This is your SolarWakeup for October 29th, 2019
A Vox Endorsement. In the latest installment of his series Vox reporter David Roberts brings his conclusion to paper that the way to solve utility woes in Northern California is through distributed generation. Take the case of the 93 year old living in a mobile home that had to buy an $800 generator to make it through the blackout, a few panels and storage would have likely done the trick and saved money throughout the year. How that infrastructure gets built out so all can benefit is obviously the next question.
Resi Market Growth, Pains. Roth is estimating multiple years of 25% growth in residential market and I concur with that assessment. How we, as an industry, ensure that the labor force is trained to build quality is the obvious question and we need training centers to do that.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 28th, 2019
PG&E Shuts Down Again. 2 years ago you recall my climate refugee status as I fled a hurricane in Florida. This weekend I sat in my office with kids in tow as PG&E expanded the blackouts beyond the previously announced shutoff areas to include my home and their school. When I grew up in Germany, we had ‘heat days’ when it was too hot (75 degrees) but now the kids in California can say they miss school because the air is full of smoke and the power is out. There will be plenty said about largest ever blackout in California but thinking this will be the norm over the next decade is clearly insanity.
Newsom Isn’t Happy. “Your years and years of greed. Years and years of mismanagement. Years and years of putting shareholders over people. Are OVER.” Those are the words from the Governor as he moves towards finding a partner to take over the broken utility. Wall Street also brought the stock to the lowest levels ever, a market cap of 12% of their annual revenues. Here’s the video
And Shut Down By Warren. There were some reports that Governor Newsom had asked Berkshire Hathaway to make a bid for PG&E which was quickly shut down by Warren Buffett himself. The theory is correct though, someone should bid to take over the assets with a clear vision and a responsibility to serve.
The Resi Microgrid Play. Two weeks ago I wrote, 600k more solar leads. It’s much more than that. Consumers across the Country are seeing the headlines that show utilities inability to serve their electric needs regardless of the demand charges levied on them. For one, the team at Generac that led the acquisition of Pika Energy is going back to the board and asking for major capital infusions based on how right they were. Generac is selling gas generators like crazy and all of the residential storage providers will sell more in the next quarter than they have supply for. Generac also led the investment into a residential solar software platform called Solargraf, making their move into the customer facing side of the value chain. I expect to see Solaredge and Enphase following down this path.
An ITC Coming? Speaking of storage, all of these headlines on climate disasters is going to make legislators think about their backup energy plans personally. What would you do if your power went out for a day, two days or a week? Should be the question asked of legislators. I’m handicapping storage addition to the ITC extension at over 50% for the first time. Once a long shot but I see the trend coming the right way.
Stay Safe. If you are affected by the fires raging in Northern or Southern California and need help, let me know. There is a network of peers here that are ready and willing to lend a helping hand. Stay safe and listen to the warnings.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 25th, 2019
Thanks Vote Solar. It was a great evening with the team from Vote Solar in DC. Thank you for your leadership and the amazing speeches. I am more motivated and ready to act on behalf of the industry. Thank you to the sponsors and attendees for participating!
Making Money. Morgan Stanley says that it will take $50 Trillion of investment to solve climate change. Sounds like a great opportunity to make money for everyone in the value chain including the investors that put up the money. Remember, the entire US grid and power infrastructure was built with significant profits for the ecosystem.
Situational Awareness. Leaving the Paris Climate Accords isn’t going to be helpful to create the regulatory environment to deploy that kind of capital. If you want trillions to be invested then regulatory risk has to be low or limited, or the cost of capital goes up to the point where deployment slows or stops.
One Opportunity. The home is still incredibly dumb for energy consumption, solar produces when it does, the laundry goes when it does and there is limited dashboarding of consumption by the homeowner. What gets measured gets done is something I say all the time, we need to start showing energy consumption on an iPad to the homeowner.
To Make The Bet. National Grid Ventures is making more capital bets on companies in the space. Some things to note over the past year you’ve seen the 3 leading racking companies acquired to form the largest distributed racking company in the world and three of the major software tools for residential solar have raised capital: Solargraf, Energy Toolbase and Aurora Solar.
And Action For You. California regulators say the State needs another 4GW, are you going to help? I wish there was a statewide effort to put solar panels on the warehouses in the State.
Without Selling. Tesla did 43MW in Q3 this year, down 50% YoY but up from Q2 and without a salesforce. Too early to tell if this is an uptick and restart of the system or something else.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 24th, 2019
No column Today. See you in DC tonight!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 23rd, 2019
DC, Vote Solar, Collision Course. Join me in DC for Vote Solar’s Equinox tomorrow evening. There should be some great surprises and news that matter to your business. Get your ticket right now.
David Roberts Chimes In. David has been noting that he wanted to cover the blackouts from a different perspective and be last to the rush of articles. Here are his thoughts on the things that could be done.
One Of Those Things. Is happening on January 1st with the new home solar mandate that is kicking off. This legislative effort was the work of many and required many different parties to get to the table.
More Is Needed. That is why hundreds of mayors sent a letter to Congress asking for the ITC to be extended. Have you sent yours?
Because We Are Outmatched. PG&E alone has 100 regulatory staffers in Sacramento, add that to every other utility lobbying force across the Country and then add the oil and gas lobbying staff. In case you wanted to see the numbers behind the lobbying, Axios has you covered.
Reality Check. Yes, the republican co-chair of the climate caucus isn’t running for re-election. His decision not to run has nothing to do with climate and being the co-chair makes him persona non-grata in the GOP caucus. This is a political problem.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 22nd, 2019
SEIA Election Endorsements. There is an important election going on for SEIA’s board, particularly the DG Division. If you are a member, please vote for Karla Loeb for the Chair of the DG Division. Karla is the head of policy for an east coast solar provider and has been a strong supporter advancing solar in States that are often forgotten. Most importantly she is intimately knowledgeable on DG matters. For the Vice Chair of the DG Division, please vote for Michael Healy. Michael has been on the SEIA board and provides important institutional knowledge to the board. Both Karla and Michael are near DC and will absolutely be as involved as anyone you can hope for.
IEA Highlights Rooftop. IEA is out with their new Renewables Report for 2019 and they are highlighting the massive potential of distributed solar. From a global perspective, IEA sees commercial solar taking off and even after 600GW, it would only represent 6% of the technical potential.
Google Shares Knowledge. If you were wondering how Google executes on its renewable contracts, they are providing answers. Their auction system ensures not only qualified bidders, allows for understanding of the offer and then provides the best price. The white paper is short and to the point, and full of information.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 21st, 2019
A Give Back Evening. Last Friday I spent a few hours with my friends from the California solar industry at the CALSSA annual dinner. I personally try to attend as many of these as I can in both my SolarWakeup and Quick Mount capacity to support the important work of the State trade association. On Friday I was excited to see the generosity of members, raising over $100k for CALSSA, with major donations coming throughout the evening. Companies showed up for the $15billion market that pays their bills and creates their jobs but think of that, CALSSA operates on an annual budget that is about 0.01% of the total market. As I was leaving I realized some notable companies that make a ton of revenue in California were missing. Where were they? Where were you? This has been bothering me all weekend, why isn’t every company giving at least a few thousand to CALSSA and State chapters? PG&E has 100 regulatory staffers and CALSSA has a $1.6million budget. Thanks to all that gave and those that didn’t, you should ask yourself why and try to defend that decision especially if you made a profit in the California market.
Is Solar Divided? Something is brewing in the solar industry (in reality it’s been there for a decade) but it’s getting worse. Utility scale solar and distributed solar are at odds in regulatory proceedings as well as trade group boards including SEIA. Right now it’s just healthy debate but it scares me that we don’t see the benefit of each other’s position. Solar is a market in totality, residential solar likes the headlines of solar being the cheapest form of electricity and utility scale likes the headline of 2million homes with solar and amazing public support. Let’s be realistic about one point and I say this to my friends in utility scale solar that are always missing from State chapter events. Your market will tank and the likelihood of legislative victories will disappear if the people that you need for support can’t put solar on their homes. Utility scale solar needs net metering, ITC and interconnection rules and fights so that there is a market for large scale solar. There is no large scale solar market without the regulatory environment that has the support of voters. If a homeowner cannot put solar on their home or net metering doesn’t exist, the perception will be that solar doesn’t work or is too expensive. I’m happy to debate this with any of the large scale voices in private or public and in the meantime challenge you to send a $5k check to a State chapter near you.
A Decade Of Incompetence. The CEO of PG&E was out on Friday stating that utility driven blackouts could last for the next decade. Now ask yourself what would happen if you were asked by your CEO or board to fix an enormous problem, a problem you may or may not know the answer to, and your response is that it would take you ten years to fix it. Every CEO I know would either terminate you or give that problem to someone else. I can’t believe that the CEO of a major monopoly utility in control of all of the assets in the system could say that a problem like the blackouts would exist for the next decade. What happened to the ‘responsibility to serve’?
Our Work With Ag. I’m a loyal listener to Kara Swisher’s various podcasts and she’s been highlighting tech’s work in agriculture. Solar and farmers have had a nice relationship over the past 5-10 years renting land to solar farms but I wonder what else is possible. Farmers play such a vital role in American society and this story needs to be told with more vigor. I’d love to have conversations with farmers around the Country to understand their view of the industry and what else they’d like to see.
A New DOE Secretary. Go ahead and Google Dan Brouillette, your likely next Secretary of Energy. A longtime hill staffer with some ties to the auto industry but a nuclear scientist he is not. Fun note, Brouillette was part of the legislative team that drafted the bill that gave us the loan guarantee program which made money for taxpayers.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 18th, 2019
Solar Growing Up. Florida has the strictest building codes in the Country and part of that is testing your product in Florida test labs and having the State approve them. Solar has never done that in the past but now that is changed. The second biggest residential solar market in the Country is getting the solar market to grow up and I’m glad Quick Mount was able to be a part of that.
Pushing Your HOA. A state rule preventing HOAs from limiting solar is key, but not all states have done that. Know your rights and fight for them at the legislative level if you need to.
Attacking The C&I Market. One fund is saying good bye to PURPA deals and replacing them with C&I. As we see installed projects trading in the secondary market, I wonder what effect this will have on the expansion of the development funnel for projects and how they’ll be financed. Open Energy is working on a new tool that prices C&I projects for developers to allow them to get deals moving forward without having to go through an entire underwriting process.
Farewell, Again. Rick Perry is out. Officially.
If Only. I had a dollar for everytime I said years ago that we should go all in on ERCOT development. Shoulda coulda woulda.
CALSSA, Vote Solar, MDV-SEIA. For the next 6 weeks there are some of the biggest events in the Country to help your business. See you there!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 17th, 2019
More tomorrow. Don’t forget to get your tickets for next week’s Equinox DC hosted by Vote Solar. If you donate, spend or sponsor for more than $1,000, you get to write a paragraph on SolarWakeup.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 16th, 2019
Why Not 1%? What would it take for you to allocate 1% of your revenue to policy spend, either internal FTE or supporting trade groups? I’ve given this some thought and think that most of it has to do that the business didn’t have the spend automatically ingrained in the business plan. The funny upside is that everyone’s revenue would grow by more than 1% if we all did it but nobody wants to be the only one doing it. Maybe 1% isn’t the right number but what if it was 0.5%? Can a $1million business afford $5k? Can a $100,000,000 afford $500k?
Getting Pricing Signals. Pricing signals are naturally imperfect until the market adapts to the inputs that drive the signal. If the market driving that pricing is large enough, than the value would be high enough to drive the market scale, just look at any SREC market. Limit the demand and have too much supply, the pricing would be too low to make a difference. For energy storage there is even more value, you don’t need to create a legislative demand. All we need is for the power markets to value things like speed, stability and flexibility and operators will be able to monetize. This is especially important for the solar market because it allows solar farms to pop up without off takers, just through the time flexibility provided by storage with the right signals.
Educating Consumers. I want to know how your sales pitches went in the past week. How much demand did you get for batteries and what did you say? Did your close rate go up or down? What amount of information did they give that showed misinformation and what was the biggest misunderstanding?
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Yann