This is your SolarWakeup for September 1st, 2020
Quick Rundown. It was my youngest 4th birthday yesterday and my day got away from me so here’s some thoughts for the day. All of your marketing teams should be sending news to SolarWakeup when great things happen at your company.
Shorting The Planet. The EPA is basically making coal generation a market without any rules. It would seem to me that any operator would not follow the new rules knowing that eventually this will come back to haunt them, something that I’ll mention in the paragraph below and have written about in the past.
Who Bans Fracking. Biden, in his speech yesterday, said he does not want to ban fracking. Banning fracking is bad politics to begin with, it’s also as silly politically as banning nuclear given that the markets are going to make away with it. Before you throw me into environmental jail, Biden didn’t say that he wouldn’t direct the EPA, DOJ and regulators to ensure strict adherence to existing and new environmental regulations. Leaky methane from the wells? Clean it up. Contaminated water wells? Clean it up. If you can’t, don’t or won’t then the admin is coming for you. My two cents on this.
The Pipelines In Waiting. The headline in Pennsylvania is replaceable for every State in America. Solar and storage development pipelines are growing and it would be great to have legislators understand how to clear those pipeline and get the projects in the ground. Pennsylvania is a good example of how very little legislative action would do a lot to get into the right direction.
Retail Energy Plus PPA. What happens when you sign a C&I customer up to a retail energy contract, PPA for solar and onsite generator in the same deal? Find out in my latest podcast.
Sell More Solar with CollectiveSun. My friends at CollectiveSun know Nonprofits. They know that Nonprofits are looking for three things when going solar: a simple and user friendly process, the ability to utilize tax benefits, and access to funding that doesn’t break the bank. CollectiveSun can help you give them all that and more. These days, more than ever, Nonprofits are looking to lower their operating expenses. CollectiveSun will help you generate more sales and will work with you to become the go-to solar installer for Nonprofits. Click here to learn more about working with CollectiveSun.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 31st, 2020
Solar Market Survey. Last day to Take The Survey Make sure that your situation is part of the poll. You can hear the results on the market update call tomorrow morning at 10am, register for that here.
NEM 3.0 In Your Inbox. The CPUC Is taking up net metering in a new docket. This isn’t a surprise but kicks off the yearlong fight over solar’s role in the California grid. Utilities are already pushing phone op-eds and arguments while the value of DG has never been great and more apparent in the State hammed by wildfires and grid issues. Stay tuned for more on this as the year moves on.
The C&I Riddle. In this week’s podcast I talk with the CEO of Catalyst Power, a returning guest to SolarWakeup. Catalyst is backed by BP Energy Partners and is taking their knowledge of retail energy for C&I customers and adding solar and on-site generation to their offering. By combining retail energy services with onsite generation, Catalyst says they can finance more projects more efficiently, hedging their risk while maximizing value to the building owner.
Maine Is For Solar. The infrastructure team at the Carlyle group is in for a 100MW+ project in Maine. Latitudes in Maine can reach the northernmost in the continental US and be north of Montreal. We are reaching a geographic saturation when it comes to where you can develop solar. Someone do the analysis for me on Alaska, what would a QF contract have to look to make that happen?
DG Value Stacking. This publication has written about the real reason we think net metering is the right way to make solar work for homeowners, it’s not the rate it’s the simplicity. In reality, if distributed solar and storage were able to capture and/or participate in value creation in dynamic markets, rooftop solar would actually generate far more than it does under net metering. For every cost the grid assumes for hosting dg solar, it generates twice the value that is neither counter or monetized. It took many years for solar to get to this cost standpoint but now that the cost is below other generation, a free market that prices all the layers is ideal for the industry.
Big EV Times Two. CPUC approves a half of a billion for EV infrastructure and Amazon order 1,800 electric vans from Mercedes. We’re done with pilot programs?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 28th, 2020
Solar Market Survey. Please take 3 minutes and fill out our survey looking at the current state of the solar market. Take The Survey Survey ends on Monday, your participation is valuable.
Dream Job In Solar. HR pros in solar that want to work for a great team while tackling the issues of our times like climate and inequality. Vote Solar is hiring a director of talent and culture, you can see the job description and apply here.
The SunPower Spin. SunPower and Maxeon have completed their spin-off and are now separate companies trading on the public markets, SPWR and MAXN. Now SunPower starts its path to competing in the Sunrun, Sunnova and Vivint Solar track of public companies, best of luck to the SunPower team in the new era.
Bailey Bridge Of Gas. It seems that we are acknowledging the end of coal and moving to a discussion about the future of gas. Here is the CEO of ConEd Wednesday, “We made those investments five to seven years ago, and at that time we — and frankly many others — viewed natural gas as having a fairly large role in the transition to the clean energy economy," McAvoy said. "That view has largely changed, and natural gas, while it can provide emissions reductions, is no longer ... part of the longer-term view," particularly in the U.S. Northeast where state regulators have blocked pipeline projects.” Add the report out of LA that the single gas plant has been leaking methane for several years at the rate of 30,000 cars. The discussion of gas as part of the future portfolio is upon us.
Climate And A Second Term. This is meant to be inflammatory and a single issue discussion that I’d like to have someone take the opposite side of. What happens to the fight against climate change under a second Trump term? We’ve seen the FERC policies that were pushed to prop up coal and nuclear in the MOPR. An ITC extension squashed by this White House. We’ve seen environmental rules challenged or removed. A push to drill in ANWR and off the coast of Florida. In solar, the market has grown in spite of tariff on tariff that has doubled the cost of solar modules, increased the cost on inverters and racking. Meanwhile racking manufacturing is leaving the US not coming back and inverter factories are just moving to a different offshore Country. As I said yesterday, solar should be supported by both parties but that is not the case and is not, in my opinion, something that Trump wants to see more of. When it comes to fighting climate change and creating millions of jobs in our sectors, a second Trump term will be troubling.
Have a great weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 27th, 2020
Solar Market Survey. Please take 3 minutes and fill out our survey looking at the current state of the solar market. Take The Survey
Watching Hurricane Laura. In a nearly identical track to Hurricane Katrina (Laura is sparing South Florida), a massive category 4 hurricane with a storm surge described as unsurvivable by the national hurricane center is hitting the Gulf Coasts of Texas and Louisiana. The surge has a chance of reaching 30 miles inland which makes me ponder the idea of living 0.25 miles from the Altantic. I hope those of you reading this in the path of the storm are preparing yourself and doing what you can to stay safe, we’ll be here for you afterwards. Next week, there will be talk about the need for infrastructure that is distributed because we will also see the images of thousands of utility trucks heading to the region for mutual aid and rebuilding the wood poles that we can our electric infrastructure.
My Hope, Via Miami Mayor. The Mayor of Miami is a republican which isn’t notable by itself. What is notable is that Mayor Suarez went on Axios yesterday and said that the republican party needs to change its position on the environment. You can’t look at hurricane Laura and think what if that hits Miami today, Hurricane Andrew was a wind event but if that happened today the water damage would be catastrophic and the Mayor knows that. So I ask this, what is it going to take for national republicans to stand up and say that we need to put solar on every home in America?
The Northeastern Response To Blackouts. After a storm that is out of the control of a utility, southern states are used to losing power for days or weeks. Everyone knows it could happen and that’s why homes on hospital grids go for more money. No regulator or even consumer blames the utility so it was a surprise to me to see Governors of New York and Connecticut be outraged at the utility response to Hurricane Isaias. Maybe utilities should do more planning and include disaster mitigation and response in their IRP which would likely yield better investments.
Solar Plus Plus Plus. Wildfires, snow storms, hurricanes, heat wave are just a few of the big items that seem to be pushing our grid to the edge. When the connection between your house or apartment to the wood pole outside breaks, you are on your own. Your food goes bad, medical devices go on critical backup and you can no longer cool your home. We reached a million solar rooftops in California late last year and CALSSA embarked on a million solar batteries earlier this year but the future is well above 1 million given the external factors facing us today and the tailwind of regulator support that calls for more deployment of distributed resource. Much more on this coming.
Roth Capital Market Update. Next Tuesday at 10am Eastern, join me and others on the Roth Capital solar market update. You can register here.
Buyer’s Group Price Challenge. Installers across the Country are saving money with the Buyer’s Group, like modules under $0.40/watt. Take the price challenge today and discover your savings.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 26th, 2020
Solar Market Survey. The August survey is now available and I hope you participate in responding. This is an important Q3 checkin and outlines the Q4 opportunities ahead.
Roth Capital Market Update. Next Tuesday at 10am Easter, join me and others on the Roth Capital solar market update. You can register (free) here.
Farewell Exxon. A few years ago Exxon was the most valuable company by market cap in the world and the CEO was en route to being the Secretary of State. Now Exxon has lost over half of its market cap and removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average where it has been for 92 years. That leaves Chevron as the sole remaining oil company in the average. I’m not on a strategic committee at the oil companies but the fact that none of them have bought a utility or entered electric generation or EV infrastructure in a meaningful way is dumbfounding.
PURPA Fights In Big Sky. Solar developers have won a ruling at the Montana Supreme Court regarding their complaint that regulators didn’t follow PURPA rules when they cut the contract value and terms for qualifying facilities. I like it when solar fights go to unusual places and win.
All Eyes On Senate. The Senate released a report titled “The Case For Climate Action: Building a Clean Economy for the American People.” Obvious problem with the report is that it only comes from the Democrats in the Senate not the full body, an unfortunate sign of the times. Senator Schatz (Hawaii-D) sat down with Vox’s David Roberts to go through the report. One note to watch post November, will Senator Manchin keep his chairmanship of the Energy committee or will he be upgraded to something else. The democrats will maneuver this sensitive area because they can’t go Joshua Lyman on Senator Manchin and risk a party switch. On the other hand, Manchin is the most conservative member of the caucus and could hold up critical work on climate change if the democrats have the majority.
A Southeastern RTO. An interesting idea but with the most powerful monopolies in the Country operating in the Southeast, consider this a pipe dream (for now).
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 25th, 2020
The Need And Value Of DG To Utility Scale. Yesterday the California legislature passed SB 364, a bill that only matters if a proposition is passed by voters in November. Assuming the Governor signs the bill, which he is expected to, the bill ensures that C&I and utility scale solar are not crushed by new property taxes. This is where the value of a strong state chapter like CALSSA came in. This is why utility scale solar and distributed generation are aligned in advocacy and market development. Without the help of DG and state advocates this bill would have failed passage. It took the collective push of all to ensure success. Sometimes not all things have to directly benefit you to benefit you in the long run, if homeowners can’t put solar on their homes and business do you think they will help advance policies that allow large scale solar to be built? Will politicians help an industry that leaves their constituents behind? I hope this is an event that brings solar closer together and maybe as a sign of goodwill, brings utility scale companies into the CALSSA membership. It’s a big tent and you just saw what it’s worth to you.
The Politics Of CA Blackouts. Trump is politicizing the blackouts in California, taking the talking point of a green dream causing terrible grid harm. Grid operators have said that a 500mw plant going offline unexpectedly was the final trigger on the issues. It was the help of consumers and a call for aid from consumers to reduce consumption that kept the issues from cascading from there. The details won’t stop the White House from trying to tie renewables to instability, even regulators that know better are jumping on this and ex-Enron folks are eager to rewrite history from circa 2000.
Old Generations Versus New Price Signals. The major shift regulators need to take up immediately is a new price signal for demand reduction, to shape consumer demand in times of need. Shaping demand based on consumer behavior is a major market challenge but startups like OhmConnect have shown that given the right price signal, consumers will adapt. Pricing that allows opportunities for DG storage to operate in a distribute environment could give California over 5GW of flex capacity without the need to contract for it upfront just by providing an opportunity to generate value. This is a forward looking method as opposed to keeping existing plants ready for closure open.
Twitter Talks DOE. Less than a 100 days until the election and energy twitter is equal parts working hard to elect Biden while also giddy at the thought of filing the cabinets, especially DOE. While DOE does great work on R&D and advancing solar soft cost reductions, DOE is primarily the department of nuclear energy including being responsible for the nuclear stockpile. The EPA is where pollution, clean air and water reside but it is less powerful as an administration not department. For what it’s worth, my pick for DOE Secretary is Governor Granholm, an early adopter of solar policies and solar manufacturing in Michigan.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 24th, 2020
Looking At The TVA. Every time someone in energy makes the argument that a utility should be made public as a muni or a coop I immediately think of the TVA. A public entity with a board appointed by Congress, with the highest paying position in the federal government, TVA is one of the most anti-solar utilities in the Country. This is supported by the antics of SMUD, LADWP and many others across the Country as well. The clean energy industry needs to examine the regulatory appointment process in every State and if Biden wins, look at the boards within the federal government as well. I want to be on the board of the TVA, not to be the inside solar guy but to make TVA the best run utility in the Country and be pro-solar and clean. We need our industry pros to be PSC commissioners, PSC staffers and secretaries at the state level also, the talent is here but we have to fight for it.
Worth Repeating. On Friday’s newsletter we highlighted the comments from Joe Biden in his DNC speech. It’s worth repeating on this Monday morning that climate change and the promise of clean energy jobs was prioritized to the top of the issues calendar. What solar policies do you think a Biden admin should prioritize?
Hope For The Best. This is the best way to describe the situation in California, and that’s before we talk about the wildfires. California is the first state on the mainland to push for a major energy transition and is stuck somewhere in no-man’s land. Parts of the market look deregulated with CAISO pricing and taking power away from the IOU with CCAs but then the CPUC doesn’t give purchasing power to those entities in order to price what they value. Politically, electeds in CA talk like everything should be solar and batteries with a robust demand response based pricing mechanism that shapes demand behavior based on generation but that’s nowhere near what is actually getting done. On the other hand this is not complicated to execute but regulatory capture is real. Take a look at PG&E a formerly (2x) bankrupt utility with junk credit rating convicted of multiple felonies, what did they lose when they last filed for BK from a regulatory perspective?
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This is your SolarWakeup for August 21st, 2020
Climate As Top 4 Issue. Joe Biden gave his nomination acceptance speech late last night at the DNC. Standing alone in an empty arena behind a podium the former Vice President and Senator outlined the 4 great issues facing our country. A pandemic, economic downturn, racial injustice and acceleration of the climate crisis. In this SolarWakeup forum, climate is a top issue, it is our call to action so to hear it elevated to the last speech on the last day of a party convention gives me hope that the issue now has the platform we’ve been calling for. The work doesn’t end here, more work has to be done so whether your work is through Clean Energy for Biden, local campaigns or advocacy or talking about this issue to republican members, your voice is as important as ever. As Biden laid out, the climate crisis is the problem with an opportunity to create millions of great paying jobs and cause the investment of trillions of dollars.
California’s Energy PR Debate. Who is to blame for the multiple stage 3 emergencies causing rolling blackouts in California? The debate rages online. Couple of data points. The first emergency started at 7pm, yet solar is somehow to blame for this emergency. Secondly, there was more natural gas feeding the grid this Friday evening than the same Friday in the last two years. The argument is that renewable energy advocates are so powerful in California that regulators had to also cancel fossil fuel development and generation. CPUC, CAISO and CEC signed a letter stating that renewables were not to blame.
The Jobs In CleanTech. The governor of New Mexico is on Axios to talk about jobs in clean energy and I urge job training entities in solar to get themselves ready and professionalize their outreach to legislators. Solar, wind and the energy transition will cause changes that impact real people’s lives. Coal plant operators will lose jobs and so will miners and train operators for example. We must be a welcoming industry with training and great paying jobs, which I know we are, but not everyone does.
The Money In Solar. SolSystems buys $200million in North Carolina projects, Blackstone injects $300million in residential solar loans and DOE advances perovskite R&D. Not bad for a Thursday.
Batteries In Market. Yesterday you read about the LS Power battery in San Diego, the largest in the world. Based on reporting the plant only had an RA contract but operated on a merchant basis through the energy crisis. In Texas there were also several battery plants operating without existing off take agreements. It is entirely possible that the annual revenue projection in the model was achieved in a weekend.
Buyer’s Group Update. For the second week in a row the buyer’s group has doubled in size. This is a program for installers by leveraging the aggregate scale in volume which levels the playing field while returning margin to installers across the Country. Through transparent pricing that we are actively negotiating with supply chain, you can not only see the trend line but actually lower your COGS. Join today at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 20th, 2020
More Rundown Tomorrow. First day of school made my day longer as we get back to regular scheduled programming. All the parents that are negotiating a back to school which involves tech support and multiple kids trying to sit still in front of a computer for 6 hours straight.
Buyer’s Group Update. For the second week in a row the buyer’s group has doubled in size. This is a program for installers by leveraging the aggregate scale in volume which levels the playing field while returning margin to installers across the Country. Through transparent pricing that we are actively negotiating with supply chain, you can not only see the trend line but actually lower your COGS. Join today at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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This is your SolarWakeup for August 19th, 2020
Trump Tweets Energy. “In California, Democrats have intentionally implemented rolling blackouts — forcing Americans in the dark. Democrats are unable to keep up with energy demand…”
Part 2. “…Meanwhile, I gave America energy independence in fact, so much energy we could never use it all. The Bernie/Biden/AOC Green New Deal plan would take California’s failed policies to every American!”
At 7pm. Friday night at 7pm it’s hard to understand how it’s solar’s fault that the grid had a shortfall in generation. The grid also generated 26GW of gas, much more than previous years on a similar Friday evening (h/t Julie Blunden for the research). The pushback from fossil folks is that regulators have been kicking out fossil generation in favor of renewables and not doing enough to shore up reliability, something that I got caught up in with on Twitter with a GA PSC commissioner pushing nukes. The reality is that unless our team gets to make the decisions on how to design the best grid, the solar industry can’t be blamed. Even in this situation, the solution is incredibly obvious with today’s technology. That’s why my frustrations have been vocal recently around taking away local resource adequacy purchasing from local CCAs and giving it to PG&E. Or ask the large scale solar operators how many times they’ve offered to add storage to existing solar plants are ridiculously low prices that would have allowed the shift to occur and cover the 7pm hour. Utilities could also contract with companies like OhmConnect to sign up millions of manual demand response participants. In short, unless we’re in charge, we can’t be blamed. That fault remains firmly with regulators for now.
Solar In Congress. In April 2019, Congressman Charlie Crist filed the Sunshine Forever Act, a bill to extend the ITC to 2029. I first met Charlie when he was the Governor of Florida and as a republican got the golden meter award from Vote Solar for an outstanding net metering policy he pushed for almost 15 years ago. That same policy is in effect today driving the second largest solar market in the Country. Tomorrow at 5pm, it would be my pleasure to have you join me as I talk about clean energy with Congressman Crist. For $20 (or more if you can) donation to Clean Energy for Biden you can be part of the discussion as well. Charlie has been a supporter of our industry for a long time and it would be great to make the event a big success.
Buyer’s Group Update. For the second week in a row the buyer’s group has doubled in size. This is a program for installers by leveraging the aggregate scale in volume which levels the playing field while returning margin to installers across the Country. Through transparent pricing that we are actively negotiating with supply chain, you can not only see the trend line but actually lower your COGS. Join today at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann