This is your SolarWakeup for September 3rd, 2019
Keep Calm and Solar On. Every one of my non-solar friends has asked me about the Walmart/Tesla lawsuit. Without resolving the issue, Walmart made solar seem risky for everyday Americans. The funny part of it is that Walmart and Amazon (who chimed in as well) are both signing new solar deals after the fires. The corporates are learning from the issue and continuing on and it would be great if they said something to that effect publicly.
The Partisan Divide. For some reason, climate change continues to be a divided issue in America. When asked if climate change is a major risk to the US, only one in four republicans said yes while three in four democrats respond affirmative. In all, it reaches 57% which is hardly a majority issue but in the politics of 50 plus 1, it may be enough.
Stationary Disasters. If you spent any time living in Florida you know that every three hours you get your National Hurricane Center update. Spend a decade living in Max Mayfield’s cone of uncertainty and you start looking for key metrics during the latest advisory. One is the pressure of the system, under 900mb is really bad, and the other is the movement. Most storms say something like WNW at 8mph as the storm seeks warmer waters. Hurricane Dorian got as low as 910mb before making landfall in the Bahamas and has been pounding the islands for almost 24 hours. Last night the storm continued to be stationary which is unheard of, especially at those wind speeds. This is undoubtedly related to climate change and no amount of ice on those waters will help.
A Coal Blueprint. Instead of doing the IRP dance around the Country, I hope that a think tank provides a reliable, accepted study on coal plant retirements. Running these plants to the end of their useful lives is entirely not useful nor in the best financial interest of consumers. And now, the end is near and so coal faces the final curtain…
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 29th, 2019
The Munis Battle Solar. No surprise that utilities in Florida are preparing a plan to go after solar. The surprise is that the attack is coming from the munis from the muni group FMPA. FMPA was one of the first Florida entities to push for solar plants to get done under their all requirements project and helped several members do innovative things. Fighting solar actually ignore their history of supporting solar. The key is to watch FMEA, the group that moves policies around the State bureaucracies. One reason to not be shocked is that Jacksonville Electric (JEA) has been a big loser when it comes to creating solar opportunities for homeowners, very anti-competitive by them!
Tesla Podcast. A Vanity Fair article about Tesla/Elon Musk is getting the podcast treatment by Axios’ Dan Primack. At the risk of being called a defender or hater, it’s always one, I will let you listen and make up your own mind.
More PURPA, More SEIA. Without being on the board or in the room at SEIA, I know from those in the know that PURPA is one of the hottest topics in the room. With FERC commissioners doing coal roundtables, it’s hopeful that SEIA is trying to get the group to push for the equity that PURPA calls for by the regulators.
Harris Gets Climate Plan Ready. Senator Harris is readying her plan on climate with a major distinction. While the Senator was an earlier co-sponsor fo the Green New Deal resolution, she also did work fighting fossil fuel companies in California as AG. This shows that Harris may be differentiation herself from the other plans by highlighting the executive and legal avenues to actually create change through non-legislative avenues.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 28th, 2019
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 27th, 2019
Long Duration Dollars. The former head of energy storage at Tesla, Mateo Jaramillo, leads an energy startup focused on long-duration energy storage to create ‘caseload’ renewables. Form Energy nabbed a new $40million in venture funding in their series B to bring that technology closer to market. Investors include Capricorn, Breakthrough Energy Ventures and Macquarie. Joining the board is clean energy pro, Michael Skelly.
G7 No Show. Yesterday the G7 met to discuss climate change and one chair was notably (embarrassingly) empty. If you guessed that Trump was absent as the group talked about clean energy and a burning Amazon, you would be correct. I get that there is a political separation from the issue, but are we so far removed from this that our Country can’t represent its point of view on the topic at a global leadership event?
Yang Gang Goes Green. Andrew Yang has released his climate plan that is somewhere in the top 5 when measured by total cost, yes this is a rating right now. It is in 3rd place and exceeds Governor Inslee’s plan in terms of federal investment. This is directly related to the activism by voters and the leadership of the Inslee campaign.
Getting Paid. In case you were wondering or worried, solar power plants are getting paid for generation by PG&E. In a public release, Topaz Solar Farm announced that it had received monies for July’s generation in August. I would like to know if the amount due just prior to the bankruptcy is still held up in the process or if it has been released by the administrator.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 26th, 2019
No Contract, No Term, Discovered. After my comments about a no FICO score community solar contract, I heard from many of you that Nexamp was doing just that so I spoke with several members of their executive team last week about their offering. As background, the company is both a developer and owner of community solar assets offering homeowners a contract that is a simple discount to the savings rate without having to run a FICO score. Homeowners are the target through mostly digital marketing and even though the contract has no term and easy cancellation, homeowners have a hard time differentiating between community solar and retail energy providers. After educating the customer, Nexamp has found success in attracting customers as well as financing projects. Financing is made easier since Mitsubishi backs the company for equity, sponsor and tax, but lenders are not charging extra for the lack of FICO. Absent of getting in a room with tax equity investors, I don’t know how scalable the approach is but it surely gives Nexamp a leg up for customer acquisition. Good to see others are playing outside of the sandbox.
More Fires. Amazon is out with a comment that they also had a fire on a SolarCity developed and owned project. I’m getting a bit annoyed about the fires being labelled as Tesla panels because it doesn’t appear to be that accurate. All indication from O&M pros is that this is related to poor wiring and wire management practices which makes me ask why this isn’t happening on other projects. Tesla isn’t the only operator of solar projects that had subpar installations but maybe they got away with less independent engineering oversight than those using all outside capital sources.
Matching Up To EEI. If you’re not criticizing or punching those bigger than you then you are a bully. That’s why I read with joy the critique of DTE Energy’s resource plan by SEIA. SEIA normally plays inside the lines, both Aisling their statements to achieve an outcome with a win-win understanding. This ain’t it and I want more of it.
Next Dem Administration. When the White House eventually gets a democrat resident, the solar industry needs to stage a takeover of the TVA board. I’m talking Abby Hopper, Anne Hoskins, David Crane, solar pro types. Experience in the sector but no doubt about the fact that no-one is writing a plan to add solar by 2038! I want to write a plan to put solar on every house and power every school with solar.
Sad Solar News. It was with great sadness that I heard yesterday that the founder and former CEO of SolarEdge passed away at the age of 54. SolarEdge is a great example of success in solar, from founding in 2006 to a market cap nearing $4billion with hundreds of millions in cash on the balance sheet. In a sea of rising boats, SolarEdge has shown capital markets that hardware in clean tech is possible and profitable. My thoughts are with Guy’s family and the SolarEdge team.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 23rd, 2019
But Why? In an unfortunate and entirely predictable move, the DNC voted to not host a climate debate. This will change, of course, because people are angry that they are not getting the discussion they want. I don’t understand why people don’t do the obviously right thing before people get up in arms.
A Bold Plan. Senator Sanders has his climate plan and it doesn’t lack ambition. 100% carbon free energy by 2030 and carbon neutral economy by 2050. One of the interesting ideas is doing it all on the Federal government’s balance sheet and selling the electricity through the market. Essentially, this is a national feed in tariff or PPA plan which should go a long way to lowering capital costs. Also interesting is this is all prefaced with calling climate change a national emergency therefore giving the President broad authority to act.
New Tweak To Green Tariffs. Separately but in similar fashion, North Carolina and Virginia is allowing large users to negotiate directly with generators. Not all is settled on the rules and dispute since you can imagine how Dominion feels about this.
Checking In On TV. Sunpower’s CEO is interviewed about the solar market and the impact of tariffs on the market. Good use of 5 of your minutes today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 22nd, 2019
Inslee Drops Out. Governor Inslee announced last night that he was ending his presidential campaign. The short story is that his campaign ran out of money faster than it ran out of ideas. Just a few hours before announcing the end, Inslee’s campaign rolled out the 6th plan focused on climate change with a focus on rural land optimization. This comes on the heels of a troubling report of the impact on land due to climate change.
The Legacy Continues. If Inslee had one main impact on the politics of today it was the climate debate. He pushed for it and fought for it and while he won’t be on the stage, it has become politically impossible for frontrunners to stay off the stage. After initially having a scheduling conflict, Senator Harris’ campaign found the political blowback untenable and made the schedule work. The Inslee plans are also alive and well, plans that other campaigns can take on in whole or parts.
Painting A Picture. Some solar folks have been reading the Walmart complaint about the fires and I appreciate the many emails I received on the topic yesterday. There is little doubt that this had a lot to do with procedures and shortcuts on the electrical side. Not playing solar defense attorney but if a house were wired with similar craftsmanship, it likely wouldn’t make it to the end of the mortgage either. That being said, I’ve been vocal about solar’s need to get better quality out there, this is a mainstream media reminder that now is the time.
A Plan To Focus On. When the New York Times ran a headline about flooding in Hamburg, Iowa and the mayor clearly stating that this is the living effect of climate change, the world changed in some ways. As an industry we need to tell the story of solar in farming communities, benefits of job creation, financial reward and community benefits. If I had a staff of reporters that’s the story I would want to tell. On the ground in rural communities because there is a solar overlap somewhere.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 21st, 2019
Not A Great Headline. Yesterday Walmart filed suit against Tesla. The suit is based centered around the portfolio of projects that SolarCity installed on over 200 locations over the past decade and 7 sites that caught on fire since 2012. Project financing aside and I haven’t seen the specific power purchase agreements, this isn’t a good look for solar installation, commissioning and maintenance. The pictures tell the story of near misses and fires starting when the sites were de-energized. More importantly, how did no-one know that the portfolio has been turned off for so long if the facts of the article are correct? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We have to care about building better solar, not only do we need to keep each other honest but we also need to hold ourselves accountable. Saving a dollar and doing it the wrong way shouldn’t be an option for your business. This also provides a highlight for asset owners that try to go cheap on commissioning or send day labor to do electrical O&M. I am not going to let the customers off the hook either, don’t make solar developers and installers get into the dirt because you will get what you pay for. If you like that 50% savings PPA then expect the corresponding installation quality. Hire consultants and advisors that will make sure the longevity of the system is taken care of no matter how many times the SPV changes hands.
Would You Fly Electric? I drive an electric car and would love for every bus to be electric. I’m all aboard the electric trains and ferries. Not sure how I feel about a Boeing 777EV though. Love the concept but someone else needs to fly it first. At least we know the space shuttle won’t be electric anytime soon! (Physics majors stay out of my inbox)
The Microgrid C&I Future. Microgrids are great and have awesome potential but that industry is going to learn some painful lessons that C&I solar worked on for the last 20 years. It’s hard, it’s slow and you better learn to underwrite credit in a way that is more efficient than solar.
Rent The Panels. I don’t want to double your Tesla stories but renting the panels seems like a crappier marketing tool than the original no term contract financing/lease that was presented a few days ago. It also highlights what I would consider a fatal flaw in the offering. Solar panels will be better in 5 years. Elon said that buying is better and he’s right in a sense but he’s wrong because you’re better off doing solar in this structure for 5 years, pay the $1,500 and then replace them with newer and better widgets. Find me the clause that will cover Tesla from mass removals down the road.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 20th, 2019
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 19th, 2019
The Yang Gang +1. Elon Musk is public with his support for Andrew Yang. Let’s see who his next tweet of support goes to.
Solar Without Term. Late last week Tesla rolled out its next offering meant to jumpstart their solar division. The offer is that homeowners can get solar installed for as little as $50 and choose between three system sizes, small, medium or large. At any moment the homeowner can cancel and have the solar removed for $1,500. The monthly fee is able to go up according to early reviews of the offering. Before touching on the obvious questions, I love the idea. It’s simple and easy to understand for the homeowner. They’ll save money and produce solar without feeling the uneasiness of a 20 year deal. Tesla does take the ITC and would have to deal with the clawback if the system is removed in the 5 year period. I also have questions about the roof condition after the system is removed, caulk the holes? Color me curious to see how this plays out. Would love to hear from some of the finance folks though on how this could work on traditional structures.
Where Else? Speaking of terms in solar contracts, I want to see this happening with community solar. I want to interview the solar developer that signs subscribers up without asking for credit score or requiring a term on the contract. Month to month and if you don’t pay then your spot goes to the next person. If you know such a daring individual, introduce me.
Situational Awareness. This is DC inside baseball but Neera Tanden is important in the world of progressive politics. Yesterday she tweeted about the idea of putting solar almost everywhere in America and I gave my political blueprint. If she’s saying it out loud, don’t be surprised if campaigns are listening.
Hot Out There. July was the hottest month in history and ERCOT is calling its second emergency in a week. Earlier the market hit highs of $9,000/MWh. Wonder if any merchant solar or storage operators were in the market during those highs and if they’re year has been made.
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Yann