This is your SolarWakeup for August 21st, 2020
Climate As Top 4 Issue. Joe Biden gave his nomination acceptance speech late last night at the DNC. Standing alone in an empty arena behind a podium the former Vice President and Senator outlined the 4 great issues facing our country. A pandemic, economic downturn, racial injustice and acceleration of the climate crisis. In this SolarWakeup forum, climate is a top issue, it is our call to action so to hear it elevated to the last speech on the last day of a party convention gives me hope that the issue now has the platform we’ve been calling for. The work doesn’t end here, more work has to be done so whether your work is through Clean Energy for Biden, local campaigns or advocacy or talking about this issue to republican members, your voice is as important as ever. As Biden laid out, the climate crisis is the problem with an opportunity to create millions of great paying jobs and cause the investment of trillions of dollars.
California’s Energy PR Debate. Who is to blame for the multiple stage 3 emergencies causing rolling blackouts in California? The debate rages online. Couple of data points. The first emergency started at 7pm, yet solar is somehow to blame for this emergency. Secondly, there was more natural gas feeding the grid this Friday evening than the same Friday in the last two years. The argument is that renewable energy advocates are so powerful in California that regulators had to also cancel fossil fuel development and generation. CPUC, CAISO and CEC signed a letter stating that renewables were not to blame.
The Jobs In CleanTech. The governor of New Mexico is on Axios to talk about jobs in clean energy and I urge job training entities in solar to get themselves ready and professionalize their outreach to legislators. Solar, wind and the energy transition will cause changes that impact real people’s lives. Coal plant operators will lose jobs and so will miners and train operators for example. We must be a welcoming industry with training and great paying jobs, which I know we are, but not everyone does.
The Money In Solar. SolSystems buys $200million in North Carolina projects, Blackstone injects $300million in residential solar loans and DOE advances perovskite R&D. Not bad for a Thursday.
Batteries In Market. Yesterday you read about the LS Power battery in San Diego, the largest in the world. Based on reporting the plant only had an RA contract but operated on a merchant basis through the energy crisis. In Texas there were also several battery plants operating without existing off take agreements. It is entirely possible that the annual revenue projection in the model was achieved in a weekend.
Buyer’s Group Update. For the second week in a row the buyer’s group has doubled in size. This is a program for installers by leveraging the aggregate scale in volume which levels the playing field while returning margin to installers across the Country. Through transparent pricing that we are actively negotiating with supply chain, you can not only see the trend line but actually lower your COGS. Join today at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 20th, 2020
More Rundown Tomorrow. First day of school made my day longer as we get back to regular scheduled programming. All the parents that are negotiating a back to school which involves tech support and multiple kids trying to sit still in front of a computer for 6 hours straight.
Buyer’s Group Update. For the second week in a row the buyer’s group has doubled in size. This is a program for installers by leveraging the aggregate scale in volume which levels the playing field while returning margin to installers across the Country. Through transparent pricing that we are actively negotiating with supply chain, you can not only see the trend line but actually lower your COGS. Join today at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 19th, 2020
Trump Tweets Energy. “In California, Democrats have intentionally implemented rolling blackouts — forcing Americans in the dark. Democrats are unable to keep up with energy demand…”
Part 2. “…Meanwhile, I gave America energy independence in fact, so much energy we could never use it all. The Bernie/Biden/AOC Green New Deal plan would take California’s failed policies to every American!”
At 7pm. Friday night at 7pm it’s hard to understand how it’s solar’s fault that the grid had a shortfall in generation. The grid also generated 26GW of gas, much more than previous years on a similar Friday evening (h/t Julie Blunden for the research). The pushback from fossil folks is that regulators have been kicking out fossil generation in favor of renewables and not doing enough to shore up reliability, something that I got caught up in with on Twitter with a GA PSC commissioner pushing nukes. The reality is that unless our team gets to make the decisions on how to design the best grid, the solar industry can’t be blamed. Even in this situation, the solution is incredibly obvious with today’s technology. That’s why my frustrations have been vocal recently around taking away local resource adequacy purchasing from local CCAs and giving it to PG&E. Or ask the large scale solar operators how many times they’ve offered to add storage to existing solar plants are ridiculously low prices that would have allowed the shift to occur and cover the 7pm hour. Utilities could also contract with companies like OhmConnect to sign up millions of manual demand response participants. In short, unless we’re in charge, we can’t be blamed. That fault remains firmly with regulators for now.
Solar In Congress. In April 2019, Congressman Charlie Crist filed the Sunshine Forever Act, a bill to extend the ITC to 2029. I first met Charlie when he was the Governor of Florida and as a republican got the golden meter award from Vote Solar for an outstanding net metering policy he pushed for almost 15 years ago. That same policy is in effect today driving the second largest solar market in the Country. Tomorrow at 5pm, it would be my pleasure to have you join me as I talk about clean energy with Congressman Crist. For $20 (or more if you can) donation to Clean Energy for Biden you can be part of the discussion as well. Charlie has been a supporter of our industry for a long time and it would be great to make the event a big success.
Buyer’s Group Update. For the second week in a row the buyer’s group has doubled in size. This is a program for installers by leveraging the aggregate scale in volume which levels the playing field while returning margin to installers across the Country. Through transparent pricing that we are actively negotiating with supply chain, you can not only see the trend line but actually lower your COGS. Join today at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 18th, 2020
The Biden Era And Climate. The current state of energy is as volatile as ever. Oil, gas and coal is in steady state of decline both in production and new generation. Coal generation as a percentage of total is down big. This is going to cause a flywheel effect that leads us to the solution that is apparent to all, renewables, storage and demand response widespread adoption. Here are some thoughts on how the Biden White House would be able to take real action on day 1, borrowing some of the successes from the Trump time. Here we go.
A National Emergency. This is the obvious one, Biden will call climate change a national emergency. This executive action triggers access to powers for the branch including the movement of funds to protect Americans against climate change. Before you blast me for exercising the unilateral executive theory, read below. This power has been litigated to the Supreme Court which allowed Trump to move money from the military for a wall. As a prerequisite this will trigger several administrative options including a reverse MOPR or at least eliminating the DOE led bailouts of coal that the Trump admin attempted but only served to create market chaos.
The Rule Of Law. Kamala Harris was a San Francisco DA when she sued local polluters taking advantage of low income communities. Across the bay, a power plant powered by jet fuel just recently came down and will be replaced with a large battery for example. Once the national emergency is declared, the EPA will use emergency inspections to find generators, drillers, pipeline operators, coal ash ponds that are not complying with environmental laws that protect your water and air, especially for the less fortunate residents. Under Harris’s guidance in collaboration with the DOJ, government lawyers will take action for immediate compliance and temporary closures. (My expectation that most coal ash ponds will be found to not be in compliance for example) This national focus on compliance with clean air act or clean water act will drive the next step.
Let’s Settle For Speed. The first thing with litigation is that everyone including the plaintiff is looking for it to end as quickly as possible. The message will be clear, the government will see this through but wants to focus on compliance and a settlement is on the table. Much like Volkswagen is providing funds for electric vehicles across the Country, polluters will be setting up the 21st century version of superfund compliance funds. This will drive training, cleanup and replacement of generation not in compliance. Some of the best renewable energy policies were found in legislative, regulatory and legal settlements. My hope is we achieve the same thing but a scale that’s never been thought of before.
California As A Bellweather. California blackouts are not caused by solar, any decent reporter would get that answer from CAISO and utility executives (if they were honest). More importantly, the energy crisis would have been exponentially worse if there was no rooftop solar which offset gigawatts of need during peak times and is not accurately tracked by grid operators. So while SMUD wants to use kindergarten math to minimize rooftop solar’s value, what the grid needs is more solar on rooftops with more batteries installed by its side. Check out the CALSSA post on the topic.
Buyer’s Group Update. For the second week in a row the buyer’s group has doubled in size. This is a program for installers by leveraging the aggregate scale in volume which levels the playing field while returning margin to installers across the Country. Through transparent pricing that we are actively negotiating with supply chain, you can not only see the trend line but actually lower your COGS. Join today at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 17th, 2020
Why This One Matters. Today, I’ll give you the headlines of the weekend and why this election matters. First the politics. I don’t think climate change should be a partisan item, I wish that Americans could be republicans and care about climate change policies even if the policies differ from democrats. Over the past decade we’ve seen a congress that refutes climate science, renewable energy, energy efficiency and free market competition in energy production/delivery. That’s why I’m involved with Clean Energy for Biden because you will see the news over the weekend make it unavoidable, you will see rare forms of natural disasters and even learn about new ones perhaps. So join me on Thursday for a CE4B event with Congressman/Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist. I’ll be talking with him on how to tackle this issue facing us all.
The Plan. Tomorrow I will outline how the Biden/Harris administration should focus on climate change in the first 100 days and what they can do right away.
First Time In 20 Years. 2 times in as many days, the California ISO called for a stage 3 emergency and rolling blackouts. Even when the ISO lifted the emergency, PG&E continued its blackouts without notifying critical infrastructure that led to sewage entering drinking supply. High temperatures and loss of 1,500MW of central generation led to grid instability causing the emergency. The sad part is that this is avoidable and the entire regulatory complex is at fault for being captured by the utilities. As I tweeted this weekend, it’s beyond comprehension how PG&E is exactly where it was before the bankruptcy and nothing has change. This is avoidable and doesn’t require anything to get started. CAISO could contract with every homeowner that has energy storage to create a massive virtual power plant. Utilities could expand the program with OhmConnect and add a gigawatt of demand response. The governor could call for rapid solar expansion and require instant permitting across the State for residential solar plus storage, it’s on his desk as we speak. The solutions are here, we need to unwrap ourselves from this obsession we have that only PG&E and SCE can solve this problem.
Flee To Florida? Hurricane Isaias is what Floridians would call an elongated thunderstorm, Key West would party through the storm in non-COVID times. Meanwhile the infrastructure in New York and New Jersey is showing its weakness once again when it comes to hurricanes. I’ve spoken to a dozen folks from NY/NJ/CT area in the past week and they all had extended power outages. I guess it’s time to flee to Florida for when hurricanes come around. Our concrete homes, power poles and generators (solar included) will keep you running.
It’s Called A Derecho. California outages, wild fires and hurricanes aren’t the worst natural disaster in America this week. Iowa experience a derecho, a 120mph land hurricane that arrives with almost no notice. Iowans are out of power, some counties lost 80% of power and crops are destroyed across the State. Iowa is the center of attention for politics every four years and unfortunately for Iowans, the media is already gone and is not covering this. 14 million acres of crops are damaged, this will end up being experienced by all Americans when shortages reach supply chain.
For The History Books. The ice sheet in Greenland is melted beyond the point of no return. Basically more water sits on top of the ice sheet than what could melt and therefore will result in the ice sheet losing mass continuously. Our kids will read about our actions about the elusive ice sheet that has caused measurable changes in the gravitational field in Greenland today. Instead our kids will live with the measurable increase in water levels caused by the melt.
Fire Tornadoes. For good measure, a firenado.
Data Nerds. My latest podcast on data in imagery with Tim Rochman from EagleView Technologies. Catch it on your podcast app and leave us a 5 star rating.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 14th, 2020
2020 Forecasting. Wood Mackenzie analysts are doubling down on their 2020 revised forecast, saying that cash deals will be down 41%, leases down 21% and loans down by 23%. This downturn would continue through 2021. Here’s the problem with that forecast. Every major public company is telling a different story, private solar installers are reporting months well above pre-COVID and loan companies said that May was the best month in history, June beat May and July beat June. Those data points don’t compute with a down year. While we were hoping for a 25% YoY growth year, 2020 will still be bigger than 2019. I invite the analysts to join our next residential market conference call scheduled for September 1st to hear some great data points.
The Loan Market. The side point of the research spotlight is the state of the loan market. Loans are rapidly increasing in overall financings and I’d like to hear your thoughts on solar loan companies. There is a diverse set of companies offering the product so reply to this email and tell me what makes you pick your loan partner. It’s not the transparent market but maybe SolarWakeup’s mission of shining the light could be helpful.
Utilities Play EV Infra. Ten years ago I told a major IOU CEO that I thought he should ask regulators for the approval to build 10,000 charging stations across their service territory. Maybe that was a bit early but I wanted the utility to front run the demand and removing the biggest hesitation factor for consumers, where do they charge. It would have also locked up the access for the sites and maybe one day EV charging companies end up buying the land rights from gas stations. Private companies now lead the EV charging network and I can’t wait to see how the compete, partner, or rate base discussion goes.
Coal To Storage Transition. Vistra, the IPP know for fossil generation, continues to diversify into battery generation. It already announced a massive storage site in Texas and previous two projects at the former Moss Landing coal plant. Now it received approvals for a 4 hour 1,500MW site near their natural gas plant, which it says it will build once the market data allows for it.
Solar Module Waste. Hard to believe that we are at the point where the market for re/upcycling of solar modules is upon us. For me it was always a problem for another day so educate me on options available or best practices on thoughts for what can be done.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 13th, 2020
SPI Goes All Virtual. SPI was pushing to have some portion of the market meet in person until just a few days ago, trying to convince exhibitors to keep their booth space and send folks. The lingering cases, positivity rate and hospitalization surround this pandemic made their best attempts fall short. Most of us were simply unwilling to get on a plane and visit Vegas. I know that many of us can use a few days in Vegas but it will not be. The lack of SPI creates a massive hole in the SEIA budget, nearly $10million of profits from the trade shows goes into the SEIA annual budget to fund solar advocacy and there isn’t a way to make that up. Thus far, PPP funding is not allowed to flow to trade associations.
The Digital OS. Like most of you, SPI will also go virtual. We are nearly 6 months into the pandemic so it’s a good time to look at your digital pivot. What changes did you make, processes adapted in order to meet the new normal? We can now imagine and realize a touchless customer journey except for the ineptitude that most building departments have shown in using email and FaceTime to do their jobs. Some AHJs have simply delayed their processes further hindering economic recovery. Take an hour this week and meet with your leadership team to asses the digital systems you put in place, happy to write more about this if questions arise.
Through, Not Past. Moments ago I had a realization about 2020 and the pandemic. Since the start we’ve been talking about it as a temporary issue facing society and the solar market. It would come and then cases would drop enough for things to go back to normal. Instead we now realize that we are living alongside the virus through 2020 and potentially longer. Our work will adapt to it as well, every company is making masks at this point, I’ve been creating a collection of solar masks at my home with East Bay Community Energy and Utility API coming in early.
SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group. Your competition is joining the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group, transparent pricing powered by the market. The market is maturing and this is a big part.
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This is your SolarWakeup for August 12th, 2020
It’s Kamala. The VP pick is out and as predicted here last week, Senator Harris is joining the Biden ticket. The legislative headline right now is her environmental justice bill with AOC that is right down the fairway of solar advocates and our industries broader mission to do good. This opens the Senate seat in California and an interesting pick (though many say unlikely) is Kevin de Leon, former Senate Pro Tem and 100% RPS advocate. The Biden Harris ticket definitely sends a message to our industry that they view environmental issues as top of the to do list and our work is to hold them to it. That being said, you need to be elected before you can govern, which includes raising money. On behalf of the SolarWakeup family, you can show your support to the campaign here. This isn’t an election to sit out.
Time Of Big Modules. SNEC took place in China and PV-Tech visited the show. The story coming from the show is the increase in scale of modules, some doubling the standard 60cell modules in use in the market today. 500w, 600w, and even 700watt modules were exhibited as well as the expansion to 78 cells.
Everywhere You Land. Every person in solar has looked at the giant roofs without solar when they land at major airports, naked roofs. These naked roofs are a major dilemma for solar pros because putting solar on them is much harder than you think. Energy consumption is generally lower than potential output, tenants have leases less than the life of the solar plant, energy rates are low and many are owned by SPV holdcos. The market development needed to target this market is to view these roofs as land where the plant does not typically serve the consumer below. So we can talk about the 145GW market potential but reality is more complicated than technical potential.
Free Solar For Everyone. The lead generation ads are largely annoying, my friends send me the latest government program guaranteeing free solar all the time. But reality and lead gen is getting closer together with the latest loan product from Mosaic that is no payment for 12 months, not much different from other consumer products. Here is something you wouldn’t see though, the loan is provided by Webbank (per press release) which is owned by Steel Partners, which also owns roofing/solar player OMG. There is no market impact of that relationship but I thought it was interesting that a industrial public holding company is in solar with two portfolio companies and most executives wouldn’t even realize it.
Duke Earning Call, Tweet. Goldman Sachs analyst asked Duke executives a solar question, hat tip to Ben Inskeep for catching this tweet.
Tweet Of The Day. From Dave Pomerantz, it involves utilities, CEOs, private jets and safety.
Buyer’s Group. Your competition is joining the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group, ask them if you don’t believe me. The market is maturing and this is a big part.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 11th, 2020
The Edge Of Scale. Selling solar to homeowners is an even playing field. Of course there are some advantages to those with more cash in the bank or purchasing volume but nonetheless a small company can compete with the biggest installer. In the world of virtual power plants, contracts with utilities, that changes. This was the quote from Sunrun CEO, Lynn Jurich, on the earnings call yesterday, “We have the contract with the utility for grid services which gives us a customer acquisition edge.” To their credit and that of utilities, it is still early in this newly created market. There is a future where utilities engage in virtual power plants with consumers without the installers. The highlight of the call came from Ed Fenster (Executive Chairman) on the discussion of tax equity. “We prefer a high corporate tax rate,” Ed said then explaining that tax liabilities increase and create more supply in tax equity markets. It also improves the value of depreciation by about ten cents per watt. At the end of the day, Sunrun posted a strong quarter, 78MW installed which is 24% lower than the same quarter in 2019. Given that the entire quarter was under the weight of a pandemic, I’d say it’s better than expected. The company did lowball estimates for the rest of the year, seemingly tempering investor expectations for future upside surprise in my opinion. Earnings Slides.
COVID’s Impact In Q2. We now have the public earnings reports from solar players for the COVID quarter, Q2 2020. None of the reports show the worst case we saw in the SolarWakeup surveys, down 50%+, instead the worst was about 25% down year over year. Europe is showing a stronger solar market and stronger COVID recovery which we saw in the SolarEdge earnings. None of the solar companies were willing to talk about backlog but we know that backlogs were growing through the quarter. Halfway through Q3, those that have made the pivot to the new way of doing things have figured it out versus those that are struggling. Q2 also gave coverage for one time costs, Sunrun had over $15million and Enphase had significant convertible note costs, but that’s not buried in the reports of a quarter we will all hope to forget.
At Home Microgrid. Generac quietly announced the microgrid in a box. A transfer switch and brain system that seamlessly integrates a generator, battery and solar production. In this design, the generator and battery can be smaller and therefore more cost effective. Generac has two inherent advantages to Enphase and SolarEdge, they have the generator market cornered and millions of existing customers that have a transfer switch installed.
East & West Coast Acquisition. Sunworks, the publicly traded solar company based in California, has been acquired by Vermont’s Peck Company. The combined companies represent about $88million in revenue according to company statements. Without too much detail, this was a share transfer and thus leaves the combined company as a publicly traded one.
Bill Walton Comes Back. SolarWakeup friend, NBA Hall of Fame, all time best NCAA player, solar expert and CALSSA’s annual dinner motivational speaker, Bill Walton, is back in solar. He is the recently engaged spokesperson for San Diego’s Stellar Solar. If you’ve never heard Bill talk about solar, you’re in for a treat. Here we go!!!
Out of Many, You Benefit. Every major industry has group purchasing cooperatives and now solar does as well. More importantly than a lower price point, SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group gives installers transparency and removes other costs from the price. Credit terms, warehousing, rebates and shipping are all packed into the price which removes the transparency you need to operate your business. This isn’t a replacement, it gives you an option to the norm. More info, price challenge and sign up on our website.
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This is your SolarWakeup for August 10th, 2020
WFH Reimbursement. With companies having their employees working from home, some going permanently remote, the load profile is shifting for the grid. It also begs the question of how companies will provide stipends to their employees. You could imagine a stipend for a separate bedroom, high speed internet or energy consumption. Which company will strike the first deal to put free solar on employees’ homes with the company picking up the monthly bill?
GM To Investors, Is Pepsi Okay? GM is contemplating the spin-off of its electric vehicle business. This would be very good for that division, able to focus and deliver better products but it would be a disaster for the old GM. The old company shareholders would be left knowing that their business has a decade left before most of its market share evaporates, with exception for a few niche market segments. There is no way that this happens and the CEO should have enough conviction to say so.
The New First Solar. Last week I wrote about the new SunPower, shedding its manufacturing to focus on sales and install of residential and C&I markets. First Solar is doing the same but looks to be focused on being a module manufacturer, centered on the implementation of the series 6 module. It already sold its O&M business and is now looking to sell its development arm. Interestingly it cites headwinds in tax equity, given that the company was a major opponent of the tax equity extension a few years ago. Development platform deals appear to be heating up, rumor has several other firms also being acquired.
Venturing Into Solar Investing. Investing in solar related startups is going to get better. As we get digital and the energy production gets smarter, teams of bright minds will be able to change the way things are done. This inevitably gets faster and better through pivots and iteration. Solar investing, into corporates, is very limited though there are now more folks that appreciate the space that have made good money doing that. I toyed with the idea of a Wakeup fund to seed companies a few years ago but neither the pipeline nor the investor base was there then. Not sure how this plays out but I’d love to see a solar angel fund circling the startup universe.
The Veep Week. We are likely going to hear Biden’s pick this week on his vice presidential nominee. The noise around energy being a counterpoint is getting louder so we will cover that angle when it comes up.
A Price Challenge. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is presenting a price challenge. Take your favorite and most commonly used products and if they are on the price sheet for the buyer’s group, we’ll respond with your transparent cost for it. No frills, no negotiations, just the best price we could bring to the market using bigger volume. In the past week we’ve had outreach from every major manufacturer that appreciates the transparency and we look forward to adding more products to the portfolio. Of course you can always sign up and see for yourself.
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Yann