This is your SolarWakeup for July 29th, 2020
Stimulus Package Gets Stuck. DC politics are thick right now around the stimulus package. There was a path to a quick passage in the Senate but that will not happen which means your work to advocate for solar to have a chance to be included continues. Politics are a fluid race to the finish but the finish line is always moving, it’s also the industry we’re in so let us take a deep dive on politics, policy and solar.
Bipartisan Means What? Poll after poll shows that solar support from voters is bipartisan, in some cases even a swing issue. Solar pros often tout the bipartisan nature of what we do, and I agree with them. I also agree that solar is resilient to withstand most solar politics, the industry is still doing well under Trump which was considered a major risk. But, there is a caveat. Solar is not that bipartisan, most instances of solar market creation by State and Federal government happened when political power shifted from republican to democrat. I asked my Twitter followers for good examples and here are some of their views. NJ, VA, and MD are some examples. I think SC is an example where a GOP majority worked with the industry.
Why Does It Matter? 7 GOP Senators gave solar the bipartisan support that we seek as an industry, here is a public policy poll that shows you why it was sent. Maine, North Carolina and Arizona all have clean energy jobs as +40 when polled. Senators from all three States signed on to the letter, betting that the letter is the only action needed to get some of that vote. This is an important note to consider because it underpins the comment “solar will be fine regardless of who is in charge”. Polling and experience suggests that neither party wants to destroy the solar industry but differs in their willingness to grow the market.
Like It Or Not, Policy Matters. Status quo may be enough for some but growth in this market means being involved in policy. Look at the work done in Virginia by advocates that took dominion from <200MW to a future of 19,000MW. That is policy at work. Florida still benefits from the policy pushed in 2007 by then Governor Charlie Crist and Vote Solar. It is very dangerous for the solar industry to be spectators in policy, you can advocate hard for policies without being partisan. This is my call to action because we are still underinvesting in policy, your budget should include at least 1% of revenue for policy activities.
Just Look At Oil. The big 5 oil companies are spending nearly $1million per day just to lobby on the topic of climate. That doesn’t include the millions spent on PR and marketing consultants to get stories like today’s New York Times story. Add the State level lobbying dollars and you realize that we’re not in a fair fight.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 28th, 2020
FERC Gets Nominees. Trump nominated two commissioners to FERC yesterday, both of which had clean tech Twitter giddy, including a thought bubble that he may be lobbying for votes in the clean energy industry. Allison Clements comes from the Energy Foundation and NRDC, serving as the Director the Sustainable FERC Project at the time. Mark Christie is on the Virginia SCC currently and will allow the Virginia Governor to nominate a new commissioner to fill the seat. Christie is described as a by the book lawyer and has years of experience in regulatory oversight.
Ponies At The Petting Zoo. Some utility dockets are dry and otherwise uninteresting to the solar market. And if it seems that sometimes there isn’t anything in it for our industry, you would be right. That doesn’t mean that turning that docket around gets pro-solar overnight but solar advocates have gotten really good at the incremental gain, a step forward. Duke was proposing a grid plan that had the opposition of our advocates and now will amend their plan to include climate change as a factor. A step forward and we get to see the ponies.
A Clean Grid. Speaking of a clean grid, UK grid operators are forecasting negative emissions in 13 years. National Grid is the utility that is active on both sides of the Atlantic and could be a quick leader in the US with their lessons learned in the UK. Over the next decade it shouldn’t be hard for us to decarbonize the grid, I follow this strange bot on Twitter that tweets out EIA data on an hourly basis and coal is almost always the top generating source. Coal still represents 15x solar in terms of generation and it is the low hanging fruit when it comes to fighting pollution. It’ll take everyone to get this work done.
Two Points. Two points that I’d like readers to consider on having solar as a major part of the solution. First, utilities that are monopolies should no longer be allowed to lobby. Regulatory capture is too real and merging that with a lack of competition in a non-free market has shown to be a disaster. Either they are monopolies or they play politics, not both. Second, regulators need to figure out how to bring more solar to C&I rooftops. The large warehouses don’t match energy load to potential capacity but represent a distributed location for GW of capacity that needs to be leveraged.
Innovating Trade Groups. COVID has made trade groups get creative on reaching out to members and the industry. With a natural bias, CALSSA has been raising the bar including hosting informative web-based content every week since the shutdowns began. This week that includes content on inverters that is useful to installers across the Country. You get to hear from all major inverter companies with expert moderation. At $50, this is a steal for the content you get. Register Here.
Oil Money Will Get Sunny. Solar investments are often merged inside portfolios that also invest in other fuel sources. Bankruptcies, headwinds and oil major losses mean that those portfolios need to diversify and realign their investments. Don’t be surprised if you start seeing oil and gas related funds interested in solar, just look at the solar stocks. Solar was expected to suffer a deep and long pullback but appears to have had a few week drop and will come out with a growth year in 2020. Solar is a safer investment, aligns with the future politics and has the best return on investment in the energy space.
Friends. If this was forwarded to you or you have friends that don’t read SolarWakeup, please get them to subscribe. A friendly post on LinkedIn (tag SolarWakeup) would be greatly appreciated.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 27th, 2020
Take The Survey. SolarWakeup is hosting a survey on the current state of solar and the expectations for the rest of the year. 5 questions in 3 minutes. Survey closes at the end of today.
Hear The Results. Tomorrow morning, I’ll be joining Phil Shen from Roth Capital to talk about the results and a Q&A on the current state of the market. You can register for that call here.
7 For The Majority. A group of GOP senators wrote to the Majority Leader requesting the extension of clean energy tax benefits in the next stimulus bill. The list includes Senator Graham, who routinely plays golf with Trump. It also has at-risk Senators from Colorado, Arizona and Maine. Politically, Graham alone could make this a priority and get it done. The Majority Leader could also choose to help the senators in a tough political battle, we all know that solar polls well on both sides. Reminder, take action when you get those emails from your trade groups.
De-lobby The Monopoly. Last week we saw the indictment regarding HB 6, the coal and nuclear bailout bill, and the $61million bribe it took to get the billion subsidy passed. At first the governor said he didn’t want it to repeal it but later reversed course. Over the weekend, it also came out that First Energy was not alone in their involvement. Documents outlined by the Energy and Policy Institute show that AEP also got involved to the potential tune of $13million. This money apparently went to a dark money group that was involved.
Hook’em Ohms. Elon is bringing the cybertruck to Austin along with the 5,000 jobs that the factory will create. A big win for Texas and creates for interesting politics around clean energy for a state that politically has not been known for politics on the issue. That being said, Texas is one of the fastest growing solar markets for residential and utility scale and SpaceX has operations not too far from Austin.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 24th, 2020
SolarWakeup Q3 Survey. A quick 5 question survey to check in on your solar business. How is Q3 and Q4 shaping up for your company? Survey closes on Monday.
Solar Market Conference Call. On Tuesday, I’ll be joined with other solar professionals to talk about the current state of solar. You can register (free) for the zoom call here.
The California Solar Jobs. California has a great opportunity which will not cost anything to build back jobs in solar with a simple legislative fix that the Governor can lead on. By implementing instant permitting across all municipalities, the Governor takes charge and helps create even more jobs in the State.
Earnings Calls Coming. With Tesla’s earnings behind us, we’ve got the other companies coming up. Those earnings calls should get us back to proper forecasting for the rest of the year and an understanding of the impact COVID had in Q2. One thing I’m watching is where factories are being set up. Seems that solar companies are closing US factories this year under the cover of COVID, more to come.
Corporate Procurement. It’s been a week for corporate action in solar, can’t wait for someone to figure out how to bring in smaller private companies into the market.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 23rd, 2020
Bailing Out Coal And Nuclear. Taking a step back from the crime committed in Ohio to analyze what it means for the energy industry. HB6 had three primary components, bail out nuclear power plants, bail out coal plants and kill the renewable portfolio standard. All of this to primarily benefit one regulated, incumbent monopoly. Ohio is a conservative State where national image plays a role so you would think that supporting nuclear and especially coal would be a positive for legislators. In this case, the monopoly had to resort to bribing the Speaker of the House to pass a bill to allow them to get what they want. This either means that clean energy/climate advocates had enough power to stop the bill if not for bribes or legislators realize that the $60million means nothing to a utility that gets to pass their costs on to ratepayers. If you believe that the second is true, that the House speaker viewed utility regulations as a quasi-slush fund, then what makes you think this is unique to Ohio?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 22nd, 2020
Monopolies, Lobbying, Bribery and Indictments. The only major RPS to be eliminated happened in Ohio at the same time that the legislature bailed out coal in a nuclear bailout bill to the tune of $1.3billion. Ratepayers footed that bill and were sold a bill of goods by legislators and yesterday the FBI told us the other side of that legislative story. In an elaborate pay to play scheme with the Speaker of the House at the center, utilities are accused of bribing legislators for their support. The indictment is long and detailed and if you want to read the analysis, I recommend you read the twitter timeline from David Pomerantz. Meanwhile, the bill (HB6) remains law. Talk about bank robbers getting to keep the loot.
For Perspective. Solar companies closed down and people lost their jobs when HB6 was signed by the Governor of Ohio. That’s before ratepayers bailed out monopolies that are guaranteed a profit for power plants that are not financially viable. When legislators told us that the market will decide and we can’t pick winners and losers what they were trying to say is that solar can’t play with the big boys in the political arena. The regulatory capture for incumbents is real and I’m glad that the FBI investigated this case in detail.
Offtaker Before Development. In other news, that I view as one of the bigger game changers in the industry, Microsoft entered into an agreement with Sol Systems. The agreement calls for Sol Systems to develop, finance and operate 500MW and Microsoft will serve as the off taker. Great for corporate solar but even bigger for changing how solar development is done. By securing the off taker first, all of the development cost getting to that point is cheaper, faster and more confident. This is how every project should be developed going forward and until then, Sol Systems will have a huge advantage in the process.
New York Goes Big. The State, through NYPA and NYSERDA, launched a 4GW renewables procurement with 1.5GW coming from land based generation and 2.5GW from offshore wind. Big users should do big deals.
McConnell Drops The Ball. Corporates announced their support for the ITC extension with cash grant yesterday at the same time that McConnell downplayed any major inclusion of job creating policies in the next stimulus. I imagine that most solar companies would prefer an ITC extension than more PPP funds.
Biden Talks Climate. For a contribution of $100 or more you can join in an online discussion with the VP and the Veep. Joe Biden is joined by Julia Louis-Dreyfus on Thursday at 4:45pm, RSVP is due later today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 20th, 2020
John Lewis And Environmental Justice. I read the news of John Lewis’s passing with sadness. He’s been an example of leading by action while also working within the congressional process. As it pertains to work we participate in, Lewis often included references to environmental justice, clean air and water in his speeches. Our industry is more than just generating electricity fueled by the son, we have a greater responsibility to cast benefits far and wide.
SolarAPP Moves Forward. Rocky Mountain Institute is deeply involved in the SolarAPP launch and is updating their view of the endeavor. For those of you unfamiliar with SolarAPP, it is a project led by NREL and others to create fast track and instant permitting for solar. As installers and users of permitting systems, your involvement is starting to be more crucial. First you will want to educate yourself on the project. Second, installers will be asked to identify and lobby AHJs to get involved as pilot participants or adopters of the system. Instant permitting is one of the best tools we can use to move the industry forward, cutting the speed from contract to install in half and savings thousands of dollars in the process.
Virtual World Designs! Here’s the latest from our friends at OpenSolar, the free sales software we discussed in the interview with Birchy, it's co-founder. We talked then about the digital toolkit and how it supports inside sales and customer management online - now, today they launched their next generation design tool, OpenSolar 3D - the short video clip here has a nice overview (excuse the pun). Pretty cool technology flying around your customers roof live with them online, placing panels with pitch, azimuth and shading all automated in what they describe as an "immersive customer facing experience”. I know Birchy’s answer to yesterday’s question of “how do we scale 100% by 2035”: design and close your leads efficiently in a virtual, online customer experience with no site visit (COVID or not), then click a button to auto-populate SolarAPP to receive your digital permit, then and only then do you invest your money in driving a truck - and that’s to complete the install! Seems OpenSolar’s mission is to make that a reality for all installers, no matter the size (interesting given the Sunrun-Vivint news) - and deliver that for free. Good to see bold moves and innovation across the space. What else do you think changes the game on 100% by 2035?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 17th, 2020
Happy Friday. I hope you all have a nice weekend and perhaps get to spend some time getting away in the near future. In the meantime, post a nice comment about SolarWakeup on your LinkedIn and tell your network where you get your news in the morning. Here is your rundown.
Good News FERC. The NERA filing that threatened net metering and the federalization of state regulations was dismissed by FERC yesterday. Utilities will have to continue making their case for monopoly power at the state level.
Not All Roses. FERC also ruled on a redefinition of PURPA around how states can adjust contracts. It also lowers the standard for challenging the qualifying facility status. Reception online was tepid to angry, more analysis to come.
SMUD Tries Too Hard. I like the idea of SMUD wanting to go carbon neutral by 2030 but let’s look at the track record. SMUD, on more than one occasion, has come for solar net metering and tried to minimize that market. Lately, SMUD looked to kill the new home solar mandate. The large muni has the opportunity to be a national leader with solar, I hope they recognize that.
Next Week. The launch of SolarWakeup 3.0 is about ready to be announced and I thank you all for your guidance and help along the way. My goal is to fundamentally change the power dynamic in the industry to those that get more customers to go solar.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 16th, 2020
Checking In On Solar. Making it a quick rundown today, lots of interesting news to catch up on. Reuters does a trans-atlantic review of rooftop solar. SolarWakeup readers will catch that analysts have not adjusted their 2020 forecast which was brought to 30% down from 2019 when Corona started. We’ll be up in 2020, as I’ve said before.
Digging For C&I Gold. With their unique way of financing C&I solar, Wunder now has more dry powder behind them with a $100million capital raise. Congrats to the team that is looking to solve this large and untapped market.
Hedge The Gas Bridge. Natural gas is a bridge for marketing purposes only. In reality most of the gas utilities also want to repower with renewables as long as they can rate-base that change. One way to do it is to get regulators to start including the cost, or equivalent of, a hedge to guarantee the 30year fuel cost estimates for those power plants. That hedge is expensive if impossible to get, and ratepayers currently provide it for free.
V2G Has My Attention. Vehicle to grid technology is fresh and in the very early stages. I can’t wait to see how it works and how the market creates revenue streams. It’s going to be like uber for utilities except I don’t have to drive anyone, just let the utility take electricity from my car.
Vote To Make Impact. BlackRock takes its climate voice into the board room and proxy votes. 53 is a good start, I look forward to seeing it at 5,300.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Studies are out that there are almost 1 million jobs available in the clean energy industry with targeted stimulus in the next package. Congress should see that there is great value for growth right here.
New Pod On Midwest Solar. I talk with TJ Kanczuzewski, the CEO of Inovateus Solar, about his company’s recently released sustainability report. Both how sustainability impacts their customers demand for solar and how they recently installed a solar farm with zero waste. Catch it on your favorite podcast app.
Event Today. Clean Energy for Biden is hosting a discussion on the Clean Power Plan with the plans policy advisors. There are some great events coming up that are focused on the policy and how it can be implemented.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 15th, 2020
$2 Trillion Man. As expected, Joe Biden announced a $2 trillion plan green infrastructure plan. The plan centers around two fundamental truths, we can create a generation of great jobs while also achieving 100% clean energy by 2035. With less than 100 days to the election, I can’t emphasize enough how feasible this plan is. Both to get this done legislatively and have the leadership to push this as a must have for future generations. As I mentioned, my oldest turned 10 yesterday and I spent a good part of the day thinking about the future and the year 2035 kept coming up in my mind. 2035 is the year my oldest goes to college and 2020 is the year that Columbia opens its climate school. That being said, my kids know that they are bound to Hopkins.
The Tech Is Already Here. One of the realities with a 2035 plan is that we already know how to execute it and the costs already near competitiveness across the board. We need to scale up some of the manufacturing but otherwise the industry is ready to act. Where this falls short is regulatory leeway. Whether it means approvals for projects, allowing companies to enter into competitive agreements for energy or instant permitting for residential solar, the regulations still prioritize incumbent monopolies.
Location, Location, Location. The concept of buying the land around coal plants makes all the sense in the world if only for the proximity to the substation and transmission. Much like the PG&E project at Moss Landing, California, where the coal plant building is being retrofitted with massive banks of batteries. Why not just buy the coal plant instead?
Biden Talks Transmission. In a Clean Energy event with Biden which raised over $1 million for the campaign the Vice President brought up his focus on transmission not once but twice. It reminds me of when Senator Warren got into a policy discussion about net metering, this time with the VP wanting to get serious about reducing the barriers of implementation for cleaner generation.
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Yann