This is your SolarWakeup for May 15th, 2020

Press Release Day. If you’ve been reading SolarWakeup for awhile you know that I avoid press releases like the plague but not today. There are three announcements that came out yesterday (don’t release news on Thursdays) that you need to know about.

Tax Equity Getting Done. Sometimes the most interesting stories in the news don’t actually get covered in a meaningful way. $40million was raised in a tax equity partnership to own DC solar projects, a niche market that has its complications but can be profitable for those that do it right. Mike Healy of New Columbia Solar has been a longtime solar professional is behind the interesting transaction that is getting done right in the middle of a pandemic. So while you may not see it in regular coverage, trust me when I say that this deal getting done now is a strong message of optimism for solar. Not just that it’s getting done now but it’s DG, portfolio of assets and a market with policy complexity. Go into the weekend with a positive outlook.

Enphase Goes Commercial. Just when you’re getting used to the way things are, a headline makes its way to your screen. Enphase has been laser focused on residential market share growth and currently sits in second place according to GTM. Then comes this headline for a portfolio of commercial and multi family projects that is being designed with the flexibility of micro inverters. In a market that has been dominated by string inverters, the need for rapid shutdown and desire for unit level monitoring/optimization, is opening engineer’s minds to other options. I’ve spent the last week asking people around the industry, what solar looks like in 3 years but reading the headlines may be setting that stage.

Solaria Is Coming To Play. Solaria, the module manufacturer of aesthetically pleasing black modules, is adding senior leadership. In what seems like a change of leadership, it is, the new CEO and President actually represent a shift towards business strategy and execution. Like a choreographed business plan, Solaria released a 400W module a few months ago and now Tony Alvarez takes the CEO spot and Howard Wenger becomes President. Many of you know Wenger as a longtime staple in solar, former President of SunPower and one of the original solar policy advocates dating back to the 90s. Alvarez increases the Cypress Semiconductor leadership in solar adding to the many executives that joined Enphase from Cypress. Big moves for a big module, add this variable to your vision of the solar future.

So Is Solar. EIA data is showing that coal is on a major decline this year and renewables are adding to their gains in the energy mix. The data is compelling enough that New York Times covered the shift. That doesn’t stop a US Senator from North Dakota from publicly tweeting about saving a coal plant that neither ratepayers want to pay for (it is a financial loser) nor the utility wants to keep open. With Great River Energy planning the closure of the plant, Cramer wants to keep it open. First, I empathize with the community, the plant is in the middle of North Dakota and must be one of the major economic drivers of the community. That being said, what does it say about the coal industry that is bankrupting in real-time and does not answer any question related to capitalism? Even with its struggles, the industry is able to push political power to a US Senator’s twitter account.


What Do You Need? I’ve spoken to between 30 and 40 solar installers this week to answer this question. What is the biggest issue facing your business as you rebound and grow post pandemic? The industry is facing MAJOR margin stacking against it while also being the lifeblood to everyone in the ecosystem. Without a strong installer community no-one succeeds including distributors, financing companies, manufacturers or consumers. I’m one person with a newsletter but if I learned anything over the passed 15 years, we need a strong market to be a profitable market.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 14th, 2020

History Lesson. David Freeman wasn’t a name that I was familiar with before yesterday but the name means a lot to those that have been in solar longer than me and they shared some of those thoughts with me and I thought you should hear them as well. David passed away this week at the age of 94. He led TVA, LADWP and SMUD during his career in power. The solar overlap includes the original SMUD PV Pioneer program which started the path to the million roof initiative that California celebrated late last year. Some have told me that much of California’s solar success wouldn’t have been able to get to where it is today without his leadership.

Job Growth Halted. The pandemic is having its impacts on jobs around the Country including clean tech. According to the latest report by ACORE, 600,000 jobs have been lost in the industry. Not only is it impacting those sidelined from the construction jobs but it is also impacting really good employees on a more than temporary basis. We need to find the bold policy initiatives that will catapult the market back into growth mode and get people back to work as soon as possible.

AOC Picks Climate. There was question about if and how AOC would get involved in the Joe Biden campaign and we got the answer. She is co-chairing the climate change campaign committee with John Kerry. It highlights the importance that the issue has in the campaign especially for the ‘young people’ that AOC and Sanders were targeting during the campaign. It also means that Biden is willing to be pushed far on energy/climate change issues.

The Pod On Spotify. For those that asked, and thank you for doing it, SolarWakeup Live! The podcast is now available on Spotify. Do your thing and share it with friends and colleagues. We had an informative and forward looking interview with Andy Klump from CEA this week and next week will have my interview with Rob Newman from Nearmap to talk about how you never have to get on a roof to measure again. 

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 13th, 2020

This Week’s Podcast. I talk with Andy Klump from Clean Energy Associates (CEA). CEA works with companies to help them procure and quality check equipment like modules and batteries. Andy usually lives in Asia but is currently stateside while the pandemic keeps most of us in our homes. I spoke to him about the status of factories, how to make sure you get the best quality equipment, and what would happen if the ITC grant requires domestic content. He also makes some bold predictions about where prices for modules could go. Check out the episode and do us a favor by subscribing and rating.

Elon’s Alameda Drama. There is going to be a time in 2020 where the location of your business has an outsized impact on the success of your business. Tesla’s Fremont factory is going through that now. I’m not saying that Alameda is right or wrong, that’s for others to opine on, but the fact that the factory is in Alameda versus Michigan or 30 something other California Counties means that the factory is still not operational. The same is true for solar installers which lacks coordination with science. Bay Area counties are letting solar with storage be installed but not without storage. That means that installing solar in this area is locationally bad for business.

Time To Buy. Engie is out and public about wanting to do more in US energy storage, renewables and offshore wind. Engie has been one of the most active corporate investors in the market and if anything they see now as an opportune time to do more.

The Pivot Is On. The biggest reason there is a delay in getting you the results from last week’s survey is that there is now a distinct difference between installers that are investing in pivoting to new tools and processes while spending more on lead generation. The good news is that we are seeing the best levels of sales since the start of the pandemic. As installers, now is the time work together in friendly competition and find that the combined volume of the marketplace gives you the power.

SolarWakeup Is Hiring. Early bird gets the worm, a job posting will be going live next week for inside sales at SolarWakeup. If you know someone interested or interested yourself, send me a note. 

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 12th, 2020

Post Pandemic Impact. In reality the entire rundown today could have been some version of ‘COVID recovery needs to be climate solution’. This is the overlap of politics, regulations and economics that has an impact on our work beyond the recovery. Realists will say, nothing will change, I even said it to someone on a call yesterday. But the answer is that there is more to politics than what Senator McConnell wants because 50 States also look to find a way to get Americans back to work. Permitting can be a federal act of congress or it could be driven by your state and local leaders as one example.

Buffett’s Day In The Sun. A week after Buffett said he regrets his $10billion oil investment there is a double headline day for Berkshire, both from an off taker perspective. NV Energy’s project with Arevia Power got the green light from the feds while Pacificorp is readying a huge RFP for renewables. While this isn’t the sunniest region for the most part, there is no doubt that the storage aspect of the RFP is going to be breaking records and could make for interesting timelines and modeling around the ITC.

It’s a Global Market. I looked at the global inverter market share and had to do a double take for two reasons. First, 2019 found 126GW of solar installed around the world. Second, there are a lot of names on the list that don’t make a mark in the US market. That either means there is much more upside for US leaders abroad or for the market share list in the US to change.

Talking Solar. Join me next Tuesday on a call with Roth Capital’s Phil Shen. This is the 4th call we’ve had together since the pandemic started and created a lot of clarity for those that dialed in including a Q&A segment. You can register for the free call here.

Sending Good Thoughts. All of you know Frank Andorka, long time solar writer and former rock star solar correspondent at SolarWakeup. Frank has been in a battle with COVID-19 for over a month including a multi-week stay in the ICU near his home in Ohio. Frank recently moved out of the ICU but remains in the hospital. Please keep Frank in your thoughts and prayers, remembering that this pandemic is indeed close to us all in one way or another. Find him on Facebook, if you wish to reach out directly and leave him a kind note.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 11th, 2020

My Update. Just over 22 months ago I joined the team at Quick Mount and moved my family to the Bay Area. After 13 years developing, financing and leading teams in C&I and utility scale solar, I joined the residential solar segment. Quick Mount revolutionized the mounting space going back to 2006 and in a competitive market I was asked to get Quick Mount back to its leadership position. What originally was estimated to be a 3 year process, ended up in a sale of the company in 14 months from the moment I arrived. The team was best in class and ownership trusted us to grow it with great additions and success followed with a new strategy implemented. With the turnaround and sale complete, I remained with the acquiring company to help with the integration and now is the time to move on to find the next great company in solar. The past 2 years have been the greatest time in my professional career and a real sign of the maturity in solar today. In the meantime there will be time to catch up with family and consulting while the opportunities present themselves as they have in the past.

The People. If I learned one thing in the last 2 years it is that the people in residential solar are amazing and what’s proof in the past month is that their resilience is like no other. I’m overjoyed to have had a chance to work with this group of solar professionals and look forward to doing much more with you.

The Market. I published my bullish outlook of the market a few weeks ago which has now been confirmed by half a dozen public companies during their earnings calls. In my interview with Palmetto’s CEO and President we talked about how the company had some of their best sales in the past month and I predicted that 2020 wasn’t going to be a down year compared to 2019. I believe that not only is 2020 going to be a better year than expected but I see great promise in the years ahead, investors are saying the same by buying in on the company stocks. Whether it is public or private markets, solar’s investment environment has never been better.

SolarWakeup. SolarWakeup will continue publishing the newsletter and expand into serving the solar market with reports and information. Many of you have already participated in the module index which will expand its reach and value that it creates for manufacturers and installers alike. Just like Expedia expanded air travel, so will a transparent marketplace for installers. You already see manufacturers expanding clarity with online stores and dealer networks as proof of the path forward. More to come on this tomorrow. 

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 8th, 2020

Virtual Edition Rewind. You can catch yesterday’s virtual edition of SolarWakeup Live! About virtual sales and digital operations here. Thanks for all that joined.

Big News Monday. Stay tuned for some big news on Monday. In the meantime, here is the one thing that caught my eye in reviewing the earnings slides for each report outlining the performance in Q1 this year. Note that COVID impact largely started with two weeks left in the quarter and the commentary is more indicative of what the future holds. That being said, there is a consistent message that Q2 will be 30% of 2019 and we have already hit bottom.

Sunrun. 2020 brings thus far the highest percentage of leases as a function of total projects, back to early 2018 levels. Q1 this year was bigger than Q2 2019. Slides.

Vivint Solar. The company also exceeded Q2 of 2019 and every quarter in 2018. System installation cost are the highest they’ve been in years, unsure what would have caused that. Company now has cumulatively installed 1.3GW of solar on homes. Slides.

SunPower. Slides are showing the company in a quasi split environment, anticipating the manufacturing to go away in 2020 to the Maxeon entity. The manufacturing plants are either back up and running or scheduled to. Balance sheet still shows the 2 million shares of Enphase the company owns from the sale of Solarbridge a few years ago. Note to SunPower execs, anything you want to do for my Solarbridge inverters on my house circa 2012 would be appreciated. Slides

Enphase. In Q1 2019 the company generated net income of $2.7million. In Q1 2020 that increased to $68million with margins at almost 40%. The stock is trading nearly at pre-COVID levels while upside is still huge given revenues are less than half that of Solaredge and GTM reports market share to be about half in US residential. Slides

Solaredge. The company shipped more optimizers and inverters and delivered higher revenues in Q1 2020 than in Q4 2019. In this quarter that company shipped 1.8GW of inverters. Slides

First Solar. Here’s some scale for you, the First Solar pipeline is over 12GW now and their module roadmap presents a 500W module in the near future. Not too bad for low efficiency thin film. The manufacturing plants are up and running at nearly full capacity. Slides

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 7th, 2020

Last Push. Fill out the survey which closes today at noon. We’ll be releasing the data next Monday. 

Podcast. Would love to hear your thoughts on the podcast, where we focus on the content and not so much on the production. A great episode with a big prediction from me at the end, check it out here, rate and subscribe. 

Cleanup At Oil Well #4. Oil wells are apparently being abandoned by companies and unfortunately causing many to lose their jobs. It is also causing environmental disasters in rural communities across the Country which are asking for government to hire those workers and cap the wells. Right after they do that, they should pay them to go through a solar training program and we can help place them into installation jobs in solar.

Solaredge and Sunrun Report Earnings. A trend is coming out in the earnings calls that the bottom in residential solar may be behind us and Q3 could be better than expected. A few more companies need to report so we get the whole picture but I tend to agree with the positive sentiment going into the second half of the year. The difference will be seen in how companies adapt to the way of working in their areas and how well their building departments react.

What’s Your Virtual Future? I am starting to hear from many of you that working from home is the long term normal for you regardless of the shelter in place rules. Now that you have seen how it is possible, as soon as the kids go back to school, you don’t want it any other way. This is also going to impact the conference circuit we’ve been on in the past decade. One trade show, Midwest Solar Expo is going virtual. I toured the concept yesterday and I was impressed. It’s an environment where you can walk through exhibits and auditoriums like you do at shows. The coolest part is the 3D sound of conversations as you walk through the floor. 

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 6th, 2020

Get Your Survey On. A great response yesterday from many of you, let’s get one more push for the tracking survey to see how far from the bottom we have bounced back from. Please contribute to the survey before we close this tomorrow.

New Pod and Live! Last week I interviewed the CEO and President from Palmetto Clean Technology. As a mostly digital and remote solar company that supports residential solar execution, I wanted to see how the pandemic was impacting their operation and what their perspective was going forward. We also talk about their launch of a working capital solution. Don’t forget to subscribe and rate the podcast. You can also join me live! to talk about digitizing your business operations on Thursday morning pacific time, register here.

Impact Of COVID. I am starting to gather my thoughts on the market piece by piece which I will share more in the next week. This week we have earnings calls from solar companies including Enphase and Solaredge which give us a really good indication of where we are. Yesterday Enphase talked about Q1 which was stronger than Wall Street expected and guided to a COVID impacted Q2. During the call they mentioned what we at SolarWakeup have seen in the survey, we’ve hit the bottom and rebuilding the pipeline, backlog and getting back to work. More to come on this.

A New Loan Player. It’s the most obvious move in solar that you may be surprised to hear it. SunPower raised $1billion to finance loans and leases originated by their top of class dealer network. Partnering with Tech Credit Union, a long time solar player, SunPower will be lowering their financing costs and possibly see upside in any potential securitizations down the line. I will be interested to see how much of the financing efficiency flows down to the dealers when compared to traditional loan providers.

Electricity As The Indicator. Italy is seeing an uptick in energy consumption, a reminder that overall consumption is an economic indicator and unfortunately also a precursor to increase in pollution. How much goes back to the same old ways versus a new normal?

What Does Local Mean? Joel Makower from GreenBiz talks about an interesting topic that has personally spent a lot of time in my mind. I moved to the Bay Area almost two years ago to be close to the center of solar, being local to many of you. Now we’re close but I may as well be sitting in Paris. The opposite is also true, traveling to see family in Florida was easy 2 months ago and something we did often. Will I get on another airplane this year? Will you? At the end of the day, the most local of things in my life has been this newsletter, the relationships have no withered and actually grew in the past 2 months. Today is a big day as yesterday we reached 5,000 subscribers and I don’t take it for granted that every day a huge auditorium full of dedicated solar professionals reads these words. 

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 5th, 2020

Survey #6. Dare I say it? You all are slacking with the survey contributions. They went from weekly to bi-weekly. Here is an example of how the data gets used: two weeks in a row your contributions say that building departments are slowing their use of digital solutions and not getting you permits. Regulators, who read this newsletter, contact me to see who is doing a good job and I introduce folks that then deliver digital permitting. At the same time, people with access to legislators are retelling your aggregated story to push for legislative solutions. My point is that my opinion doesn’t get the job done, your voice needs to come out. Fill out the survey. 

Thursday’s Webinar. We have less than 20 seats left for the webinar on digital and virtual lead generation to sales solutions. If you are trying to understand what goes into having a digital operating system for your company and investing more into lead generation, join us on Thursday. You can register here

Resi Capital. The survey has yet to say that resi solar is having a capital issue for loans or leases and a new capital raise by Spruce seems to second that motion. Great to see

IRP Growth. Dominion adjusted their long term IRP which changes the game for their solar and storage projections. Early reporting doesn’t show what this means for their coal and gas forecast nor how this is impacted by COVID related changes in consumer behavior.