This is your SolarWakeup for March 1st, 2019
Tesla, It’s Here. Tesla has announced some major changes including the release of the long awaited $35k model (before incentives) and guided to almost half a million cars to be manufactured. That’s a lot of EVs. The result of the lower priced car is that the stores will be closed and all purchasing will be done online. This obviously impacts the plan to sell solar in the stores and maybe the idea is to also sell solar online. Installers tell me that they are doing well with Powerwall 2 but I don’t see how Tesla Energy will focus on keeping up with others on the solar side.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 28th, 2019
New POD, Solar Bill Of Rights. Last week a new solar bill was filed in California but this bill was focused on consumers’ rights and bipartisan. The Solar Bill of Rights is driven by the Solar Rights Alliance and I speak with their executive director about the bill and the focus of the SRA. The SRA needs you to think about how you can be helpful in this as well, please subscribe, rate and review on your favorite podcast app. This episode is presented by UtilityAPI
Solar Tariff Fallout. Take a moment to read this article by Bloomberg on the topic of the steel and aluminum tariffs. In many ways, the factories (including the one at Quick Mount PV) are exactly the jobs that Trump seems to focus on. Many of the racking companies in solar use 3rd party contract manufacturers and many of those are in the US. With the tariffs in place, domestic commodity pricing has increased and importing parts and pieces has become more expensive than procuring finished products abroad according to the reporting. This means that the local jobs that depend on competitive commodity pricing are hurt by the tariffs causing the result to be the opposite of the intended effect of the policy in the first place.
Developing In Florida. Disney is going solar with a 50MW project through their coop utility. There has been some quiet development out of the team from Origis like this project and the one in Tallahassee which was first discussed in 2008. Nice to see things happening in my former home state given the decade I spent joking that the only solar jobs were at the airport for those of us flying out of State. Now Florida is the second largest jobs employer and has their own “SPI”. I must have missed the phone call from the show producers :).
Missed TVA Opportunity. During the Obama years, the solar industry should have absolutely packed the team at the TVA and at the TVA board. This is also true for the regulatory bodies across the Country, the NJ BPU President was recruiting for staff at the last SolarWakeup Live! event. We need solar advocates to be working in the regulatory bodies, maybe a Federalist club version of solar where we provide internships and fellowships to folks that want to work in regulatory bodies.
SolarWakeupLive.com. SWLB20 for 20% Off, 1 month out!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 27th, 2019
Diving Deeper Into GND. Following up to yesterday’s thoughts I wanted to get deeper into GND and the politics. First is the podcast, Pod Save America, which is about the most popular podcast in America bringing the topic to the mainstream and breaking down the reasons for the Green New Deal. Second is looking at a tweet from David Axelrod, courtesy of Jonathan Silver commenting on it so that I had it in my timeline. People are talking about climate change and environmental issues but forgetting about the renewable energy component of it, more on that to come.
SEIA’s Position. I wanted to see where SEIA was regarding the largest proposal that impacts our industry in DC. Here is the comment from SEIA CEO, Abby Hopper: “Climate change is real, and I am glad the Green New Deal takes a big and bold approach to deep decarbonization. There is no doubt that solar will play a significant role in slashing greenhouse gases. That said, any climate solution must have bipartisan support. We look forward to seizing this new momentum and working with members of Congress in both parties on policies that expand solar deployment, reduce electricity costs for hardworking families and help decarbonize the American economy.”
But, There’s A Shift. Right as I got this comment from SEIA, which is in line of my personal tendency to go towards the goal line (compromise), possible primary contender and GOP leader, Governor John Kasich, came out to tell the GOP to stop denying climate change. This wasn’t a philosophical or ideological statement and this is where we tend to be wrong on energy policy. The comment from Kasich was a political reality that voters support renewable energy policies and environmental preservation by enormous margins. Voting against solar is simply put, bad politics and that is the argument we should be making in DC and State Capitols. That is the message we should be sending about the GND, cutting red tape and getting rid of every restriction that stops solar from getting on homes is good for a politicians future and supporting incumbent monopolies is bad.
Where It Happens. If you want to see where politics of renewable energy play well, look at States and Cities, municipal utilities and cooperatives that are run by the consumer shareholders. They are the canary in the solar mine.
Companies Weigh In. Texas is a great example that shows where market driven decisions are applied. Wind and solar are the energy source of choice for America’s corporations, including the world’s largest oil majors.
What It Means. I will be doing a deep dive about the politics and what YOU can be doing to get involved. A new SolarWakeup podcast drops tomorrow and I will have political insiders at SolarWakeup Live! in Boston on March 26th. Get your tickets now, we have about 25% of the space left. solarwakeuplive.com
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 26th, 2019
Climate Leadership In Mass. The MA House Speaker has come out for a 10 year, $1Billion program to advance clean energy infrastructure. This is a long leap into the future for the legislature that is still pushing to advance net metering caps and is now running the SMART program. At the same time, solar is growing within corporate and community solar programs, many of which will be discussed at Live! Use DISCOUNT CODE SWLB20 for 20% off your ticket at solarwakeuplive.com
Insider’s View From Climate Coverage. I enjoy reading Amy Harder’s columns because as a well known reporter and journalist she covers things I find interesting. She also doesn’t shy away from giving her point of view as she does in this column about why writing about climate is becoming more interesting in this environment. Her column made the Mike Allen top 10 yesterday morning which means the White House is trying to learn about climate and energy journalism right now. That’s part of the interesting side effect of the politics of the Green New Deal and kids fighting for climate change policies, our market is talked about more than ever before. I think the solar industry actually does a pretty bad job of transcending the media landscape given the central role we play in all of this and the public perception/approval that the solar industry does. I think it’s time to see folks like Abby Hopper, Bernadette del Chiaro and Adam Browning on stage next to Al Gore, AOC or in studio at Morning Joe or Fox and Friends.
Tough DC Take On Huawei. The headlines have been brutal for Huawei, which has been working hard to enter the US with the inverter business. Most of the news coverage have been aside from the solar angle but that is now changed. Senator Cornyn wrote the letter which was signed by 11 Senators including Burr and Warner.
No. I wrote a few tweets about this yesterday because the one aspect of the Green New Deal that I have found liberating is the uncompromising approach it has. It’s 100% and it’s in 10 years. Most RPS either water down the percentages or take a long term approach. Why would a utility build another gas plant you ask? Because it is the best thing for the rate base today even though the utility could forward buy solar with storage at rates much better.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 25th, 2019
Live! In Boston, DISCOUNT CODE. The agenda for SolarWakeup Live! Is almost final and we’ve got a very good and informative topics on deck. If you haven’t been to one of our events, you’ll get an inside look to the business and policies that make the market move. Use DISCOUNT CODE SWLB20 for 20% off your ticket at solarwakeuplive.com
Monday Thoughts. A short column this morning but here are some things I’m reading and thinking about. The green new deal is sparking a discussion in politics about how energy should be generated in America and what the policies around that should look like. The editorial board at the New York Times opines on the topic and David Roberts from Vox takes a deep dive on it. Intrigued about Kevin de Leon’s run for the Los Angeles Council as the next step, this could mean big changes coming to LA when he inevitably runs for Mayor. KDL was the driver of the SB100 legislation that drove California to 100% renewable energy. Yesterday Trump tweeted that he’s extending the deadline as the US and China negotiate a trade deal. Good news given the pending tariff increase that was slated for March 1st.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 22nd, 2019
Live! In Boston, DISCOUNT CODE. The agenda for SolarWakeup Live! Is almost final and we’ve got a very good and informative topics on deck. If you haven’t been to one of our events, you’ll get an inside look to the business and policies that make the market move. Use DISCOUNT CODE SWLB20 for 20% off your ticket at solarwakeuplive.com
Ratebasing Boondoggles. A brutal report for IOUs is out that is just plain nuts. Here are some stats about the spending by utilities which favors spending more and getting less since making money for shareholders is based on that dynamic. Transmission project spending is averaging $20billion per year up from $2billion per year in 1990. Many projects go forward with competitive bids and utilities are averaging 34% higher than estimated costs on those projects. On the other hand, when competition is allowed, bids come in 40% below those same estimates. Next time you hear monopolies talk about cost shift for solar, remember the states on rate based projects as one more reason that competition is key.
Point Counterpoint, GND Edition. Former NARUC President, Travis Kavulla, writes in the National Review about the Green New Deal. Reading between the lines, Travis is more focused on arguing that the utility model needs to change. His concern is that a Green New Deal would lead to major rate basing of projects by utility monopolies that reward higher cost, less efficient projects (see above) before transitioning to his further point. “Why not instead, if consumers are demanding clean energy, adopt policies that would make it easier for them to get it through their own choices? What the United States needs is not a Green New Deal. It needs a Customer Empowerment Act. Only 13 states allow all customers a choice of electricity supplier.” Case in point, GND gets clicks and using that to argue for consumer choice is worth it.
South Carolina Outlook. A new solar bill has passed the South Carolina State House and it heads to the Senate. It is a compromise based on a year of negotiation and a pretty contentious legislative session in 2018. However, when voted on in the house, it passed 110-0 and will now be heard in the Senate.
School Walkout, T-Shirt Ideas. On March 15th, thousands of kids will walk out of schools to make a case for elected officials to protect the environment for their future. While my kids (8 and 7) will probably be asked to stay in the classroom, I am hoping they indulge me in a t shirt messaging. I’d love to get your thoughts on t-shirts that are appropriate and clever! Send your recommendations by hitting reply.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 21st, 2019
Small Coops Go Big On Solar. This is going to happen more often going forward, this being the coop that you’ve never heard of signing a PPA with what seems to be an extra 0. This is also true for markets that you may not be focused on, and it creates the goal for me to host a SolarWakeup Live! in every State across the Country even though Boston keeps me coming back. We added a great speaker yesterday, Marc Roper from ENGIE Storage, to talk about how the SMART program and ISO-NE rules enable energy storage to have a great revenue upside.
Tigers Know Better. Trump is creating a new climate change panel and it’s obvious pick for the chair is a climate science denier. I’ve known many impressive Princeton grads in my time and aside from their lousy lacrosse skills, they tend to be thoughtful and willing to look at the data before making up their mind. Every now and then comes along a Physics professor that believes more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is good for the earth and in this case that professor will lead the US Government in discussing climate change. Do better Tigers!
PG&E Creates Microgrid Future. The articles about microgrids are increasing in depth and occurrence and much of that comes from people trying to understand how micrograms can help provide more resilience to the grid when transmission lines need to be pulled back for safety. The important question for regulators and legislators is why the speed of implementation of distributed generation should be held back at all and what they can do to enable the speed of development to increase capacity of renewables within the network. More discussion on this soon.
Sleep Easy Bramble Cay Melomy. A tiny rat that inhabited a vegetated cay near the Great Barrier Reef is now officially extinct due to impact of climate change. The cay had been inundated several times over the past few decades and maybe this doesn’t matter to humans given what and where this is happening. So here is the quote from Aldous Huxley that drives the point home, "That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.”
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 20th, 2019
Community Solar Goes Big Time. New Mexico passes policy in the house and brings it to the Senate. Florida files a bill and Pennsylvania is expected to be right behind it. That’s what was in my inbox today, all about community solar. This is an interesting twist on policy as I did not expect the market to lean in on community solar but I understand why it is the perfect blend for legislators. It is also a great topic to solve financing for solar in an era where capital may not trust utility contracts for the next 20 years given the PG&E bankruptcy. Part of the unknown is how to execute on the projects and that is why I am interviewing two leaders in the space at SolarWakeup Live! in Boston. Check out the agenda and get your tickets right now!
Solar Consumers Go To The Capitol. This is primarily a California story but it could come to a State near you soon. The Solar Rights Alliance is working to make consumers the central advocates for solar policy and they have unveiled the Solar Bill of Rights in Sacramento yesterday. Instead of solar pros in yellow shirts, it was everyday consumers advocating for their right to go solar. As we all learned a long time ago, you’ve got to fight, for your right, to go solar.
FERC Wants Last Say. In a court filing in bankruptcy court, FERC lawyers made the case that they will seek to have the last say to approve any changes to PPAs signed by PG&E after PG&E has convinced the bankruptcy courts that they should be allowed to cancel them. Solar will be watching this closely.
Harder Line On Shell. In a related note from my writeup yesterday, Amy Harder from Axios is looking at Shell from the other angle. A view from the companies future decisions about policy advocacy, trade associations and how it behaves in an era where it looks to be involved in a hybrid world of clean tech and oil. Becoming a tradition industrial for the 21st century may take a wide view and could require advocacy decisions that choose next decade over next year.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 19th, 2019
Shell Buys Sonnen. Shell is on a buying spree and they’re now getting into the home with the acquisition of Sonnen, the behind the meter energy storage company. This comes just a few weeks after buying Greenlots the EV charging company and less than a year since investing in Sonnen. Sonnen had raised about $180million in venture funding which makes the exit price all the more interesting. Can this part of the value chain attract the investments and exits that make the circular momentum gain traction? I see how this may very well be the case, especially on the heels of Sunrun’s victory in the ISO-NE capacity auction which creates additional revenue upside for our market that we have long been touting. Congrats to the Sonnen team, very happy for their success and look forward to seeing what’s next in their development.
SolarWorld Price Revealed. In the annual filing from SunPower, their purchase price for SolarWorld assets were revealed. The consideration was $26million plus some contingencies. Not a bad deal for what once was worth north of a billion dollars. To put this in context, the sale of SunPower’s microinverter assets and IP to Enphase brought in $25million in cash plus 7.5million shares of the ENPH stock. Read it for yourself here, on page 4.
Renewable Energy Gets Political. This is a pivotal moment in national politics. Now that the resolution for the Green New Deal has been released, the Senate Majority Leader wants to use it in attack politics. McConnell is looking to bring the bill to the floor and tie the Democrats to the bill by making them put their votes where their talking points have been. I think it’s a strong move by the Kentuckian except that I believe that it will backfire. Democrats are likely to vote for it and make their case to the people that more renewable energy is better than less. That working on rooftops installing solar is better than being in a coal mine and that taxpayer subsidies shouldn’t be used to extract oil and gas out of the ground. Yes, it is an ambitious goal but the American people seem to be for the bill when asked about the individual items in it. I’d venture to guess that some Republican Senators like Senator Gardner from Colorado may think about voting for it as well. This is where polling may intersect with politics.
Big Money For Big EVs. Rivian, the seductive SUV and pickup truck company, has raised $700million for their vehicles. You can reserve one online, as they’ve adopted the Musk deposit capital raise plan as well. Interestingly, Amazon was a lead investor in the round which means that part of the pitch deck was a interchangeable delivery cab on the EV chassis.
Tariffs Kill Manufacturing. REC Silicon, much like Hemlock before it, is telling the market that the multiple levels of tariffs make manufacturing silicon in the US difficult. The company is planning a 2 month ‘temporary shutdown’ of its Washington State plant at Moses Lake. Manufacturing in the US is hard enough, and when you put tariffs on top of that it becomes very difficult for companies to execute a business plan. I’m looking forward to seeing the market work itself out of this temporary problem, and I use temporary as a hopeful addition.
NFL plus Solar. With consumer support of solar through the roof, especially when it’s on their roof, you will see companies doing major marketing deals with the largest consumer brands like the NFL. Powerhouse Solar is barnstorming the mid-atlantic and the midwest with their NFL partnerships as well as their amazing commercials, I’m a big fan of them! This marketing tactic is a bit out of the NRG playbook which may have mistimed the market’s ability to deliver mainstream solar to more homeowners than is possible today.
Boston. Don’t forget. Get your tickets and join me at SolarWakeup Live! Boston on March 26th. You can also sponsor and support this free newsletter.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 15th, 2019
Boston. solarwakeuplive.com get your tickets now, the agenda is starting to be really interesting and I’m looking forward to seeing many of you.
What I’m Reading. Going into this long weekend I am interested to read the details of the changes that SunPower is undertaking while getting deeper into residential. Within some tweet storms, Trump pushed TVA to double down on coal and this appears to have been ignored and PG&E is fighting for their restructuring across many battle fronts. With wildfire season ahead (albeit the rainy season we’ve had), something will have to planned for in the next few months.
Have a great weekend!
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Yann