Author Archives: Frank Andorka

The Energy Show: Climate Change – Time To Start Panicking

The Energy Show: By Barry Cinnamon

These days you can’t watch TV, read a news story or listen to the radio without seeing catastrophic fires, hurricanes, and high temperatures. The world is getting hotter. To illustrate, Death Valley recorded the hottest month ever recorded on Earth. Temperatures averaged 108.1 degrees day and night, all of July 2018. That beat last year’s record monthly temperature. This is not just a U.S. only story, it’s a worldwide issue. During the month of July 2018 record high temperatures were set on every single continent in the northern hemisphere (it was winter in the southern hemisphere).

Politicians, policymakers and leaders all over the world created the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016 — which every country in the world joined except for outcast Syria. Syria stepped up to the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 — and then during the same year President Trump withdrew from the Agreement. The U.S. is the only country in the world that is not a signatory of the Paris Climate Agreement, the intention of which is to avoid a likely slow motion global warming disaster. We have been euphemistically describing this problem as “climate change.” Yes, the climate is changing, and it is getting hotter. So I am back to describing this looming catastrophe as “global warming.”

There are a few scientists who still believe that this global warming is not caused by mankind, is part of a natural cycle, or is not really a problem (Iceland could be the new Costa del Sol). Nevertheless, according to ongoing temperature analyses conducted by climate scientists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about .8 degree Celsius which is 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880. Two thirds of the warming has incurred since 1975 at a rate of .15 to .2 degrees per decade. Natural processes are generally not linear — this warming is speeding up. We may be getting close to a tipping point at which global warming dramatically accelerates, flooding coastal areas and creating conditions so hot in many countries that humans can no longer survive.

Please Listen up to this week’s Energy Show as we share various scientific and media perspectives on global warming. It’s time to panic and act.

Report: Utility Scale Solar Procurement Surged, Residential Solar Steadies in Q2 2018

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Though the overall solar market declined in Q2 of 2018, there was good news to be had in the utility-scale and residential sectors. Those are the headlines from the Q2 U.S. Solar Market Insight Report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Woods MacKenzie Power & Renewables (WKPR) (formerly GTM Research).

As some predicted, the decision by the Chinese to halt their domestic market sent component prices into a nosedive, which allowed the utility-scale solar market to procure nearly 8.5 GW of solar in the second quarter. Lower than expected tariffs – starting at 30% – also contributed to the surge.

But even the residential solar, which had struggled in recent quarters to the tune of a 15% contraction in 2017, is showing increasing stability, according to the most recent numbers.

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“Once lower-than-expected module tariffs were announced in January 2018, developers and utilities began announcing new projects,” Wood Mackenzie Senior Analyst Colin Smith writes in the report. “As we move toward 2019, we expect to see continued procurement growth as developers look to secure projects they can bring online before the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) steps down to 10 percent in 2022.”

In the residential sector, 577 MW were installed in the second quarter of the year, which were flat compared to the previous quarter as well as year on year. According to WKPR, “declines in previous quarters were less a symptom of the tariffs but instead a result of customer acquisition challenges and the scaling back of several large installers. The report points to the leveling out of the market as a sign that customer acquisition challenges may be subsiding. Emerging residential state markets like Florida and Nevada posted large gains in installations and helped the segment rebound.”

In other words, as SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said, the tariffs have had some effect on the solar industry, but it is too strong to stay down for long. Indications are that the second half of 2018 will remain strong, and that 2019 could be a rebound year.

Other key findings from the report include:

  • In Q2 2018, the U.S. market installed 2.3 GWdc of solar PV, a 9% year-over-year decrease and a 7% quarter-over-quarter decrease.
  • In the first half of 2018, 29% of all new electricity generating capacity brought online in the U.S. came from solar PV.
  • For a second consecutive quarter, the residential PV sector was essentially flat on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis – an encouraging sign of market stabilization after a year in which the market contracted 15%.
  • Non-residential PV fell 16% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year.
  • Corporate procurement of utility PV through physical PPAs, virtual PPAs, and green tariffs has grown to account for 12% of projects in development.
  • Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables forecasts flat growth in 2018 vs. 2017, with another 10.9 GWdc of new PV installations expected.
  • Total installed U.S. PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years. By 2023, more than 14 GWdc of PV capacity will be installed annually.

Vote Solar Comes Out In Favor Of Tom Steyer’s Arizona Proposition

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Vote Solar announced today that it and the Arizona small business community have come out behind Proposition 127, a ballot initiative that would enshrine a 50% renewable portfolio standard (RPS) by 2030.

Arizona’s current RPS is 15%.

Prop 127, backed by progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, has been mired in controversy as the state’s three largest utilities – Arizona Public Service (APS), Tucson Electric Power (TEP) and the Salt River Project (SRP) – have all funded political action committees to oppose the proposition. APS even brought a lawsuit challenging the signatures on the ballot petitions, a suit that was settled when a judge decided enough of the signatures were valid to keep the initiative in front of voters in November.

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In offering its support, Art Terrazas, Interior West director at the Vote Solar Action Fund said:

Arizona is one of the sunniest states in the nation, and the people of Arizona overwhelmingly support putting more of that plentiful sunshine to work supporting good jobs and healthier families. Proposition 127 gives Arizonans the opportunity to vote for that brighter energy future at the ballot this fall. “We are proud to be speaking up for Proposition 127 and a stronger solar powered Arizona with these local business leaders and community stakeholders across the state.

Arizona is the third pillar in Steyer’s three-state strategy. Under the leadership of state-level groups funded by him, Steyer already has an initiative on the ballot in Nevada, and his efforts in Michigan led to a negotiated settlement in which the state’s three largest utilities have pledged to eliminate coal from their portfolios by 2045 and increase their investments in renewable energy.

Rooftop solar installers, as you might imagine, support Prop 127 and are thrilled to have Vote Solar on their side.

“Thanks to innovation and the individual choices of thousands of consumers who have demanded new energy choices, solar energy has become one of the most affordable energy resources across the United States,” said Louis Woofenden with Tucson-based Net Zero Solar. “That’s especially true here in sunny Arizona. It just makes sense that Arizona should be using more of our plentiful and affordable renewable energy resources to power our homes, businesses and communities with a ‘yes’ vote on Proposition 127.”

Report: Renewable Sources Will Power 80% Of Electricity Generation By 2050

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

According to the latest DNV-GL Energy Transition Outlook 2018: Power Supply and Use report, renewable energy will power approximately 80% of electricity generation by 2050, with the majority of that surge coming from wind and solar.

As prices for the technology continue to drop, DNV0-GL is predicting that 40% of all electricity generation will come from solar sources, while 29% will come from wind.

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What’s more, the report suggests rapid electrification will continue to become a higher percentage of energy use, reaching 45% by 2050, with particular increases occurring in the transportation, building and manufacturing sectors of the economy. It also forecasts that 50% of all new vehicles sold in Europe within the next decade will be electric vehicles (EVs), significantly increasing the need for electricity production. When you dovetail the two predictions, you can see that solar and wind production increases will shape the economic future of not just Europe but the rest of the world as well.

What that will necessitate – no matter how much free market mavens don’t want to hear this – is greater regulation. Higher use of solar and wind is going to force governments to shift how their populations use electricity through using market mechanisms and changes to the electricity market fundamentals. And governments are going to have to intervene. In parallel, market-based price signals are essential to foster innovation and develop economically efficient flexibility options.

You might think the expansion of high-capital-cost renewables and electricity networks would drive prices up, but DMV-GL predicts the exact opposite. For example, the report suggests the total cost of energy expenditure, as a share of global GDP, will fall from 5.5% to 3.1%, a drop by 44%. Absolute energy expenditure will still grow by 30% over the forecast period, to 6 Tn$/yr. DNV GL foresees a shift in costs, from operational expenditure, principally fuel, to capital expenditure. From 2030, more capital expenditures will go into electricity grids and wind and solar than into fossil-fuel projects.