This is your SolarWakeup for October 15th, 2019
Looking At Colleges. Colleges still represent the most untapped off taker portfolio in the solar market today. As a group, they have the largest combination of energy consumption and bankable credit. College institutions also have a will to be 100% renewable and now is time for the solar industry to solve this problem for them. There have been examples of how this has worked, see Stanford and Hopkins, but I’d love to hear other ways that you’re solving this market opportunity.
Newsom Speaks Out. Here is the twitter thread from the California Governor on PG&E. This is the strongest statement thus far but falls short from calling for something specific, likely due to the process that the CPUC must enter into as the regulatory body where his demands may come out.
RWE Setting The Stage. RWE clearly doesn’t want out of its coal plants ahead of schedule. This doesn’t really mean they don’t want to close them, it just means that they want something in return for closing them ahead of time. Shareholders strike again…
CALSSA Auction Dinner. Join me on Friday night in Berkeley for the annual auction dinner hosted by CALSSA. This raises funds to keep the largest market in the US running which is key for most of you. Get your tickets here
Vote Solar Equinox DC. One week later on October 24th, join me in DC for Vote Solar Equinox DC. There will be some amazing speakers, as always, and help Vote Solar raise funds to keep markets open all over America. If you don’t think funding this event is for you, the beverage sponsor for Equinox DC is Vinyasun, a local Florida installer. Justin Hoysradt understands that funding policy means more business opportunity for his small business. If you donate, sponsor or buy $1,000 worth of tickets, you get to write a paragraph for this newsletter. Send me the receipt to get the reward. If you’re more interested in a $100,000 donation, hit reply and I’ll make the appropriate introduction.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 14th, 2019
PG&E Blackout AAR. The PG&E blackout is now over and it’s time to review how it went. First reports show that a medically dependent resident lost his ventilator and passed away 12 minutes after losing power and the City of Moraga went through a scary 70 acre wildfire hours after losing their electricity. Because PG&E systems and emergency systems were not working as planned, emergency responders went door to door to wake homeowners up in the middle of the night, grab their things and flee. For many of you, this may trigger a recall to my climate story from Hurricane Irma two years ago when we packed up and fled the State of Florida. That same waterproof box still holds the important items, passports, birth certificates etc but Friday morning my wife asked me if the waterproof box was still functional for a fire event. Moraga is less than 10 miles from our house in Walnut Creek and here we are buying a fireproof box. There are going to be a lot of stories about how PG&E did (not well) and what the solution is (solar/storage/microgrids) but also some editorials that give the Governor some much needed political cover to act.
Change The System To Solve The Problem. When PG&E filed bankruptcy they knew that the newly inaugurated Governor would have a hard time pushing his power so early on. With hundreds of thousands of union jobs and pensions on the line, breaking up PG&E is easier said than done. The Governor said it right on saying, “This is not a climate change story as much as a story about greed and mismanagement over the course of decades,” he said. “Neglect, a desire to advance not public safety but profits.” PG&E is a poorly managed utility that does too much, covers too diverse a service area and got comfortable. The management has always focused on the quarter end results and not the impact to consumers 5 years down the road. Why should they? Imagine if their CEO had said 5 years ago that they need to focus on electrifying buildings away from gas (they own a gas utility) and help ratepayers go solar with storage. In fact PG&E would incentivize the creation of microgrids in load centers with solar everywhere. They would become change from a centralized power model to a grid that gave priority access to local, clean power. That CEO would have been fired on the spot and would probably have been considered unhireable by other power companies. But the CEO would have been right and nothing to show for it. That’s the CEO that Newsom should push on the PG&E shareholders, the CEO that predicted the obvious future and acted on it and put their own career on the line because he knew and did something about it. Yes, such a (former) CEO exists and he currently spends his time as a member of the Vote Solar board amongst other things, David Crane is the CEO that PG&E needs. Not all shareholders will love it but they should because Crane would give the company and the Governor the cover they need to think longer term. The interests are finally aligned, PG&E cannot keep the current form of management in place, they are only there to restructure the company from bankruptcy and not service the ratepayers for the long term. More editorials will give more political power to the Governor to call the handful of hedge funds and make his demands.
National Grid Under Review. We’ve talked about the delay and uncertainty for developers in MA and I’m glad to see the DPU acting to make sure the right things are happened under SMART.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 11th, 2019
Coal On Gas. Coal and natural gas are fighting to see who’s better on climate change, let’s give that some airtime.
ITC For All. The wind wants ITC for onshore projects, 30% upfront instead of a PTC. Great, let’s get the deal done, can you bring Senator Grassley along, please?
Read This Headline Again. I posted this story two weeks ago, it was silly then that we would be threatened with blackouts if gas plants closed. Today, we are living through a blackout BECAUSE we are too reliant on central power plants.
Lived Experience. How did you, friends or family members experience the blackout? Tell me your story.
The Muni Blowback. IOUs are making a media push to show the downside of municipalization of power companies. Several munis are looking to sell back to the monopoly. Watch this space.
Have a great weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 10th, 2019
Commence NorCal Blackout. It felt like the day after a hurricane in the Bay Area yesterday, Muir Woods and Oakland Zoo were closed as some 500,000 accounts were shut off in preparation for wildfire type conditions. As this newsletter hits inboxes, there is an expectation that another 300,000 accounts are impacted causing some 2.5million people to lose electricity. PG& E was woefully unprepared for the event, largely relying on Twitter to spread their message as their website and phone systems were mostly shut down. For a power company that is looking for safe, reliable and clean services to consumers (in return for a monopoly with a guaranteed return) PG&E has opened itself up for major critique. State legislators and the Governor have been quiet on this thus far except to say that it’s insane to think this is a new normal.
The Call For Solar (plus storage). In a well-timed op-ed in the local San Francisco paper, the CA lead for Vote Solar writes what we all know to be true, solar with storage is the natural hedge against this policy of shutdowns. Some corporate development folks at Generac are cheering their vision of why a generator company should get into batteries. There is a worry from my end that storage is a bit unprepared for this, costs are still high (but dropping) and inventory levels are not ready for this type of demand. This week should drive the demand and solution in a way where legislators ask themselves why solar can’t be put on every home?
A Judge Chimes In. As PG&E didn’t have enough to think about this week, they were also in bankruptcy court. The judge was not content with the company’s restructuring plan and opened it up for other parties to also get involved in proposing a plan. I hope that the Governor also chimes in on this as well as the parties that proposed a clean energy management team that would align itself with a vision for PG&E that is centred around being a company that makes decentralized, clean energy the mission of the company. If you think this entire newsletter is too focused on PG&E, look at the chain of events and realize that you can plug in any US utility with monopoly status into the storyline and visualize the same situation over the next 30 years.
Or Else Plan B. Just in case the monopoly thing was untouchable, the CCAs are right behind causing big changes to the demand profile. CCAs have their timing down, with super low solar plus storage available to meet consumer demand as well as CAISO requirements. CCAs are also serving their areas with financial products that make C&I solar much more profitable for the investors, through feed-in tariff type arrangements.
A Sunshine State Deal. Keep watching the Florida market. The Jacksonville utility is up for sale and NextEra is in the running (i.e. they are going to win) which should open up a major solar market inside the fast-growing Florida market. Vote Solar also led a major settlement for community solar for low-income consumers in Florida.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 9th, 2019
Good Vibes. Read the good vibes and realize the work continues. Reach out to your rep and put in the work to extend the ITC. If your company joins the ITC Council, contact me and I’ll add your logo to the newsletter for a month.
Solar Sales This Week. This week and next will be the largest solar sales week in the history of the US market. I remain surprised that the politicians haven’t stepped in to stop the PG&E blackouts but I guess if they step in and a fire happens, then they’re done as well. In the meantime, some 800k customers which mean 2.5million people will likely lose power for a few days at least. The week following will have every homeowner in Northern California looking for a quote for solar plus storage. Tell me again how we don’t need the ITC and long term net metering/rate schedule certainty?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 8th, 2019
Happy Birthday! 7 years I ago I came home and told my wife that someone should write a solar newsletter that covers the industry, not just press releases. She looked at me and said, “You should do it.” Those words still haunt her daily when I pull out the laptop every single night. Well, today is her birthday! (Don’t worry, she doesn’t read SolarWakeup)
600,000 New Solar Leads. 25 counties in Northern California are at risk to have their power shut off due to a potentially widespread wind event. This means 600,000 ratepayers are losing power, potentially for days. Guess what they’ll think about the moment that power goes out and the day after and the day after. I’ve lost power to my house for two weeks after a hurricane and I assure you that it causes permanent trauma. Couple that with the highest premium for home values in the US, this should shape up to be the solar equivalent of baby births after a major blackout.
The ITC Fight Page. Yesterday it was a well-sourced rumour, today it is a reality. SEIA has set up a fight page with three ways for you to get involved. First, you can join as a member. There are lower price levels for you to do so and get the SEIA membership benefits plus help fund the ITC. You can also join the ITC council. This is the $25k commitment to securing a future of the solar industry with a full 30% ITC. It may be rich for your company but how much profit will you lose if the ITC drops 4%? If you do over $1mm in deals, the ITC drop is worth $40k to your customers.
Three Lefts On Rick Perry. Back to the start for the Rick Perry saga, but don’t hold your breath. I would be surprised if he makes it to 2020.
Going Renewable At Home. Plenty of retail energy providers now offer a 100% renewable offering. CleanChoice Energy does it exclusively and gets involved in community solar projects as well. Axios’ Amy Harder writes about her personal experience joining Arcadia Power’s customer base while writing about renewable energy procurement.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 7th, 2019
Home Value With Solar. The data on home values with solar is getting better simply due to the volume of transactions. Some perspective on the numbers though. The percentages are somewhat useless given that the home values are not the same across state lines. The total value is what you are looking for and it is directly correlated to the cost of electricity. San Francisco leads with $41k but the rest of the country is somewhere in the $10k range. That number is key because after the ITC and energy savings you enjoy while being in the home, you have the value left over. Solar buyers often run an ROI analysis, i.e. 7 year payback, but what they should really do is look at the ROI to premium value. Is anyone in solar selling on this?
SEIA Fights ITC. Insiders are telling me that SEIA is getting ready to deploy money into the ITC extension fight. I can’t be prouder of SEIA for allocating the limited resources in this way when they will likely be the lone trade group to do so with the support of many of you. Neither SEPA nor SETS have commented on the call to participate financially in the policy that pays their bills.
Bipolar Bifacial Exemption. It wasn’t expected to happen like this, the bifacial exemption was on the block but insiders thought it wouldn’t be seriously reviewed until the mid-term review of the 201 tariffs. This is the Trump times though and the bifacial exemption is officially gone. This means that the utility-scale developers that sought to get a premium output module without the 201 tariff are now back to square one. The winner is First Solar but in reality, they were sold out in the near future anyways which means we’re all losers. Here is my beef with this, the 180 turn in regulation cost companies millions of dollars and time they won’t get back. Engineering has to be redone, business plans, layouts and potentially even financing documentation.
Perry Ends His Stay. Rick Perry is coming to the end of his reign at the Department of Energy. He came into the administration looking to be the global head of business development for the US oil and gas industry and that looks to be the reason for his departure. Over the weekend Axios reported that Trump was putting the blame of the Ukraine call on his Energy secretary so the departure is somewhere between ‘get me out of here and make money lobbying’ and ‘you’re the fall guy and be a good soldier’. Who will be the next Energy secretary? Your guess is as good as mine, but since the secretary safeguards the US nuclear arsenal I hope someone gets the nod.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 4th, 2019
Back Next Week. I’ve been slacking with the daily column, mostly because SPI and the day job have been taking on a lot of time building the industry’s most bankable and valuable racking company. If every installer started using Quick Mount PV products tomorrow, I promise to give you all the commentary you’d ever want! Until then, split duties will continue. (Speaking of, there’s no reason you’re not already using our products, they’re great and made in Walnut Creek!) Have a great weekend!
Survey. Yesterday you got a survey if you attended SPI. The message is simple, great show but you need the ITC so at least 5% of the profits should be contributed to the Defend the ITC fund. Let’s see how many of you we can get to fill out the survey!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 3rd, 2019
Silence From DC. Since my proposal this week for the SPI organizers to revert $500k of profits to the ITC extension organizing effort, I have heard from many of you but nobody with the power of the purse. The message was delivered and heard but the response is in the mail (or not). Look, this is a one in a million chance but I am hoping that doing the right thing becomes reality.
Smart Energy. There is a lot of logic in pricing the cost of carbon in everything that we buy but that’s not the way our economy works. We subsidize the entire economic value chain so that consumers get whatever they want. So a carbon tax makes sense, though politicians are unlikely to go for it but it seems to be the topic that DC wants to debate so we don't actually do anything tangible.
ITC Homework. What are you doing today to extend the ITC? Have you called your members’ office or visited the district office?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 2nd, 2019
Will Illinois Step Up Again. It’s been almost two years since we hosted SolarWakeup Live! Chicago where we talked about CEJA and the possibilities ahead. Now the legislature needs to do more work to keep the momentum going and solar will get its report card on the promises made on environmental justice, job training and collaboration with labor.
A Natural Bridge To Nowhere. I normally stay out of the natural gas debate focusing on solar instead. We don’t need gas to do poorly to prop solar up. Here’s the thing thou, the consumers are getting conned by regulators and utilities. Gas is a necessary evil currently but it’s not cheap. Monopolies get a free 30-year hedge on natural gas commodity pricing, land and resource benefits and a guaranteed return higher than any sponsor in solar gets. So I am glad to see that the MN PSC sees the downside of letting the utility saddle the consumers with another stranded asset.
Diversified Portfolio. Saudi Aramco is finalizing its plan for the much-awaited IPO. I’m interested to see what, if anything the S-1 says about renewable energy. I don’t think it will but you could see some vision of the future if Aramco does indeed include mentions of solar.
FERC Divided. FERC is a bipartisan commission, the two leaders of the Senate send their names to the White House for nominations. (If you need a lesson on how this works, watch West Wing episode S1E21) Anyways, this time the White House is planning on getting its ridiculous plans through FERC by leaving the Dem seat open. This could be bad, very bad.
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Yann