Living While Global Change Happens. It takes a step back for all of us to realize how much change is actually happening in real time for our energy infrastructure. I watch as my neighbors habits on commuting to work changes every day, sometimes at the last minute deciding whether to go in or not. We never think, but expect, electricity to be available in either location with no advance notice. Is it uncommon for homes to have two 50A breakers for EV charging? Does the office you go to have fast charging or other means of fueling your car? Now quick, how many EVs are available for purchase today in the US? (It’s 40 made by 12 OEMs). My point is that we’re using more energy than ever before but the way and location we use them has never been more volatile. We have zero tolerance for the lightswitch to not cause the light to turn on, the grid must be 100% reliable or consumers, regulators and politicians take it out on grid operators. (Also, don’t raise the rates) This is monumental change and has a tremendous task ahead, just read the headlines from PJM and ISO-NE over the past month. More resilience is needed in order for things to keep working the way we want, and that’s assuming that the rate of change does not accelerate further. (which it will, thanks to the IRA)
Change Means Opportunity. Goldman Sachs now sees the IRA creating over 1.2Trillion dollars in new investments and that could be assuming current circumstances. I’ll add one very likely scenario for the auto sector. Cars that lose demand, don’t get discontinued when demand goes to zero, they get discontinued when they hit a non-profitable volume. This year will be the last one of America’s muscle cars, the Chevrolet Camaro. While it used to sell 70k plus units per year, last year it did just over 20k. That means 20k would be buyers next year will go elsewhere and the likelihood that a thrill seeking, muscle car driver goes electric is very high, especially with juicy tax credits.
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Opinion
Best, Yann