This is your SolarWakeup for November 5th, 2019
Utility Reform Megathread. Much has been written about the issues that caused the PG&E blackouts, a culmination of decades of issues surrounding the utility, the regulations and environment. While some of us are inside the bubble that hopes for solar to be the savior in this story, and we will be, David Roberts goes on a Twitter megathread to give you insights on how he came to his conclusions. While David is a writer on the topic, he doesn’t work in the sector and would have come to the end of the story without bias regardless of where it led. So as you try and frame your argument to legislators and outsiders, here’s a good glimpse with deep dives into how we could go about solving this problem that was created by barely regulated monopolies.
Midwest Goes Solar. Alliant Energy in Wisconsin wants to add 1GW of solar in the next few years. Let’s hold our breath for consumer choice to do the same. What do you think about rate based solar? Is all solar good solar and we should applaud it or does utility owned solar at the cost of a solar market make it less good solar?
Stifling DG Solar. Speaking of solar markets lacking DG capacity, what is going on in Georgia? Some insiders make their case in their article.
Au Revoir Paris. A few years after declaring that he would, Trump is officially starting the process to leave the Paris climate accords. It’s a charade and would kill the economy, republicans are having a hard time finding their argument.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 4th, 2019
A Governor’s Roadmap. Things are escalating in l’affaire PG&E. Late Friday, Governor Newsom published a post outlining the roadmap on utility regulation which included naming Secretary Ana Matosantos as the state’s Energy Czar. The Governor also says that if PG&E isn’t ready to comply with legislation and prioritizing safety after the bankruptcy process, the State is ready to take over.
The Leads Are In. Reuters wanted to check on the solar leads created by the blackouts and found that solar sales are up and storage numbers are up 5x compared to forecasts. I would be surprised if this is only true for PG&E customers, I would assume that other utility service areas are also benefitting from the headlines. Question for C&I developers is whether blackouts have caused businesses to adjust ROI calculations when looking to go solar.
Rising Electricity Prices. Just this weekend we see headlines that APS and Xcel are filing to increase their rates. Death, taxes and rising utility costs.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 1st, 2019
CALSSA Board Votes. If you are a member of CALSSA, please vote for me for the board. It’s one set of votes per member company so make sure my name makes it to your designated contact. If you are not a member, you should be!
Solar Boom. It is no surprise that the blackouts has caused customers across the Country to look for solar and storage solutions. Installers are telling me every day that their business is through the roof. Blackouts are the symptom of monopoly control and solar takes some of that power back for the consumer.
Storage Boom. The combination of big and small storage demand is driving the investment case up for manufacturers. Expect cells to sell for well below $100/kWh regularly in just a few years. Cheap storage is the ballgame folks!
DG Boom. One of the best pivots in solar over the past few years is how Sunpower has refocused its business on distributed generation. I think this is a positive driver for the entire market and while DG only represents a fraction of the US market, it is the biggest driver of public and political sentiment. DG is also the value chain where every participant makes money, from module maker to consumer, everyone is adding money to the bank account and growing organically.
The Win-Win. There is always a whisper in the background that DG or utility scale needs to win out. This is a circular argument because one does not grow without the other. Honestly, we would do great things if we spent a day lobbying for the main request of the other segment. We need to act on behalf of solar, not a segment of solar. A utility that lives with performance based ratemaking is going to make consumers happy and buy a ton of solar from utility scale solar farms.
Have a great weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 31st, 2019
Consensus Support. Over 70 associations have sent a letter to Congress asking for their support on the ITC. Here is the letter and make sure to transmit this within your circles.
Board Votes. Two items for your trade group votes. I am running for the board of CALSSA in my capacity as CEO of Quick Mount PV, if you are a member of CALSSA, please vote for me! My friend Kendra Hubbard is running for the board of SEIA, she’s done a great job as chair of the DG division and I would love for her to make the board again. Please vote for us!
More coverage tomorrow, Happy Halloween!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 30th, 2019
Bad News For Coastal Folks. A new report in Nature magazine highlights the risk for coastal communities by the year 2050. Don’t take my hyperbole for it but it is going to be really bad for many, especially some of the world’s poorest communities. Miami Beach may have spent a billion dollars building a pumping system under the roads but this says that those pumps will basically be sitting in the ocean by then.
Enphase Exec Experiences Blackouts. The VP of Marketing at Enphase has been without power at home for over 3 days. This means that he’s working in his car at night and his kids are doing homework by lantern light. We exchanged some messages to compare blackout notes (mine ended at hour 44) and how our kids may be shocked that this is a normal situation for many in the world and that our work fixing our first world problems has positive ramifications to climate change and millions of lives around the world if we do it well.
Markets Go As Insurers Do. In 1957, Congress passed the Price-Anderson Nuclear Industries Indemnity Act. The act provides for government insurance for nuclear power plants above $12.6billion in liabilities, the rest is self insured. Even in 1957, regulators, industry and governments knew that no power plant would be built without sufficient insurance and no plant could be affordable with private insurance. The same is true today, if insurance providers stop insuring ocean front homes, prices will drop. If they stop insuring gas plants, they will go away as well.
No, It Can’t. PG&E cannot stay in the status quo, there will be changes. An interesting argument is coming out that the public advocate has blame for the wildfires because they opposed rate increases. PG&E rates are well over double that of Florida Power and Light and FPL has to deal with hurricanes every year, spending billions on infrastructure. Execution was the failure point, not the public advocate.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 29th, 2019
A Vox Endorsement. In the latest installment of his series Vox reporter David Roberts brings his conclusion to paper that the way to solve utility woes in Northern California is through distributed generation. Take the case of the 93 year old living in a mobile home that had to buy an $800 generator to make it through the blackout, a few panels and storage would have likely done the trick and saved money throughout the year. How that infrastructure gets built out so all can benefit is obviously the next question.
Resi Market Growth, Pains. Roth is estimating multiple years of 25% growth in residential market and I concur with that assessment. How we, as an industry, ensure that the labor force is trained to build quality is the obvious question and we need training centers to do that.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 28th, 2019
PG&E Shuts Down Again. 2 years ago you recall my climate refugee status as I fled a hurricane in Florida. This weekend I sat in my office with kids in tow as PG&E expanded the blackouts beyond the previously announced shutoff areas to include my home and their school. When I grew up in Germany, we had ‘heat days’ when it was too hot (75 degrees) but now the kids in California can say they miss school because the air is full of smoke and the power is out. There will be plenty said about largest ever blackout in California but thinking this will be the norm over the next decade is clearly insanity.
Newsom Isn’t Happy. “Your years and years of greed. Years and years of mismanagement. Years and years of putting shareholders over people. Are OVER.” Those are the words from the Governor as he moves towards finding a partner to take over the broken utility. Wall Street also brought the stock to the lowest levels ever, a market cap of 12% of their annual revenues. Here’s the video
And Shut Down By Warren. There were some reports that Governor Newsom had asked Berkshire Hathaway to make a bid for PG&E which was quickly shut down by Warren Buffett himself. The theory is correct though, someone should bid to take over the assets with a clear vision and a responsibility to serve.
The Resi Microgrid Play. Two weeks ago I wrote, 600k more solar leads. It’s much more than that. Consumers across the Country are seeing the headlines that show utilities inability to serve their electric needs regardless of the demand charges levied on them. For one, the team at Generac that led the acquisition of Pika Energy is going back to the board and asking for major capital infusions based on how right they were. Generac is selling gas generators like crazy and all of the residential storage providers will sell more in the next quarter than they have supply for. Generac also led the investment into a residential solar software platform called Solargraf, making their move into the customer facing side of the value chain. I expect to see Solaredge and Enphase following down this path.
An ITC Coming? Speaking of storage, all of these headlines on climate disasters is going to make legislators think about their backup energy plans personally. What would you do if your power went out for a day, two days or a week? Should be the question asked of legislators. I’m handicapping storage addition to the ITC extension at over 50% for the first time. Once a long shot but I see the trend coming the right way.
Stay Safe. If you are affected by the fires raging in Northern or Southern California and need help, let me know. There is a network of peers here that are ready and willing to lend a helping hand. Stay safe and listen to the warnings.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 25th, 2019
Thanks Vote Solar. It was a great evening with the team from Vote Solar in DC. Thank you for your leadership and the amazing speeches. I am more motivated and ready to act on behalf of the industry. Thank you to the sponsors and attendees for participating!
Making Money. Morgan Stanley says that it will take $50 Trillion of investment to solve climate change. Sounds like a great opportunity to make money for everyone in the value chain including the investors that put up the money. Remember, the entire US grid and power infrastructure was built with significant profits for the ecosystem.
Situational Awareness. Leaving the Paris Climate Accords isn’t going to be helpful to create the regulatory environment to deploy that kind of capital. If you want trillions to be invested then regulatory risk has to be low or limited, or the cost of capital goes up to the point where deployment slows or stops.
One Opportunity. The home is still incredibly dumb for energy consumption, solar produces when it does, the laundry goes when it does and there is limited dashboarding of consumption by the homeowner. What gets measured gets done is something I say all the time, we need to start showing energy consumption on an iPad to the homeowner.
To Make The Bet. National Grid Ventures is making more capital bets on companies in the space. Some things to note over the past year you’ve seen the 3 leading racking companies acquired to form the largest distributed racking company in the world and three of the major software tools for residential solar have raised capital: Solargraf, Energy Toolbase and Aurora Solar.
And Action For You. California regulators say the State needs another 4GW, are you going to help? I wish there was a statewide effort to put solar panels on the warehouses in the State.
Without Selling. Tesla did 43MW in Q3 this year, down 50% YoY but up from Q2 and without a salesforce. Too early to tell if this is an uptick and restart of the system or something else.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 24th, 2019
No column Today. See you in DC tonight!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 23rd, 2019
DC, Vote Solar, Collision Course. Join me in DC for Vote Solar’s Equinox tomorrow evening. There should be some great surprises and news that matter to your business. Get your ticket right now.
David Roberts Chimes In. David has been noting that he wanted to cover the blackouts from a different perspective and be last to the rush of articles. Here are his thoughts on the things that could be done.
One Of Those Things. Is happening on January 1st with the new home solar mandate that is kicking off. This legislative effort was the work of many and required many different parties to get to the table.
More Is Needed. That is why hundreds of mayors sent a letter to Congress asking for the ITC to be extended. Have you sent yours?
Because We Are Outmatched. PG&E alone has 100 regulatory staffers in Sacramento, add that to every other utility lobbying force across the Country and then add the oil and gas lobbying staff. In case you wanted to see the numbers behind the lobbying, Axios has you covered.
Reality Check. Yes, the republican co-chair of the climate caucus isn’t running for re-election. His decision not to run has nothing to do with climate and being the co-chair makes him persona non-grata in the GOP caucus. This is a political problem.
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Yann