This is your SolarWakeup for June 1st, 2020
Liftoff In Florida. If you’re anything like me you thoroughly enjoyed and delighted in the SpaceX Demo-2 Dragon launch from Cape Canaveral in Florida this weekend. This included staying up most of the night and watching the crewed capsule approach, dock and equalize with the International Space Station. Whether you are 38 or 3 years old like my youngest, rockets taking off for outer space brings a smile to your face. It all seems too big and too impossible (I still don’t know how they land the rocket on a drone ship) but the combined capability of humans can really do anything.
A Uniquely Terrible Business Model. National Grid published its interconnection study results for 300MW of distributed solar last week. In order to get 90MW of that capacity built, developers would have to pay $75million dollars and wait 5 to 7 years in order to get the upgrades done. This should be part of the obituary of that business, there is nothing to be said about telling customers to wait 5 years to get an upgrade done and have to pay almost $1 per watt to get it. If the infrastructure can’t handle 300MW of solar, the system needs to be rebuilt and I’ve seen most of the infrastructure in Florida rebuilt in a couple months after a hurricane.
China, Modules and More. In China, the government is imposing new restrictions on manufacturing expansion given the delay in demand globally. In the US this means that prices are dropping and catching up to the market that is coming back nicely. Over the past few months, some of you have benefitted from the Solar Module Index which publishes the April numbers this week. The module index will expand into the product index and all installers to add other parts you are buying like inverters and racking per your request. This is data that comes directly from installers and shared with each other, I only play the role to consolidate the data. For the foreseeable future, I am also making the index free to get the margin back in line for installers that are suffering from covid related slow down.
The Margin Stack. I am writing a full blog post on the topic of margin stacking because the overall cost of solar to the homeowner is much higher than it should be and the margin that the installer receives is not reflective of it. Soft costs are a problem but more than a third of the price of solar for a homeowner is neither product, labor or installer profit. More to come.
Big Picture Matters. I am glad to see that solar has for a long time and will continue to view our industry as more than just a market to product clean energy. Without getting into topics much bigger than this newsletter, I now understand more deeply why caring about the big picture matters, access for everyone matters, more diversity matters and ensuring equality matters.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 29th, 2020
Per Capita Solar. Solar isn’t always where we think it is. A lot of it is installed in very large cities like Los Angeles and San Diego but when adjusted for population, it could be a lot better. How does your city show on this list?
The Real Pressure in Oil. There is a lot of talk about divesting endowments and pushing major climate goals for the oil majors. In reality, there are hundreds of oil companies in exploration, drilling, pipeline and more that are backed or owned by private equity. Most PE firms will have 20 oil companies for a clean energy investment and that is the real pivot that needs to happen. This isn’t a climate statement, the market is adjusting its goals of where the returns and capital preservation are maximized.
Top Modules Rated. PVEL, whose CEO visited with us on a podcast last year, is out with its annual module reliability scorecard. How does your module stack up and to what extent is your business aligned with a module supplier?
Mailbag Podcast. Send in your topics for next week’s podcast. I’ll be answering your questions about solar, the market or any other things that interest you. Have a great weekend!
Presented By Suntuity. Do you sell solar and see an opportunity to expand the markets you serve in a digital sales environment? Suntuity is expanding its salesforce and looking for more sales leaders to join their growing team. Based in New Jersey and servicing over a dozen States, joining Suntuity could be the sales boost you need. Learn more about our company today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 28th, 2020
Commercial Solar In Trouble. Financing rooftop solar for commercial customers is going to be more complicated than ever before. Putting most companies through a pandemic risk assessment increases the return requirement in a market already tough to make the financials work. This is going to drive more developers to either propose cash purchases as opposed to financing where a third party owns the solar asset. The tax code was amended to allow for the depreciation losses to go back 5 years but this market desperately needs a grant in lieu to kick start again. How the community solar or virtual PPA market adopts these customers will be interesting.
EVs Are Better (And Cheaper). Anyone that has driven an electric car knows that it’s a better driving experience. Even car companies have accepted this and adopting full product lines in this decade. EVs will nationalize once a cultural icon like the F-150 gets an electric version and fleets actually roll out large scale implementation. How regulators and utilities execute on this will be important especially as the market seems to be trending towards utility ownership of charging stations. The best part in this new data set, EVs are drastically cheaper assets to own as well.
Southern Co Wants Headlines. I’d like to fast forward to every utility announcing a 100% clean by 2050 goal. With every coal asset or older power plant to be first moved to a gas investment and then magically by 2050 it will all be renewable. The issue with the headlines and details isn’t the goal, it’s that none of the executives in the board room today will be there in 30 years and the goal doesn’t impact this quarters financial performance. Until the incentive of rate basing a new gas plant next year is removed and replaced by building a better solar plus storage asset, we will get more lofty goals with short term gas power plants being built.
Podcast Mailbag. Make sure you catch my podcast about the 30 million solar roof idea by John Farrell. The podcast is now available on spotify as well as other streaming platforms. Next week’s episode will be a mailbag where I talk about the headlines and answer your questions, send over topics you want me to cover.
Act On FERC. During the coronavirus pandemic, a small shadowy association just launched an unprecedented attack on our solar rights, and we need your help to stop it. This secretive group is trying to end the fundamental, state-based solar energy policy of net metering that allows solar users to earn fair credit for the surplus electricity their solar panels produce. The deadline to stop this attack is in just a few weeks. Tell the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to immediately reject this destructive and dangerous attack on your solar rights! Thank you for lending your voice to this important issue during this challenging time. If you want more details on the petition before FERC, click here or join Vote Solar on a webinar on May 28th at 3pm MT.
Presented By Suntuity. Do you sell solar and see an opportunity to expand the markets you serve in a digital sales environment? Suntuity is expanding its salesforce and looking for more sales leaders to join their growing team. Based in New Jersey and servicing over a dozen States, joining Suntuity could be the sales boost you need. Learn more about our company today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 27th, 2020
30 Million Solar Roofs. A few weeks ago I linked to an article that talked about using solar to create jobs in the post-COVID recovery. The idea was bold, build 30 million solar roofs (fully funded) in the next half decade. John Farrell from ILSR was the author behind the idea and the subject of this week’s SolarWakeup podcast. I hope you enjoy, subscribe and rate the podcast on your favorite app.
Midwest Solar Rush. Alliant Energy, the Wisconsin based publicly traded utility, is looking to increase solar in Wisconsin more than fourfold. In acquiring 675MW of solar projects, Alliant will expand the 150MW of solar exponentially and looks to be taking some cues from utilities like Florida Power & Light. The announcement talks about asking the regulators to push the docket forward and (I’m assuming) letting the utility rate base the asset. Like in Florida, I am not opposed to the concept of having the utility rate base large power plant, as long as it allows the distributed market to flourish based on market conditions. It can’t be all for one and none for all.
Faster Solar Installs. Hawaii is taking a big cut to the timeline between contract signing and project install for solar. At this point in the market it is one of the most valuable market drivers that politicians and regulators can push forward. We talked about the cost of permitting in the past and how SolarAPP is the tool that enables markets and installers to provide faster solar and a more pleasant customer process for homeowners.
The FERC Fight. None of what the solar industry wants going forward is possible if FERC decides that States no longer have a say in matters affecting electricity rates and rate structures, including net metering. In the biggest attempt to remove States’ rights, the New England Ratepayers Association (NERA), is asking for FERC to remove net metering as a State by State regulation. NERA is likely fronting for someone else, though we don’t yet know who, but this is much bigger than solar alone. Vote Solar is asking you to get involved and make your voice heard, this is your call to action, Tell the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to immediately reject this destructive and dangerous attack on your solar rights! You can also join Vote Solar for a webinar tomorrow to learn more about this national attack on solar during this pandemic.
Presented By Suntuity. Do you sell solar and see an opportunity to expand the markets you serve in a digital sales environment? Suntuity is expanding its salesforce and looking for more sales leaders to join their growing team. Based in New Jersey and servicing over a dozen States, joining Suntuity could be the sales boost you need. Learn more about our company today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 26th, 2020
Things Will Change. As the weeks of the pandemic move along, I am coming to realize that we don’t know what is going to happen in the future. There are predictions about peak carbon, peak oil and I’ve personally written about how the energy use will be redistributed with more people working from home. When will you get on a plane again and do you expect to work from home in 2021? These questions will drive much of what changes or not. For the solar industry, there is little that points to lower energy consumption in the home as opposed to the past. Self-reliance and backup generation will likely grow in importance during the sales cycle but the solar industry will not be alone in approaching this market with solutions. Utilities, generators and efficiency will also pursue the opportunity, look at how quick Generac was to get into California with generators during the wildfire crisis last year and with two acquisitions made themselves a real player in solar as well. The point is that every data point from every over analyzed consultant is based on a changed set of variables and the oil companies are front and center as well. No-one is driving and planes are grounded, oil usage is down and the postcard from the future has arrived in the form of a Mack truck. A world that doesn’t use oil at the same levels was something ESG and sustainability executives have been saying for years and predicted it would come some day. Oil companies must adjust they said, invest in solar and wind and batteries. How does an oil company get into the renewables space overnight and replace billions in quarterly profits? How would you do it? Can it be done? I don’t know who and how and where the battle by the big market will play out, but here is one thing that I am certain about. Those of you that service the homeowner, whether as a local installer, a regional one or a national player on the top 10 list, that market is going to top $20billion, $50billion and more. Today that market is slow, inefficient and lacks the transparency you expect in vibrant marketplaces. That will change with the growth and success of many, so things will change for everyone everywhere. For those of us fortunate enough to be in solar, hang on tight.
Catch Up. Subscribe to the podcast, no pod released today. Download the full survey results from the past 8 weeks. Catch the webinar with OpenSolar about digital solar operations and virtual selling.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 22nd, 2020
A Favor. If you enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to one or two solar friends. You’d be surprised how many people don’t get the daily solar news. If this email was forwarded to you, you can subscribe here.
Rumor Has It. You may have seen that Enphase stock slipped by over 10% at the start of trading yesterday. A major company shareholder is Chilean investor South Lake One LLC, an entity controlled by Quiroga Moreno Isidoro. Controlling as much as 13.5million shares after a buying spree of over 1.2million shares in November 2019 at a price just under $20. Isidoro participated in a fundraising round in February 2018 when he purchased 9.5million shares for $2.10 a piece. The rumor, which is well sourced at this point, is that he has sold his entire stake in Enphase for around $61 per share. This is typical, many early investors will sell some or all of their stake in companies when they have completed their phase into success. $2 to $61 is quite the investment for a 2 year period and his shares found new investors at these levels. This marks a key date in the corporate history of Enphase, what will the company do in their next growth phase?
Because You Asked. Not that it matters because it doesn’t influence my writing nor the stock prices. I own shares in basically every solar company including Enphase and Solaredge. I don’t pick winners, I am picking the solar industry as a winner and believe that those investments will be worth a lot more when my kids go to college than today. So if you work at a solar company, public or private, I’m rooting for your success at all times.
Tesla Energy Trading. Here’s the answer to anyone asking whether Tesla or any other battery company is better on energy trading. The answer is yes, absolutely. They are also betting and advocating that the grid will reward speed of power generation, revenue stacking and growth of monetization for microgrids. As revenue streams for batteries increase so does the development and integration of those technologies.
Have A Great Weekend. Stay safe and if it weren’t for the COVID situation I would invite you all over to help me pack the container!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 21st, 2020
Go West, Then Back East. Last week I told you about the end of my tenure as CEO of Quick Mount PV, by far the highlight of my career and a great sign that residential solar is a booming part of the market. Many of you have asked me what’s next and that answer will be clearer to me over the summer. What I do know about what’s next is that my family and I are moving back to Florida. We love California and loved being at the center of the solar industry. In a world where you live near your work, living in Walnut Creek was perfection. In a time of COVID, and flying cross-country is not feasible, we are choosing to live closer to family. So in a few weeks we will be trucking across the Country back to the Sunshine State. Over the coming weeks, I plan to spend as much time as possible talking to you about the market, what’s working, what’s not and look to identify the question about what’s next professionally. In the meantime, I want to help you in any way possible whether that is helping you refine your procurement strategy, connecting you with new capital sources or if you lost your job find a new one.
Full Survey Results. After 6 weekly tracking surveys over the past 8 weeks, the full result tabulation is available for review. You can see them here.
Early Stage Investments. Looking ahead beyond 2021, I realize that the reality of ITC sunset to 10% is possible. So I ask the many investors and IPPs on this distribution list, who is funding and taking a long term view on greenfield development for large scale solar. The strategy was a gold mine for many ten years ago, I want to hear from those with the thesis that it will be once again going forward.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 20th, 2020
A Changing World. Here is the long awaited data. Sales are still down 22% when compared to pre-COVID February sales. If you remove NY and MA from the analysis, sales are down only 14%. That being said, 58% of the respondents say that they are at or above pre-pandemic sales levels. 42% are hiring for sales and working capital positions are much better, many thanking PPP.
The AHJ Conundrum. 57% of survey answers say that their backlog is growing which still means that sales are going faster than installations, partly due to shelter in place orders and due to slow moving AHJs not issuing permits or doing inspections. Here’s the good news, 79% of the AHJs are doing digital permitting and 68% are providing options for virtual or video inspections. If this trend keeps up and then sticks around permanently, solar will be much better off for it.
Inverter Landscape. Public markets love the solar industry through inverter companies. Enphase exceed all-time pre-COVID highs by almost 15% today, reaching an all-time high of $70 per share. Solaredge is close to the all-time high reached just prior to COVID starting to impact the market. PV-Tech does a nice job of giving you the global view on the various players that trade publicly.
Enphase Golf Clap. A golf clap is a signal of support and congratulations when everything else is so quiet. The shot, the strategy is all happening in front of us but if you don’t pay attention you may miss it until you hear the applause. What am I talking about? On Monday of this week, Enphase launched an online store for their products in Germany. They had already launched a store in the US in 2019, which you likely haven’t seen because the US store pricing was almost double what you pay when installers buy from distribution. The US platform most likely served as the testbed for everything syncing and working in the back end. The German store is selling product for about 15% less than the US store but with discount code system built into the platform they could be given to installers and bring pricing much closer to current levels. An online platform done right will increase the almost non-existent market share in Europe while also significantly increasing margins.
What It Means. Most manufacturers that sell into distribution don’t test this openly because what happens if distribution gets upset and stops buying from you. Enphase and a few others have the luxury position of being a product that customers want, distribution needs to sell the product in order to be a value added resource to installers. The signal, in my humble opinion, is that Enphase wants to understand the purchasing behavior better. More importantly, the company is kindly telling distribution partners that they need to be more consistent on how they price their products. The inverter index that SolarWakeup has quietly been checking, shows that the same inverter can move by $10 or $20 week by week, which is 3 to 6 cents per watt for most installers. GTM has the residential marketshare for Enphase at about a quarter of the market and Solaredge at more than double that. Look for that to flip in 2020 and 2021 in residential US market segmentation. An online store may seem small and quiet, but trust me when I say that a big and important conversation is being had behind the scenes that could reshape how the solar ecosystem functions and I love this innovation.
Listen Closely. Thanks to all that joined for yesterday’s Roth conference call about the solar market. If you enjoyed that and want to hear more about my live conversations, check out my interview with Rob Newman from Nearmaps about aerial imagery. Please forward this email to one colleague and ask them to subscribe to the newsletter, let’s get everyone in solar reading every morning.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 19th, 2020
Join Me This Morning. The solar market is moving quickly and the survey results will be released on a call about the market this morning. Join us, you can register for the webinar here. It’s at 10am EST.
Margin Stacking. I remember 30 years ago going to the travel agent with my father. We sat in a mall, where the nice agent showed us a green screen of flight options, in this case flying PanAm from Hamburg Germany to Florida. There was no transparency in the pricing or competitive options to the PanAm flight and therefore we rarely took the plane. Today, you and I can go on an app and see hundreds of variations of flights by city, date, time or connections before deciding to fly. COVID aside, airlines and travelers won when transparency was created. It also made every level of margin become more transparent, hence the fees for luggage, exit row seats and faster boarding. You get what you pay for. Solar in 2020 lacks that transparency for most market participants at this point and that’s something we should all think about fixing. It is what I am thinking about constantly now as I ponder what’s next, quality and reputation should be the leading drivers of success in solar, not unknown unknowns like margin stacking. More to come.
Measure From 12,000 Feet. In this week’s SolarWakeup podcast I talk with Rob Newman, the CEO of Nearmaps. Nearmap flies planes all over the world including your house, three times per year. These planes fly between 12 and 18 thousand feet and measure your roof with accuracy of a couple of inches. For solar, it enables installers to sell projects with accurate designs without ever stepping on the roof until install day.
Will SPI Happen? While early spring events like GTM’s Summit had to move to the fall and Midwest Solar Expo has gone virtual, no word on SPI in September. SPI is a crucial source of funding for SEIA and SEPA but this year’s event is in California where distancing protocols will be stricter than other States. SPI’s website still appears all systems go but the survey respondents, by a margin of 74%, said they would not be comfortable attending.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 18th, 2020
Forecasting 2020. There are two rules in being a public company that executives can live by both driven by overdelivering. In a crisis like COVID, most companies will underpromise publicly and then quietly spread whispers about positive outlook. This ensures that expectations are reachable but no investor thinks the company cannot weather the storm. The other way is to be contrarian and that is more situationally accurate for solar right now. Almost every solar company has withdrawn guidance and spoken with optimism. Sunnova is taking the other path by reaffirming their 2020 guidance. In a single sentence during the earnings call, Sunnova put it on the line in 2020 and putting their teams on notice. This is the year that execution is key because underdelivering on expectations is a Wall Street sin you don’t want.
My Take. If you want to know what is going on in the solar market and my update on the survey data that will be released on Tuesday, you can register for the webinar here. It’s at 10am EST on Tuesday.
SunPower Enhances Focus. It was a big week for SunPower gaining regulatory approval for the split between the module business and the ’services’ platform/dealer network. The company also sold its O&M business which goes further in raising funds and reducing operational expenses at the company. In a few quarters it will be difficult to differentiate between SunPower and Sunrun and to a certain extent Vivint Solar and Sunnova. Each has one or more of the following attributes: direct sales, dealer network, self install, outsourced sales channels, subcontracted installers and all have their own funding structure. Game on…
Big Modules. 400W, 500W. Pretty soon we’ll be talking about real modules. The first ever quote for modules I got was in 2006 for $3.95/watt for a 195W module (sans tariffs).
Supercharge Use Drops. Elon tweeted a graph of Supercharge usage that spans the past year and peaks in December/January. A few weeks ago charging usage went to 30% of the peak in both North America and European geographies. It’s on the way up again, close to 50%. But will it ever go back to the 100% mark, adjusting for the increase in cars on the road? Utility planners around the Country are studying this image to understand consumer behavior post-COVID and if they are honest with regulators will likely have to ask that homes install more solar. Why? Even if 20% of those in the workforce transition to working from home, grid infrastructure is going to have to adapt quickly and likely cost ratepayers billions. More to come
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Yann