This is your SolarWakeup for January 3rd, 2020
The Mandates. I don’t like the word mandate but that is what the new home solar legislation in California is. The reality of the policy is that solar installed during new home construction is exponentially more cost effective than a one-off retrofit at a later date. Look for this policy to go farther in 2020 and beyond. The market will drive this as well once home builders realize that this generates instant value for the home buyer.
Where Is EVs Trade Org? EVs are coming fast and consumers want them but the market isn’t ready for changes. The OEMs don’t appear to be coordinating a policy path in DC and in the States, the closest I’ve seen comes from the charging companies. The opposition to EVs will come from labor, mechanics, and oil majors amongst others. There are trillions of dollars in play that will shift industries. This comes before the adaptation of self-driving cars which will decimate insurance premiums in due time.
Community Solar In 2020. Community solar programs are a huge success and are oversubscribed anywhere they are enacted. It also bridge the best of all of solar where distributed installers match homeowners with large scale developers and tech companies. This should be a big year for the market.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 2nd, 2020
Happy New Year! Welcome to the 2020 decade. Hard to imagine what solar looks like in 10 years. But let’s try. What is your biggest prediction for the end of the year and the end of the decade? Hit reply to this email and send me your thoughts, the best ones make it on.
Grow The Community. If this email was forwarded to you, please subscribe. If you like this newsletter, please forward it to one friend so they can get the news of the day as well.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 23rd, 2019
Was It The Skinny Package? Not that it matters much at this point but here is an additional level of information from the ITC showdown. Senate negotiators apparently walked into a White House looking to kill all tax extenders. This did not bode well for the Senate which promptly pulled out their skinny package, i.e. what the chairman wants. So when the biodiesel and wind credit goes through, you can imagine the senior senator from Iowa is somewhat content. Unfortunately for solar it appears that the power exerted on the legislative bodies wasn’t enough to get the skinny inclusion this time.
No Time For MOPR. FERC may be creating the biggest change in power markets in the history of the solar market. Through their minimum price mechanism, renewables that receive state support will have to clear at a higher price allowing generation like gas and coal to clear below that level. This means that consumers will artificially pay more for the most cost effective generation available and still be on the hook for the societal costs of polluting generation. In short, this is a giant subsidy for generating plants that are no longer viable and something the Trump administration has been after for 3 years. Much more to come but some Twitter commentary says that capacity markets could close or states leave their markets altogether.
Your Coal For The Holidays. As we celebrate Christmas and Hanukkah, you get the coal subsidy with the return of the incandescent light bulbs which the administration is bringing back to life. Doubt the market will get on board with that…Happy Holidays!
Programming Note. Today will be the last SolarWakeup edition of the year and the decade. I appreciate everything that you do and your readership over the past 7 years. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year! I will see you in the next decade as the Earth (and I) get one year older.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 20th, 2019
Have a great weekend! More insight on what happened with the ITC fight coming Monday.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 19th, 2019
Thank You. I appreciate the outreach in the past 24 hours and feedback. Yesterday was by far the most new subscribers, forwards and opens of the SolarWakeup email. This industry has never been more passionate about our future and advocacy. More to come.
While I Have Your Attention. Please give a donation to the Solar Rights Alliance, $5, $20, or whatever you can. We need to build our grassroots and this funding helps.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 18th, 2019
The News We Didn’t Want. The ITC is going to step down to 26% after it failed to be included in the final $1.4Trillion spending bill agreed to by Congress and the White House. After nearly a year of negotiation, solar was left at the trough while the pigs got fat. EV’s and energy storage were also left behind while wind received a one-year extension. Of note, biodiesel got a major retroactive extension which was close to Chairman Grassley’s heart.
What Happened. On Monday it became clear that there would not be a continuing resolution that punts the spending bill to January. This meant that negotiators would have to finalize the spending and tax extension packages which they did on the hill late afternoon. To finish the process, the tax extensions would have to go to the White House for approval prior to getting voted on. Solar had a one-year extension in the bill firmly set heading to the White House. Just after midnight, the house rules committee printed the agreed upon version from the White House which had the solar portion stripped out. The White House had, with pinpoint accuracy, targeted solar for elimination from the package which brings us to a major loss.
The Rumors Of Why. The White House had a problem with solar and it was personal. If you recall, SEIA published a report saying that the 201 tariffs have caused job losses and loss of private investment. This announcement had a major blowback from the White House including calling SEIA a “loose confederation of Chinese solar companies seeking to destroy American solar manufacturing jobs.” The White House also appeared to be upset that SEIA continued to push back on the bifacial exemption which resulted in a court victory by SEIA.
The Case For. The case for the process, outside of the result, is that SEIA started with their hands tied behind their back and built a strong bipartisan coalition to get the ITC into the package in the first place. This includes publishing the job impact report on December 3rd which showed the need for the ITC support in the face of tariffs, support that moved Senate republicans into solar’s corner. In short, SEIA’s federal affairs team executed on the strategy successfully to give the extension life in the first place including getting it all the way to the White House. On the other hand, SEIA couldn’t simply roll over in the trade fight without looking weak in a town that responds to power.
The Counterpoint. SEIA played the game but didn’t play the man. It’s 2019 and Donald Trump is President and in Donald Trump’s DC flattery is key. Solar enjoys bipartisan support by voters but the elongated trade battles made no friends in the White House. In retrospect, the trade job loss report was a mistake to publish. The mid-year review should have been a procedural event without much fanfare by SEIA and as such would not have resulted in the blowback by Peter Navarro. It is apparent now, that there should have been more of a Trump voice inside the group including staffers at SEIA that come at this from a more republican point of view. The counterpoint is that the GOP is anti tariff and pro free trade but they have stayed quiet on the topic due to the risk of upsetting Trump. Should SEIA have held an event at Trump Hotel? Should SEIA have thanked Trump for helping open factories with the 201 tariff?
Careful Consideration. There will be a discussion on two fronts. AWEA has been vocal that they didn’t really need/want/advocate for a PTC extension but got one anyways. With ongoing discussion about SEIA and AWEA merging, this will become a louder topic since wind ‘won’ and solar ‘lost’ but I urge restraint on jumping into that. The bigger topic will be how SEIA reacts to the continuously growing utility scale / DG gap on the board. As SEIA elects a new board chair today, there will be an internal consideration for allocation of resources. Utility scale and DG are tied at the hip even though folks don’t recognize it. DG needs the scale of large solar to drive down the price of materials but utility scale would not have the ability to drive policies ahead if supporters can’t put solar on their own home, in short we cannot let one side try to win over the other and drive a wedge in the industry. I worry that this result, the first tax credit loss in 15 years for solar, will put extreme pressure on the split. Now is not the time to alienate State chapters or any particular segment in the solar space, it is the time to build bridges and create a bigger tent going forward.
Next Steps. No, I’m not calling for anyone to be fired today, no need to call/email/text anymore. Everyone wanted the ITC to pass and put forth their best effort. Unfortunately the result is a loss and that can’t be ignored, somewhere the strategy failed us. This means that we have to assess the things that worked and what could or should have been done different. This process also tells us who our friends are and those that left us out to dry, yes this is another conversation about SEPA which stayed out of the fight once again hiding behind their tax structure while raking in nearly $10million from our solar trade events. This cannot continue to stand, either we are partners or we are not. Likewise, SEIA needs to build a bigger tent internally including having a GOP insider that gives the counterpoint on political moves. Most importantly and I would urge board members to propose this immediately, invest heavily in grassroots. The SEIA activism and supporter email list should have over 1 million names on it. This is something that CALSSA invested in through the Solar Rights Alliance and that the NRA has ridden to victory for decades. SEIA needs to triple down on homeowners, apartment dwellers and supporters that have or want solar on their rooftop, through community solar or through their utility.
Last Word. It is time to put fights from previous eras behind us. 2019 has been a brutal year for solar in federal policy, if we want 2020 to be better we need to build back the relationships that are somehow chafed from events that happened 15 years or 1 week ago. Solar’s future is too bright yet too fragile to let internal fights get in the way. I have been writing this newsletter for over 7 years and today may be the closest I have gotten to saying that’s it. But then I think about how I used to write and maybe what I planned to say today to realize that a tempered message may achieve more than burning the house down. Trust me, I’m angry about the result but maybe this is what creates the better industry going forward because we realize we need to be united and working together. We will not win if one side has it better than the other.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 17th, 2019
Today We Will (Most Likely) Know. Sitting here into the wee hours of the morning hoping to be able to tell you what happened with the ITC in the tax extenders/spending bill and nothing is set yet. So you will have your update about the future of the ITC, most likely, at some point today. Solar is possibly in line for a single year extension of the 30% tax credit but could also be left out entirely. More to come…
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 16th, 2019
Trillion Dollar Opportunity. There’s been a shift in the financial world when it comes to what type of energy markets it is focused on. Goldman Sachs announced their renewed focus on the opportunity to finance the energy transition. The goal is to drive $750billion towards the energy transition with several markets as the core drivers, starting with clean energy.
No Deal, Big Dreams. The COP25 meeting left members without a deal to take home. In hopes to keep 2050 temperature rise below 1.5 degrees, strong policies were being debated. Without the US at the table, it was up to other nations to fill the leadership role. In reality it will rejuvenate when the US leadership is reinstitated in the future on the issue of climate change.
Settlement Rejected By Newsom. Governor Newsom, on Friday, rejected the $13.5billion wildfire settlement that PG&E announced a few weeks ago. This leaves a crucial step incomplete in the path to coming out of bankruptcy. The legislature has a June 2020 deadline for PG&E to fulfill many major accomplishments and it looks like there is a lack of forward momentum for the corporation. It leaves to wonder how much longer the shareholders will leave the current management in place while things get sorted.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 13th, 2019
The Abs Of California. What a cool day in solar! CALSSA hosted Governors Schwarzenegger and Brown as well as Senator Kevin Murray at a Clovis public school. A huge crowd welcomed speakers that spoke about getting the bill passed and into law before embarking on a decade that led to achieving 1 million solar roofs. Arnold did what politicians don’t, he asked for a goal so grand that he wouldn’t see the final success while still in office. That’s leadership and I thank him for thinking big. At the 57 minute mark he starts speaking about solar, the abs of California, which make up the core, the center of the State. Watch the whole event here.
Social Media Call To Action. Today at 12pm Eastern / 9am Pacific please post the following on Twitter or Facebook. Your voice is needed as the Congress heads into the last week before running out of money and running out of town. “ I’m calling on @HouseDemocrats and @SenateGOP to make a deal on #cleanenergy tax policy this year. We need to #DefendTheITC to reduce emissions, create American jobs, and support local communities. Learn more at seia.org/DefendTheITC “
Seeing The Future. In both Europe and many States in the US, policy makers are finding their path to 100% renewable energy and massive carbon emission reductions. We’re in an era of polarization that shows when Trump attacks Greta Thunberg for her activism on the issue but the reality is that voters are aligned that action is needed and desired by them. How to get to the goal will differ but one thing is certain, solar will lead inside the process with ideas, job creation, retraining and wealth creation.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 12th, 2019
Residential Solar Brings Data. According to the latest update from SEIA, in its Solar Market Insight report, residential solar is growing at a rate nobody predicted. Q3, the market for residential grew 45% year over year installing over 700MW. This kind of growth means that 15 States had the highest rate of installation in history. Don’t expect the growth to slow, this is a result of market wide maturity and cost reductions created by the ecosystem even in an era where modules are double the global market cost.
Urgency Drives Person of the Year. When Greta Thunberg started striking by herself on behalf of climate change, not much was expected by her or of her. A year later the urgency she has brought to the discussion has caused politicians around the world to deride and belittle her because she’s young or otherwise naive about the way it is supposed to be. Like all good businesses, Thunberg has a sense of urgency, the time for action is now and not everyone can handle that. Greta is the Time Person of the Year for 2019, and we all win.
New Leader In Loan Market. Wood Mackenzie has Loanpal going to the top of the solar loan market with a continued presence for third party structures. If you want to know how this happened, look at the above paragraph about sense of urgency.
New York Making Changes. Net metering is going to go through some changes in New York but not before a year extension of the current regulations. This way the solar market can get used to the changes that will likely be accepted in the near future.
Today Is The Day. Congratulations to all that installed solar in California in the past decade. You contributed to the 1 million solar roofs initiative that Arnold is celebrating with CALSSA today.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann