This is your SolarWakeup for February 15th, 2019
Boston. solarwakeuplive.com get your tickets now, the agenda is starting to be really interesting and I’m looking forward to seeing many of you.
What I’m Reading. Going into this long weekend I am interested to read the details of the changes that SunPower is undertaking while getting deeper into residential. Within some tweet storms, Trump pushed TVA to double down on coal and this appears to have been ignored and PG&E is fighting for their restructuring across many battle fronts. With wildfire season ahead (albeit the rainy season we’ve had), something will have to planned for in the next few months.
Have a great weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 14th, 2019
Tickets. We are almost halfway sold out for SolarWakeup Live! on March 26th in Boston. Get your now before they are gone, like a freight train. www.solarwakeuplive.com
Manufacturing Partnership. New reporting by Reuters is out that SunPower is looking for a manufacturing partner (I hear Flex has a new awesome CEO, according to Dan Shugar Linkedin post) that would acquire parts of the manufacturing operations in Hillsboro Oregon and make modules through a JV. This shows that SunPower is continuing the track to be focused on the market share and margins created in the residential market.
The Fight Over Storage. We will talk about this a lot over the next few months and years. Incumbent market utilities will do everything they can to limit the market access for energy storage assets including among other things the requirement for storage to be able to operate for 10 straight hours. The challenges will also attempt to require certain charging parameters for the assets in order to limit the revenue that those assets can generate.
PG&E Strike Team. Maybe Newsom has a member of his staff reading SolarWakeup, maybe we just had similar ideas. Governor Newsom is creating a ‘Strike Team’ to convene a plan regarding the PG&E situation. More on this to come!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 13th, 2019
Job Number Headline. Solar jobs dropped in 2018 by nearly 8,000 jobs (~3%) and they did so due to the direct actions by Trump. Those are facts that can’t be misplaced. While that makes for a juicy headline, some consolidation due to efficiency in the market is a positive. I would also argue that some of those jobs are made up in the storage market. Keep in mind that both the 201 tariffs and aluminum/steel tariffs hurt the solar industry directly. So while this is the second year in a row that the employment has shrunk, the market is growing in capacity this year again.
The Report. See the results of the full report here.
The Upside. Most of the job losses came in California and Massachusetts, which aligns with the delay in the SMART program and slowdown in the utility scale procurement due to the 201 tariff process. The upside comes in the other States, some which have had to wait for the ‘free market’ to work itself out and now solar is competitive on cost alone. Florida is now the second largest jobs market for solar in the Country. I’ve been waiting for this to happen ever since 5 of us met at that hotel breakfast in 2007 to work with the Florida PSC to draft the net metering rules. The market growth is also why Quick Mount is the first manufacturer to open a regional warehouse to provide industry leading customer service to the Florida market. Don’t remind me of the irony of having lived in Florida for ten years working in solar only to move to California right when it turns around!
Manufacturing Insight. There has been a lot of pressure on manufacturing in 2018. First it came from the delay while the 201 decision was being made and then it doubled down with the tariff on all imported metals. As a manufacturer, utilization of the factory operations is instrumental to efficient company management. When the market disrupts predictable forecasts, the impacts can be detrimental to employment growth even when the market expands overall.
LA Power Plants. Mayor Garcetti announced yesterday major changes to power plant rebuilding plans at LADWP. This is an environmentally driven decision that will required LADWP to reset its views on power generation, grid reliability and energy procurement. It will also have to move rather quickly and hopefully look towards distributed generation to play a part in the process as well.
Trump/Xi Part Deux. Don’t underestimate the impact of the trade talks with China that are happening at this moment, all eyes are on the potential deal to be made at Mar-a-Lago next week.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 12th, 2019
Climate In Presidential Politics. In prior presidential campaigns climate change was an after thought and many debates skipped over the topic altogether. With half a dozen announced candidates, I can’t think of a single speech that doesn’t touch on climate change within the first few minutes of the announcement. That includes Trump, who comes at it often from the other side of the argument, many times conflating weather with climate. There is more reporting on the fact that republicans are excited about the green new deal for the fact that it may be used against democrats in campaigns.
Listening To David Crane. At the most recent Powerhouse event, Emily Kirsch interviewed David Crane about his career. For those catching up, Crane took an economic and moral stand when he was at the top. Rarely do you see corporate courage because it tends to end poorly for the executive or at least feels extremely lonely. In Crane’s case, his vision did not align with shareholders short term vision for higher stock prices because running a public company includes daily performance reviews with every single shareholder holding a different goal. I personally enjoyed the comment about CEO’s being lonely, I find that part of the job is often to guide in the right direction (quickly) while also providing a safety net in colleagues decision making. On the other hand, the CEO rarely has a place to go to for his or her decisions.
Performance Based Utilities. Keep a close eye on the proceedings in Hawaii about performance based regulations for the utility. This is a topic that is being circulated not only in Hawaii but across the mainland as well. The idea is proposed to enable distributed generation and demand response technologies to have a valuable benefit to the utility. If utilities are the toll collector on the highway, advocates would like the utility to benefit most when renewables, DERs and EVs have equal or prioritized access to the fast lanes. Let EV charging companies interconnect within days or weeks, not months or years. Let DERs compete every minute of every day for revenue.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 11th, 2019
Boston Live! Get your tickets to SolarWakeup Live! Boston happening on March 26th. Great event and agenda being put together to make you more competitive. If you haven’t been to a SolarWakeup event, please come out to Boston. I do everything I can to give you the information that I would want if I were in your shoes. Happy to connect you with folks that have come out and like this alternative model of conference conversations.
The BFD GND. Congresswoman AOC and Senator Markey released the draft resolution also known as the Green New Deal. This bill is part green and part new deal, highlighting some of the biggest issues facing the Country and the reasons for proposing the resolution. Note that this is not legislation at this moment, more of a battle cry to create laws that aim to execute on the proposals.
Trump Cries Socialism. The GOP and Trump have come out in favor of the GND being a label for the Democrats seeking to divide the Country on this issue. This is a battle to label the resolution as socialism while the Democrats will seek to message the resolution in its part since clean air, clean water, green jobs, renewable energy and fighting climate change all poll well over 70% favorable.
Justice For All. Green New Deal seeks to highlight environmental, financial and social justice within the policies that will drive action against climate change. The sponsors are not only looking to move forward but also seeking to ensure those that have been left behind are leading the pack.
Renewable Energy. Wonks have been quick to skip to this paragraph. Is it 100% renewable energy or clean energy? Is nuclear included? They are missing the point, this is a vision to get as close to 100% within 10 years, 15 years faster than California’s SB100. It also looks to invest billions in energy efficiency while creating a job guarantee for anyone that would like to work in the expanded fields. Any variation of this would be a big growth for the solar market we operate in, from distributed generation to community solar.
Solar Storage ISO Win. Sunrun won a capacity bid in the ISO-NE grid market. This is a big deal and it reached the twitter account for Senator Whitehouse (D-RI). While this is a big win that generates new revenues for the solar plus storage market, it is an example of the new economy fitting within incumbent markets. The capacity win is meant for fossil fuel power plants that want capacity contracts to pay for their existence while raking in double digit returns for energy sales on top of that. The pros call that revenue stacking. What would be the better way? The better way would be for operators of distributed storage assets to be able to bid into the real time market with the right pricing signals that generate additional cash flows for homeowners and businesses. One day, Sunrun may be sending ‘storage dividend’ checks to their customers who want to let the company maximize the value of their investments.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 8th, 2019
Boston. Get your tickets to SolarWakeup Live! Boston happening on March 26th. Great event and agenda being put together to make you more competitive.
What I’m Reading. I’m looking into the details of the Green New Deal resolution released yesterday, the Sunrun capacity auction win and a potential game changing report on utility business models by Rocky Mountain Institute. More in depth coverage on Monday on those topics.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 7th, 2019
100% RE Legislation. Another bill has been filed for 100% renewables, this time in Illinois. This follows a recent trend to not only file legislation but actually pass it as California did last year. When it comes to debating ways to transition off 20th century generation, this may be the political vehicle to accomplish this. CleanChoice CEO and former political operative, Tom Matzzie, commented on twitter “100% might be the ONLY politically feasible solution to decarbonize.”
Nuclear Bailout PA Edition. Here we go again. We’ve seen this story in New Jersey and Illinois most recently where nuclear power plant operators required legislation after threatening the plant closures. The closure of more than 3 plants is threatened including three mile island. Legislators are likely to succumb to the pressures, as they have in every case before this, the question is what will come attached to bill. I’d say we should fight for market pricing signals as opposed to simple incentives. Who is running the renewable energy’s response to this?
Grid Operations. We’ve gone from the polar vortex and ridiculous temperatures to spring like weather this week in many parts of the Country. The new grid is more flexible and operators are getting to crawl before they run. It will be important that the market creates pricing signals to the generators and consumers that are faster and broader. It shouldn’t only be about turning a plant on for 4 hours in 30 minutes or turning home AC units off for an hour. The new grid is faster, more responsive and flexible.
Puerto Rico Future. Everything is a bit slower in Puerto Rico but it seems the energy task force was in Puerto Rico last week and new headlines are being made. I look forward to seeing more happening.
SOTU. I wasn’t very surprised that solar didn’t make a highlight in the 82 minute speech, but the paragraph on the oil export was without context and political truth. Oil exports are up because it was a trade for the solar and wind tax credit extensions. Without the legislative change to eliminate the oil embargo, exports would not exist for the most part. That is the power of the political trade, that’s why I highlight the PA nuclear bailout request and search for moments of leverage where solar can go and flex its advocacy muscles.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 6th, 2019
Tickets March 26th Boston. solarwakeuplive.com to reserve your seat. Don’t forget to sponsor the event which also includes 4 weeks of newsletter sponsorship and listings in the writeup! Best advertising spend in the solar market by far.
The Corporates. We know corporations want more solar and wind energy to offset their consumption but it’s typically a pilot rooftop or too complicated if the energy is generated offsite. The solar industry doesn’t have the knowledge to really service this in a comprehensive fashion across different markets. I know that community solar is meant to make the access more democratic and simple but why should the solar industry wait to grow within market rules that restrict the growth to the speed that incumbent participants desire?
Making CT Solar Better. We are going to revisit solar rules, namely net metering replacement policies, in Connecticut during this legislative session. Bills sponsored by members of both parties highlight the fact that DEEP under the guidance of the Governor and potentially in a deal with some solar folks threw net metering and distributed generation under the proverbial bus. Let’s watch how this plays out.
Fight Over Energy Security. We are barely into 5G cellular service and the FCC is finding itself in a battle with telecom and utilities on the use and access to 6G. The past grid has been a closed system connecting a small number of large power plants. The future grid is going to have solar on every roof across the Country with electric cars charging to and from the grid with energy storage and central power plants. Access points will be plentiful so you can see why utilities may be concerned about he rules that are being created today.
A Big Market. My friends are Roth Capital see the solar market growing to well over 100GW this year and up again in 2020. This is an unprecedented opportunity to deploy capital and save money for consumers. The key for all market participants will be to be wise around margins and determine how everyone can make money to the tune of BP’s 5.7billion last quarter. We cannot be the industry of the future if the entire value chain isn’t running profitable businesses.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 5th, 2019
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. What do Florida, California, New Jersey, Hawaii, New Mexico Minnesota and Missouri have in common? The fastest growing job is solar installer! The median pay was $18.98 per hour and is project to grow over 100% by 2026. There is very little that these states agree on but every politician talks about jobs during their election. Your conversations with legislators needs to start with jobs and close with jobs. Here is the data that supports the hard work you have all been executing on.
Sign Up Here. The Green New Deal is getting the DC legislative treatment and early co-sponsors are being lined up. Do not overlook the fact that the Green New Deal is entirely marketed by Congresswoman Ocasio Cortez and she has made it a must support for primary candidates in the democratic presidential primary. This legislative feat shows that tenure in DC is being challenged by social media followers and influence. I guess you could say that getting likes online is more important than being liked in DC.
Big Solar Saas Money. Aurora Solar has raised $20million in their series A, a round led by Energize VC. This is one of the largest solar meets tech venture investments which shows the investment community is adopting our view on the longevity and scale of the solar market. Aurora sites 60,000 proposals generated on their platform. Other startups in this field include SolarGraf and Sighten which have also brought in venture investments while non-layout startup Energy Toolbase has bootstrapped itself to date.
What Happens Next. The IREC Vision Summit will convene a broad group of prominent national and state clean energy influencers, industry, advocates and educators for a visionary explanation of the pillar policies, practices and workforce training necessary to enable millions more Americans to benefit from clean energy, while supporting broad climate and equity goals. The outcome of the event – March 6, 2019 in Washington, DC – is a Vision Summit guide to a shared clean energy vision for the future.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for February 4th, 2019
SPI Boston. Good morning from 37,000 feet as I fly cross country to what is being called SPI Northeast in Boston, the decision to make the trip was almost halted watching the snooze fest led by the geriatric duo B&B. Make sure to say hello if you are there. Speaking of Boston, get your tickets to SolarWakeup Live! Boston where I will be interviewing some of the solar leaders in the market and give you the information you are looking for. solarwakeuplive.com for tickets and agenda.
Slow Progress in Georgia. The Super Bowl stadium in Atlanta is powered by more renewables than Georgia Power’s consumers. Without boring you with the details, just look at the picture for their IRP filing which shows nuclear going up and coal declining a year 10% in the next 5 years. Making up that resource will be demand shaving and 1,000GW of renewables. Surely we can think of running a better utility than what is proposed but since Fanning will be speaking at BNEF no doubt in a few months, he has plenty of green credit to his name. Maybe he will write a book about renewables when he retires.
Nevada. Good things are happening in Nevada and the legislature can build on it again this year. Consumers are getting more choice and they are choosing solar. Soon enough, the corporations will have access to energy choice as well. Other states should look at what is happening here and emulate it. Maybe my friends in retail energy can tell me if the retail energy companies can compete with IOUs in terms of political donations.
BP Discloses. With all that cash in the bank, BP is looking for ways to get more retail investors interested in its work because a stock price only moves based on the decision of two parties to buy and sell a stock. Look for more headline renewable and EV investments to put that cash to work which is both for longevity and marketing purposes.
I Have A Podcast. Some of you are still surprised to learn that I have a podcast. With over 50 episodes since I started more than a year ago, most of them are relevant regardless of when you listen to them. You can search SolarWakeup on Apple Podcasts or other podcast apps. Please leave a rating and subscribe! https://soundcloud.com/
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Yann