This is your SolarWakeup for October 18th, 2021

It Was A DC Long Game. You read about it here when Gina McCarthy stood in front of the White House and said that the Clean Energy Program (a federal RPS type policy) was a dealbreaker. McCarthy and many of the White House operatives knew how Manchin and others felt about this and how energy policy is largely managed by States. The same is true for the $3.5trillion price tag, you shoot high and then get ready to deal and this weekend, we finally got to the dealmaking phase when Manchin told the White House that he wouldn’t support the CES in the reconciliation bill. Energy Twitter went straight to labeling Manchin as a lobbyist bought Senator that double deals in fossil fuels but if the reconciliation bill delivers anything near the dollar amounts for actual deployment and funds for R&D, it will be a major energy victory for solar and storage industries.

Manchin Was Never In. Joe Manchin is a democrat from West Virginia, the State that is synonymous with coal mining. To think that he was ever going to support the energy transition through fiat, is naive in understanding how politics works. Removing the CES from the bill now, clears the path for Manchin to help the democrats deliver the rest of the legislation and show the other side and his voters that he stood up for them. That’s why the game is played, you may not like it but this is the full contact sport of politics.

But Don’t Ignore His Value. Here’s a note to everyone that may not like my message this morning about Manchin. He may not be the green warrior you’d like him to be as the 50th vote but he’s the 50th democrat in the US Senate that gives Chuck Schumer the gavel. Do you know what the legislation would look like if McConnell had the gavel because you’d rather see Manchin wear a GOP label? And I know someone will point out to me the millions that coal and fossil fuel industries have donated to the Senator this year, you’re right. But let me ask you this, how much have you or the solar industry donated to this or other US Senators to get their support? If you think politicians are solely driven by donations, which I would argue against, then why aren’t you playing the game? It can’t be because the coal industry is financially more viable than solar is it?

The Market Speaks. The decade long extension of tax credits for solar and addition of stand alone tax credits for storage will do far more for the energy transition than a federal policy mandating the transition. Over 50% of the US population already has a 100% clean energy standard and other States, like Florida, are leveraging regulated industries driving shareholder return to head that way. The market is doing the transition, now let’s focus on speeding up interconnection applications and increased pricing signals in power markets.

C&I Market Update. Join the Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) team on Oct 27th, 10am PST, as they break down exciting new programs, incentives, and updates across the US C&I solar market. In this free webinar, the team will provide actionable information on a several solar-friendly states to help developers and EPCs better originate & execute projects. This webinar is recommended for solar developers and EPCs involved or interested in the C&I solar space. To join this exciting webinar, simply click here.

Opinion

Best, Yann