supporter of solar. She was a big fan of Uni-Solar and courted companies like Suniva to open plants in Michigan. She personally bragged about the manufacturing plants to me in 2010, I will vouch for her enthusiasm for the solar sector. She joins the administration from her current post at UC Berkeley moving to DC from Oakland, where many of you are reading this newsletter from. A company she sits on the board of, ChargePoint, recently announced that it was going public via SPAC. They can definitely contact me to fill that board seat.

30 Years Of Solar. In this episode of SolarWakeup (or find it on spotify or Apple), the podcast, I speak with Dan Shugar. Dan is the CEO of Nextracker, one of the largest tracker company in the world, currently owned by Flex. Dan has been thinking about solar for over 30 years and our conversation weaved through many of the periods that led us to where we are today, a mainstream energy generator creating generation wealth opportunities. Conversations like this are difficult to maneuver for me because after 15 years in solar I have a lot of the background that some listeners may not know or recollect but I think this may be a great welcome to solar listen for everyone in the industry. You also get a first attempt at the 10 minute episode of SolarWakeup recap at the top, fast forward to minute 10 to get to the interview. I’d certainly appreciate it if you forward the episode along to friends and colleagues.

Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive. Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.

Opinion

Best, Yann