This is your SolarWakeup for April 9th, 2020
Time Is Tight. Here are some things you can do in the absence of my commentary today. Not sure how you are faring in these insane times, but it’s starting to make my head spin. Times are tough so I appreciate your donation of time, knowledge and resources.
Educate On Permits. SolarAPP is a project to get building departments to adopt instant and no-touch permitting for solar. Sign up for their mailing list to keep up to speed and get involved. Link
Join CALSSA. State policy is important and with events canceled across the board, your membership is more important than ever. Link
Donate To Vote Solar. Want to make sure that we don’t lose track of regulatory policies across the Country? Give $1 to Vote Solar. Link
Contact Your Member. Write a note to your representatives to let them know how your business and job in solar is doing. Ask (nicely) for things that could help like PPP, ITC extension, ITC grant or federal solar permitting policies. Link
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 8th, 2020
Publish Your Posts. I’d like to highlight your thoughts, changes and questions that you are writing about on your company pages. Times like these I find myself wondering what I’m missing and that’s why the survey has been a great tool to get information from the industry and merge it with my thoughts. If you posted any blogs, send them over and I’ll use them in the rundown.
Sales Decline May Have Bottomed. Keyword is may, if you look at the results from last week’s survey and I compare to the ongoing results of this week’s survey, it looks cautiously optimistic. If you are a residential installer, please add your responses so that we can gather this data point with more precision.
Working Capital Concerns Appear. More than 70% of this week’s responses are saying they are concerned about their working capital position. Concern isn’t the same thing as actually having issues but it measures the sentiment across the market. That being said, the overall ecosystem appears to be willing to work through these issues caused by outside circumstances.
Conf Call. For those of you that joined yesterday, I hope you were able to get good information from the panel discussion I held with Roth. We’ll host the next call on April 22nd. Hope you can join us.
Survey Link - Provide your input now, survey closes at noon today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 7th, 2020
Paycheck Protection. Let’s do a quick rundown today, lots going on. By now most in solar have applied for the paycheck protection program, the $350billion SBA loan that forgives most of the uses you need the money for. The problem is that the money hasn’t started flowing, not even close because banks are accepting applications but aren’t clear on the underwriting or funding process. As all of this happens in real-time, please let me know when you are able to get a loan funded, this will help others get through this.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 6th, 2020
Survey #4. The policy discussions for the next stimulus package are in full force. With the paycheck protection plan bound to be oversubscribed in the coming weeks, Congress will come back to do more. The information you provide in the SolarWakeup survey helps us tell the story of the resilient industry that we are, even in the face of adversity. All of your responses are confidential and you get to see last week’s result when you fill it out. Please participate by clicking here and share this LinkedIn post with your network.
Market Impact Conference Call. Tomorrow morning you can join me and Roth’s Philip Shen on a conference call to discuss the survey results and the depth and duration of the COVID impact on the solar industry. If you want information about the call, contact Phil at pshen@roth.com. He also publishes great analysis on some of the publicly traded solar companies, ask him to be added to his list when you email him.
A Tweet Tells The Story. Congressional leaders have soured on the idea that the next stimulus bill will include infrastructure. Yesterday, Trump gave some comments foreshadowing more support for the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has been doing a good job on the public relations front, making Americans feel bad about their pending financial troubles. I know that solar tries hard to put on a brave face but we should be honest and out front about the cash flow issues solar is facing during this pandemic affecting us all. Americans can’t empathize with issues they are not aware of.
An Impossible Experiment. We can actually see the positive coming out as many of us sit on our front porch working from home. The air is cleaner everywhere in the world, sights are being seen for the first time in centuries. Snowy mountaintops in India, clean water across the world and emissions from cars are down almost entirely. The political discussion was whether humans impact emissions and we could have theorized about the impact cars have but taking them off the road for weeks/months was never feasible. Now we have the results and it is undeniable that we have to get to electric cars without delay. We can’t make EVs the fun project between GM and Honda, they have to be charged up to take each other on. Trillions of revenues are on the line and the future of the world population.
Fill out the survey, share it far and wide.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 3rd, 2020
The Survey Results. The pandemic is starting to hit the solar industry, big increases in furloughs and terminations as well as delayed payables in the overall ecosystem. Thanks again for participating in the survey and passing the newsletter on to your colleagues. If anyone has success getting approved for the SBA paycheck protection program, please let me know.
New Sales Down. For the 3rd week in a row, new sales last week dropped 50% when compared to the average sales volume from Q1 pre-COVID. This is a further reduction from the 33% drop we saw in last week’s survey.
Building Departments Adjusting. While over 75% of you said that building departments had closed or delayed inspections, 42% are now seeing no-touch permitting and FaceTime inspections. Please share this data with your local trade group as they aggregate this information.
Adjusting Expenses. Some (43%) have had to lay off or furlough employees and more (36%) are seeing potential for more in April or May. This could be stemmed with the SBA payroll protection loan that is supposed to launch today (but likely isn’t)
Your Question. I asked what question you wanted to see in next week’s survey and over 50% of you asked about the ITC extension. In my conversation with you, it is clear that you want to see it in the next stimulus bill and want to know what strategy is being used to push this. You and I can do our part by contacting our member of Congress. If an actual call to action crosses my desk, I assure you that I will pass it on. I was saddened to see the ITC left out of package 3 and it worries me to see the administration trying to bail out the oil industry without further legislation but I shall keep my optimism alive.
Have a great weekend! Stay healthy!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 2nd, 2020
Call Me Commish. Yesterday was the best April fools joke of my life. No, I will not be a PSC commissioner and yes I will continue to do this newsletter, you are stuck with me! I woke up in a panic, I live in California which means that a lot of you get this newsletter at 4am my time. Your texts and hundreds of emails made me realize that for some reason you thought I would be nominated by the Governor AND be able to get confirmed. I would actually love to be a PSC commissioner at some point but that time is not now. The panic came from the realization that maybe I overstepped the time we are living in and taking advantage of days blending together, but I got to see what an exit would look like and thank you! So next year, know that an April fools is coming again but this will be hard to top.
If You Need. If you used my announcement and by chance forwarded it to your boss or colleagues without fact checking, I’m sorry. If you want me to call your boss and explain just let me know! If you wrote analysis on the opportunity of solar because I’m on the PSC, please let me read it. I want to see how far in the pocket of solar you all think I am!
Back To Business. Things are really bad in the oil markets especially in Texas. Tens of thousands of oil jobs are at risk of being lost by the double black swan events coming together in corona and the Saudi/Russia collision. WTI traded below $20/barrel yesterday and global consumption is down bigly. With oil CEOs coming to the White House I would expect the White House to go big on a bailout. Look at CNBC’s Jim Cramer calling this a major economic risk.
What This Means For Solar. Trump tweeted about the impending infrastructure week and the current low interest rates. He’s also right that infrastructure spending would be vital to keep business flowing across the Country. Chamath Palihapatiya was on Kara Swisher’s Recode Decode and said it best, “right now, everyone gets everything they want.” From a political standpoint, I think oil execs should hug solar to stop the positioning that the Senate GOP is taking that package 4 isn’t required and ‘green’ topics shouldn’t be included. Oil doesn’t care if solar gets something or everything, they are in dire need of help and don’t care about the quo to their quid.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 1st, 2020
Market Data. Yesterday I joined Roth capital to talk about the survey results, which you can see for yourself by going here after you participate. I am glad to see that this platform has been helpful to others in making business decisions, moving forward with their business plans and getting through the pandemic. We will do this again in a few weeks, with the intention to track the depth and duration of the slowdown as governments continue to work through their local plans. Please pass the survey along your network and it is important to participate each week, I promise we will stop doing this when we are back to normal. Link
SolarAPP Is Rolling. I caught up with Birchy from OpenSolar (ex Sungevity CEO), who’s been championing SolarAPP for the past 2 years, as the solution to reduce solar costs in the US. Following up from my editorial on Friday that we need SolarAPP faster given that many solar jobs are on hold or stalled, Birchy shared some positive news. Work started last week to accelerate the deployment of SolarAPP as a response to COVID driven restrictions in permit approvals. The SolarAPP consortium is going to expand the pilot to many more communities than planned, to provide a solution for AHJs to approve solar system permits without office based processing. If systems are installed by accredited installers using certified systems and installing to code, they would be eligible for automated permitting, subject to spot-checking and quality assurance by the AHJ. In the near-term emails and video call efforts are still necessary to keep projects moving, but the automated permitting tool will be released in beta as a solution for AHJs to grant permits of solar systems in the next few months - and this will be the new nationwide 'best-practice’ process created by NREL in consultation with the code and safety organizations representing key stakeholders. NREL has just launched the new solarAPP web page and I encourage you to sign up to stay in touch for this key initiative. You can stay informed about progress of this project, and register for an up-coming webinar that will discuss how communities can get involved in testing. Solar installers should encourage their AHJs to attend the webinar as well. This could be a real solution that can address a critical COVID response needed over the coming months, but also be a path to solving the bigger cost reductions achieved in all other international markets where residential solar installs at under $1.50/W largely due to non-existent soft costs.
No-Touch In The Meantime. I am excited and wish that SolarAPP would happen overnight but in the meantime let us help our State associations with information and outreach to AHJs. If you are in California, you can check out the CALSSA AHJ database on their current status, update it if you find different information and educate your teams on this. Then you should participate in and ask your building department contacts to join in a webinar on how building departments can enable no-touch permitting and remote inspections.
Tracking Current Permits. It is also time to see this week’s update on permit issuance for solar from across the Country. While the SolarWakeup survey tracks sentiment, sales and business strategy, our friends at Ohm Analytics are doing amazing work (temporarily for free) on showing you permits in major metros. Here’s my takeaway, building departments are either dipping to zero or close to it but then bouncing back, which tells me that they are creating a new process for processing the backlog. I’ll be watching to see what stays at zero and how close to the former average it bounces back to.
Payroll Protection. In case you were looking for it, SBA released the draft application for the payroll protection program.
Last Word. And now some bittersweet news. Next week will be the last week for the SolarWakeup daily newsletter, at least in this format. After 8 years, I have finally been tapped for a work assignment that doesn’t allow me to continue on. It is with great pleasure that I want to tell you that I’ve been nominated to join the Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) as its newest commissioner. More on this soon and I hope you will join me in thanking the community we’ve built together over almost 3,000 newsletters.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 31st, 2020
Tracking Survey. This morning I am joining Roth Capital on a conference call with investors to discuss the results of the past two week’s tracking survey. If you’re interested in the results from this week, fill out your responses today. This takes 60 seconds and provides feedback about the market and legislators looking to see what to focus on. Link.
Trouble In Texas. Oil companies are having issues keeping their businesses afloat. This comes due to a double dilemma of Coronavirus and OPEC’s price slashing. Oil prices are down dramatically and oil companies want a bailout in the form of a major purchase by the federal government and likely more.
Setting The Stage. The problem with the bailout, a $3billion purchase adding to the strategic petroleum reserve, is that Congress needs to approve it and didn’t include it in the last stimulus bill. Much like the 2016 ITC extension which was traded for the oil embargo lifting, democrats in Congress are calling for solar to also get support alongside oil.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 30th, 2020
Discussing The Market. Join me tomorrow in a discussion with Roth Capital’s Philip Shen about the SolarWakeup Tracking Survey results. If you’re interested in joining and reading Phil’s excellent coverage of the solar universe and public solar companies, email him at pshen@roth.com.
Adjusting The Forecast. WoodMac released an adjustment to the 2020 forecast for distributed solar. Their belief is that the 2020 forecast needs to be adjusted down by 31%, likely putting 2020 down from 2019. The public analysis doesn’t differentiate between residential and commercial but my view is that this is conservative and assumes a total shutdown for 4 months. The data we are seeing in our surveys and conversations with the market is one of resilience. Yes, 2020 won’t be 25% growth from last year but solar installers are finding ways to continue selling and using self-reliance as a purchasing motivation. We’ll get more into remote sales over the next few surveys and how you are adjusting the forecast.
Building Department Insight. Last week’s tracking survey showed a potential problem in the market with building departments closing. On the other hand, there has been a lot of talk about FaceTime inspections and email permitting so let’s see what the rest of you are seeing. So in this week’s tracking survey, we ask a few questions on the topic as well as updating the week to week changes. Respondents to the survey get the full data summary in advance of the rest of SolarWakeup subscribers. Click here to participate.
The States and Cities. Here is some reality to everyone in every industry. Cities and States are fighting the pandemic which is costing them money in addition to focus. Unlike the federal government, these bureaucracies can’t print their own currency and don’t operate at a deficit. In fact, they will have to raise debt or tap into emergency pools. This means that solar and renewable goals will take a backseat to the current emergency. My hope is that in package 4 stimulus, Congress includes aid to the local level in some form (treasury debt perhaps).
Preview Of Climate Change. Not to be alarmist but you’ve seen the climate change headline about mass migration or release of gases from the permafrost. Yes, this reads like a Dan Brown novel but there are some scary thoughts of what a global climate change event looks like. Our work is as important as ever, keep up the optimism and energy!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 27th, 2020
Sales Continue To Slow. As expected, this week’s SolarWakeup tracking survey shows that sales have dropped compared to pre-corona levels. Installers say that sales are down 33.5%, a deterioration from the 25% reduction our survey showed last week. Anecdotally, a few installers are seeing an opportunity in the market due to their online or telephone based sales process. Installers that relied less on the face to face sales tactics are seeing minor increases in sales volumes.
Installers Prep To Tough It Out. Door to door sales have stopped across the board, with no installer reporting business as usual. With the backlog of projects keeping some installation crews operational, 62% of the installers have already or plan to terminate employees. Next week, we will test this given the loan forgiveness passed by the Senate this if employees are retained.
Another Barrier Arises. While most companies across the country (and many of the respondents) have transitioned to the Zoom economy (including my children and their teachers) building departments were not prepared for not being able to process digital permit sets or inspections. 24.1% of the installers are seeing delayed inspections and 44.8% report that some or all of their building departments are closed. Even if installers are able to sell projects right now, unless building departments move online (touches permitting) projects will wait for things to normalize.
Trade Group Support. Thanks to memos by groups like CALSSA, joining today would mean a lot, installers are considering themselves essential or critical in order to continue installations. 68.9% of them are doing so with over 50% officially labeling themselves as essential.
Survey Results. This week’s survey included responses from 74 companies whose primary markets spanned 20 states. Included in these companies were 29 residential solar installers. Responses spanned from March 23rd to March 26th.
Market Chatter. In discussions this week, companies are saying that they have had record attendance on webinars and software companies are able to guide installers, developers and companies through the digitization of their processes. There are bright spots in the market as the underlying reasons for solar’s success continue to exist.
Next Week. Look out for next week’s survey which opens on Sunday afternoon, as you can see the data is helpful to your business and respondents got many more data points than this short summary.
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Yann