This is your SolarWakeup for October 30th, 2018
Presented By Conti Solar. Conti Solar, a national EPC, O&M, and energy storage company. Our attention to detail, flawless execution and collaborative culture has enabled us to successfully develop and install over 500 MW of solar projects since our early initiatives in 2004. We leverage established partnerships with solar developers, IPPs, utilities, off-takers, suppliers and landowners to streamline project development, design, construction and operations; drive down project costs and create value across all project stakeholders. Majority-owned by Ares EIF with a minority position retained by the Conti Group, Conti Solar is well positioned with a diversified network of industry experts and the financial resources to be a trusted, long-term partner. Learn more at www.contisolar.com.
All About The Lease. Duke is asking the North Carolina commission to approve the deregulated services group to provide a lease for onsite solar projects. This is the first entity that I have heard of to provide onsite leases and the details stay clear of the benefit to the business owner. From a regulatory perspective this is a departure of the standard protocol to separate regulated and deregulate entities. It is not common practice to allow both side of the house to compete in the same market geography.
What’s Next? It is becoming a full time job for many reporters to cover Elon Musk and his adventures to save humanity on Earth and beyond. I do find some of the other musings by Musk to be of interest, especially as he begins the thought process beyond vehicle ownership. This is an interesting logic to have to encounter as the CEO of an auto OEM but reality given the future of autonomous vehicle infrastructure. One utility exec once gave me his viewpoint that the utilities would in fact be the taxi company of the future, consumers paying for it with the same account they paid their utility bill with.
Underestimating Municipalities. This could be the story all about how the municipalities caused the IOU business model to turn upside down. In Kentucky, a place where utilities have always gotten along with customers until of course the free market gave options that made them look at a different option. It’s curious that if IOUs get too greedy and stay anti-solar that Cities across the Country may lead the charge for change.
DG Value Analysis. This may be the first, correct me if I’m wrong, analysis of distributed energy storage projects. In conjunction with net metering (I know it may be duplicative) this could result in a great benefit to the grid by the distributed solar plus storage assets.
Overflow Room Opened. We’ve reached the original capacity of 150 seats for the SolarWakeup Live! event next week but we’re opening the extra seating section for another 30 seats. Get yours now to join us next week.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 29th, 2018
Presented by Aten Solar. Your single source in adding value to your supply chain and procurement. Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs.
Sununu Sticks To Talking Points. A new metering bill in New Hampshire passed the legislature and has been vetoed by the Governor. Sununu gave his best to argue cost shift as the main reason but we know where most of this comes from. One of the useful arguments in other States has come right from the customers, instead of solar professionals. This could be a useful tactic to show that solar means more textbooks for kids paid for with the energy savings.
Hmmm, GM Goes All In On EVs? General Motors proposed a change to the emissions targets to the Trump administration. Instead of focusing on higher efficiency vehicles, GM wants a zero emissions target which puts 7 million EVs on the road by 2030. This appears to be a positive shift towards EVs but also slows the ICE fuel standards by focusing the plan on EVs. The target of 7million by 2030 is rather small in my opinion and it would be best to let the market drive the adoption of EVs instead of the standard.
Solar Makes News, Not Headlines. We had the Musk versus Buffett stories when Nevada was debating net metering and now we have Adelson versus Buffett. The story centers around the energy choice ballot initiative which Adelson wants to see passed. Casinos, which Adelson owns, want to buy their own energy including really cheap desert solar and storage instead of having to buy electricity from NV Energy which Buffett owns. Consumer choice is the argument here. I doubt Buffett is very much involved in the argument except for the push to his CEOs to generate more free cash flow but he’s on the wrong side on this one.
Future of CCAs. By 2030, I expect that most consumers have retail energy choice and an IOU providing wire services. This is the natural progression from the IOU system we have today and surely looks like CCAs are the way to handle that in areas that IOUs have franchise agreements. At some point the market will likely have to make this a bit clearer but in the meantime, California is a test case for what happens when there is mass adoption of CCAs.
Catch Up NY Times. Sunrun versus Tesla/SolarCity, centered around Tesla leaving the top spot is a year too old of a story but just in time for the NYT I guess. Just last week I wrote about the surprising data from the Tesla earnings call and how they appear to make a run at the top spot now instead of coming in shy of Sunrun. Still good for solar to make it to the national pages of the NYT.
One Week Out. Join us next Tuesday in Jersey City for SolarWakeup Live! including a great happy hour right after the event.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 26th, 2018
I hope you have a great weekend, all things are looking up in solar. Solar on!
Better Solar Means Better Market. North Carolina is having all state chapter members sign a code of conduct and ethics. Not only new members but also existing members. It could be expected that the market will educate consumers of this fact and guard consumers to only do business with companies that are members, therefore having signed the pledge. This is in line with the thought that members should do business with members because such a circular membership economy makes the trade group much more valuable and powerful.
Oil Versus Energy. It’s getting loud and public in the industrial battle of the 21st Century. When the Ford Model T came out, oil companies were happy to serve as the fuel source while the Edisons worked to bring light to your home. The industries didn’t cross much and kept away from each other in legislatures across the Country. That is all changing and the coverage from E&E News highlights that oil companies will seek to slow the adoption of EVs by slowing the deployment of charging infrastructure.
How Would You 100%? With SB100 enacted, the CPUC wants to see the plan from utilities about their plan to reach 100%. I look forward to seeing a decarbonized, decentralized energy transition. How would you make it happen?
VA Charges Forward. Virginia has turned quite the corner towards renewables, as if the State has taken the mantle from the mid-Atlantic states and moved to push it to the next limit. The market is still lacking on the distributed side, something I assume is based on the headline cost of electricity without taking into account the network savings. States should be getting their residential markets up to 250MW or better per year without any limitation that causes ups and downs in the market.
More Solar Jobs! More training dollars for solar jobs. This is one of the biggest limitation in the growth of solar companies that cannot find enough labor for their installations. We need to start thinking about the programs that will funnel electricians and installers that work in solar into the workforce so that solar companies can compete for them and help build the solar economy.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 25th, 2018
I am in Minneapolis to participate in the Connexus Energy ribbon cutting for their solar plus storage farm. As a co-op, Connexus is looking to lower the cost of energy for consumers as CEO, Greg Ridderbusch, told me in May. Co-ops are there to help consumers get more solar in every way possible, that’s why I am here even though my day job is in residential solar. Congrats to Connexus and their partners Engie and NextEra on the project.
Presented by Pfister Energy. Changing the way energy is generated and delivered. Pfister Energy is a leading turnkey design-build renewable energy solutions company. Servicing C&I, community and utility sectors for solar, storage and O&M. Visit pfisterenergy.com for more information.
Storage Company For Sale. The energy storage integrator that is providing the 42MWh project to Vistra Energy in Texas is up for sale. We got a view at the prospectus that the investment bankers are shopping and it shows a robust pipeline which isn’t surprising given the rise in interest in energy storage. FlexGen has been aggressive in solar given their knowledge with both AC and DC coupled systems. With energy storage increasing across the Country it is good to see the consolidation happening sooner which will likely increase the bankability of the providers in the market. If pipeline is as valuable in storage as it is in solar and the knowledge barrier in storage is greater, I don’t expect the line of bidders to be short in FlexGen.
Checking In On SolarCity. Solar in Tesla may not be as dead as folks make it out to be. Tesla announced 93MW in the 3rd quarter which is only a few megawatts less than what Sunrun guided towards in the quarter. This means that some of the strategy of selling through the stores is working and the Model 3 ramp up may be helping. I don’t have the detail of whether the 93MW is all residential but I assume that is a decent guess.
Solar In Arizona. A deep dive into solar in the New Yorker is not common and reading the first 1000 words made me think that it’s a good thing and it may still be. Some of the talking points come straight from the RPS opposition including things like solar only shines at some times and it is a cost increase to consumers. With solar plus storage already at sub natural gas prices in Arizona, the data in the talking points are misleading. The positive takeaway is that readers of the New Yorker are different than the readers of SolarWakeup and the broader audience is thinking about solar, I wish that it was broader than three interviewers though.
Is Capital The Need? An interesting question, does the industry need more capital in order to meet climate goals. Couple of thoughts. The question is the wrong premise, it should ask: More Capital Needs To Be Deployed To Meet Goals. There is a limitless amount of capital interested in projects that meet sustainability goals. Additionally, the commentary could increase the scope of the capital. If capital is available for projects and the pipeline of projects is limiting the progress, then we need capital that is willing to take different risks besides fixed contract off taker agreements at return hurdles that are in line with the pipeline. Lastly, more capital needs to be willing to take bigger bets on technology risks. This last point is in line with what I’ve written about the Bill Gates concept of solving climate change with breakthrough technologies.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 24th, 2018
Presented By Conti Solar. Conti Solar, a national EPC, O&M, and energy storage company. Our attention to detail, flawless execution and collaborative culture has enabled us to successfully develop and install over 500 MW of solar projects since our early initiatives in 2008. We leverage established partnerships with solar developers, IPPs, utilities, off-takers, suppliers and landowners to streamline project development, design, construction and operations; drive down project costs and create value across all project stakeholders. Majority-owned by Ares EIF with a minority position retained by the Conti Group, Conti Solar is well positioned with a diversified network of industry experts and the financial resources to be a trusted, long-term partner. Learn more at www.contisolar.com.
The Future Of Corporate Solar. On the day that Walmart announces another 23MW with SunPower, I am also thinking about the continued focus on serving corporate load from afar. Last week Google announced the work they are doing to match load with generation. Facebook is securing energy through special utility rate schedules. DG will always be the most interested and visible way solar is integrated but the density and offset will never be 100%. Expect more to come on entities that match load and generation in innovative ways.
Making Solar A Debate Topic. On Sunday night during the Florida gubernatorial debate, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum made solar a focal point about jobs and climate change. This comes n the moves that Tallahassee Electric built a solar farm with Florida developer, Origis Energy, the same time that Trump was announcing the departure from the Paris climate accords. This is a smart move politically given where consumers stand in their support of the issue and a good pivot from climate change to the popular issue appealing to both sides with jobs and consumer choice.
Venture Nonsense. The often forward thinking venture accelerator, Y Combinator, has posted its request for startups in the seldom considered carbon removal technologies. I respect the initiative but why not focus on an established market and show the returns that one could make in the solar industry for example. Why not highlight and plan to invest in renewable startups to pick up the void that the SunShot initiative leaves after their shift to hardware?
Brazil Solar Turn Around. 3 years ago investing in Brazil was a non-starter. That has now changed which is the gentle reminder that some markets are one election or impeachment away from investment grade.
ISO Storage Preview. Like ISO-NE, PJM and the NJ BPU are looking at energy storage programs that will start the market. ISOs will be looking to integrate energy storage across their markets and solar developers will look to see how to take advantage of it. The key question for regulators is what problem do they want to solve and for developers the question is do they have the right money. All these questions will be asked during SolarWakeup Live! on November 6th.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 23rd, 2018
Presented by Aten Solar. Your single source in adding value to your supply chain and procurement. Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs.
Solar Roofs Are Better. I came across this video on Twitter showing the damage at the Tyndall Air Force Base housing community. After the drone pans across the worst damage there is a row of homes that have solar installed. The surprising images show roofs completely removed on the non-solar portions while the shingles are virtually intact on the solar areas. Not reading too much into this except to say that when solar is installed properly into the rafters with the right rail spans, they will withstand tremendous winds even when installed right near the ocean.
Facebook Must Do Better. It is good for solar that Facebook is using more of it, in this case adding a 100MW solar farm to its data center in New Mexico. Through its power and influence, Facebook was able to convince PNM to build the solar farm and sell it the clean solar energy through a special deal approved by regulators. The real way to drive change would be to require the utility to make the same available to local homeowners and businesses that don’t have the buying power and regulatory influence. What’s the advantage of Facebook being solar powered when the folks posting on the platform are doing so with fossil fuels.
NJ Market Worries. More sentiments of worry coming from the market in New Jersey. With the BPU docket open to create a new SREC program and the SREC program coming to an end, the market participants want to make sure the transition happens smoothly to avoid a Massachusetts situation. The market is correct to worry because these legislative changes take time and often they take longer than expected. The ups and downs of the solar market rules are sometimes the biggest obstacle to our market and it is important to be educated on the process.
Almost Sold Out. SolarWakeup Live! is almost sold out. With the regulatory changes and potential challenges, everyone active in the market is looking to get the upper hand or at least know what the competition does. Our interviews with the BPU President, SEIA CEO and power market traders will make sure you are up to speed. Head to SolarWakeuplive.com and get your registration today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 22nd, 2018
Presented by PV Pros. PV Pros provides nationwide technical services for investors and asset managers. We manage your technical needs while you focus on the financial aspects of development, acquisition, and ownership. Our team of professionals offer technical due diligence, inspections and testing, subject matter experts for disputes, preventative maintenance, repairs, and monitoring across the United States.
Insider Access, PSC Importance. Arizona is going through a big fight around the 50% RPS ballot initiative. Surprising to me, but not to dinosaur thinking, APS (the Arizona utility) is strongly opposed to the proposition. What it has been doing, now documented by internal emails, is using the regulatory body (ACC) to push out their talking points. One former regulator called is “regulatory capture” but I call it the status quo. In States where the utility regulator is elected, the only party that cares to invest in those campaign is the utility the body has to regulate. If you want to be a regulator in Arizona, the easiest way to the office was to align yourself and make yourself available to the government affairs teams. This is dangerous and bad for consumers. As an aside, I do find APS’s position on the RPS to be corporate negligence. A rebuild of the grid and change of generation in 10 years offers in incredible opportunity to rate base investments and charges to all consumers while greening the grid.
Learning Lesson. Here is the counterpoint to the ‘regulatory capture’ above. You lose 100% of the battles you stay out of and regulators will care 0% of all the arguments you never make to them. Moreover, regulators will never know your issue if you don’t spend telling them the talking points. They will surely ignore you and often won’t respond, but you need to keep them reading your message. Much of this is based on my personal experience writing this newsletter. I may not always respond to your emails but I almost always read them or see the headline. Some PR agencies send me press releases with little result but some PR experts know the audience, tell me the message and attach the link to the article. But most of all, you’d be surprised at how many companies, startups and advocates never reach out at all.
Electric Transportation. I am fascinated by the traction that electric vehicles are getting, more specifically those vehicles in fleets. UPS and FedEx always jump to the top of the last mile list. Walmart and JB Hunt are the long distance challenge. Mass transit and school buses are the local routes. There will be hundreds of billions in transaction value and integration challenges but nonetheless this is really exciting to think about.
How Solar Bills Become Law. Part 2 of my discussion with Brad Klein of ELPC centers around how the Illinois solar policy came to life. Through the needs of the utility which wanted to get subsidies for ailing nuclear plants arised the opportunity for the solar and environmental advocacy groups to coalesce and make an ask. Get the details by listening to the unedited interview here and join us for more of this type of conversation in a few weeks in New Jersey.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 19th, 2018
Late newsletter today, thanks to the inflight wireless. Great to see so many of you last night!
Presented By Conti Solar. Conti Solar, a national EPC, O&M, and energy storage company. Our attention to detail, flawless execution and collaborative culture has enabled us to successfully develop and install over 500 MW of solar projects since our early initiatives in 2008. We leverage established partnerships with solar developers, IPPs, utilities, off-takers, suppliers and landowners to streamline project development, design, construction and operations; drive down project costs and create value across all project stakeholders. Majority-owned by Ares EIF with a minority position retained by the Conti Group, Conti Solar is well positioned with a diversified network of industry experts and the financial resources to be a trusted, long-term partner. Learn more at www.contisolar.com.
Recapping Illinois. Enjoy this episode of SolarWakeup Podcast with Brad Klein from ELPC, the environmental law and policy center. Brad and I spoke in Chicago about the policies that are starting to grow the Illinois solar market. ELPC and some solar representatives worked for years to advance energy policy in Illinois, one of the most political State capitols in the Country. This is a detailed discussion of what happened behind the scenes and how the policy became a bill. Check out the podcast here or find it by searching for SolarWakeup on your favorite podcast app.
Will Promises Made Be Kept. Part of how the Illinois solar policy was passed sits in the promises that were made during the legislative process. Many times, policy relies on promises from the industry to individual legislators instead of writing more constraint into the language of the bill. That is definitely true in Illinois and solar promised to include union labor and low income families/job seekers in the market. If this does not happen for the benefit of shortterm gain, expect pushback and missing allies next time the policy needs to be updated.
New Jersey Concerns. Here is a flashback to MA policy implementation for you and highlighting why SolarWakeup Live! is a crucial event for you to attend. NJ opened the docket for the SREC replacement program this week and people are concerned. Their primary concern today is that there is likely to be a gap of time where the market certainty is gone while a new program is put in place, just like we saw with SMART in 2018. Losing a year in a market this important hurts solar companies in a really big way and will cause layoffs and closures. If you attended SolarWakeup Live! in Boston last year, you would have heard the information from a State Senator and the Director of the SMART program. Both were hesitant about where solar could go in 2018, and attendees told me in person afterwards that they would take things with great caution. In Jersey City, expect my conversations with folks in the know and the NJ BPU President to cover how the process will play out. You may now get the information about the result at the show but you will be educated about the process and the timing. And being right at the wrong time is bad in solar.
Lowering Rooftop Solar Costs. This is your reminder that rooftop solar can still lower costs in a big way starting with getting the cost of capital closer to that of mortgages. Solar is still 10% or more higher than the mortgage on your home when you take a solar loan. Second, the permit costs and speed represent close to $1/watt in cost that should be on track to getting absorbed by better regulatory policies. Some smart folks are working on it but we need more people to raise their hands to implement this.
Vote Solar DC. Last night, 150+ solar pros got together in DC to celebrate the amazing year that Vote Solar had. Imagine if this advocacy organization led by the amazing Adam Browning had another $10 or $100million in the bank. Our market would skyrocket. If you know someone that supports solar and wants to support this great cause financially in a big way, this is the way to do it. Have a great weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 18th, 2018
Presented by Aten Solar. Your single source in adding value to your supply chain and procurement. Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs.
Saudi Energy Story. Most speakers at the upcoming Saudi Future Investment Initiative conference have pulled out due to the disappearance of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Two speakers have notably not pulled out and they both have an energy connection including solar. EDF CEO, Jean-Bernard Levy, and Siemens CEO, Joe Kaeser, have not withdrawn from the event according to Axios/CNN. EDF has significant presence in the US solar market and while this is far upstream from the local business unit, this could pose questions for the local teams that they will have no good way of answering.
Who Stopped Coal. No question that coal has declined over the past few years and the war on coal waged by Obama is the political talking point. At the same time, Trump appears to be taking credit for the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions while also looking to bring back coal. The reality is neither Obama or Trump had anything to do with coal. Solar may also not have had much to do with it. Fracked natural gas dropped the price of the commodity 10 years ago and the replacement of coal plants expanded the gas portfolio in a massive way.
Lessons Learned, No Comparison. JEA, the Jacksonville utility that is often rumored to be considering an acquisition by NextEra, is signing new solar agreements. Part of the reporting appears to show a learning lesson from the utility operator that it will not put itself at risk as it did with the Vogtle nuclear plant. First, I doubt that JEA is coming out of pocket for the solar farms. Second, I am sure that the utility is only obligated to purchase the energy produced by the plant. I.e. it looks like every other PPA signed in the US by a utility. This is just a PR stunt to put solar on the same playing field with the ratepayer waste that is Vogtle.
DTE Playing Old School. DTE Energy filed a change to the net metering to remove the retail rate credit and exchange it for the wholesale rate. That’s the 2012 net metering fight and I’m surprised that DTE is playing that game 3 weeks before a Gubernatorial election that is pretty close. I hope that the folks at DTE realize the error in their strategy and come to the conclusion that net metering is not a threat and it helps defray millions in costs saving consumers plenty of rate increases.
DC. Vote Solar. Tonight. See you there! Raising a glass for a great cause.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 17th, 2018
Presented by PV Pros. PV Pros provides nationwide technical services for investors and asset managers. We manage your technical needs while you focus on the financial aspects of development, acquisition, and ownership. Our team of professionals offer technical due diligence, inspections and testing, subject matter experts for disputes, preventative maintenance, repairs, and monitoring across the United States.
Clean Energy Voter’s Guide. Two takeaways from the AEE guide to clean energy policies in the upcoming election. The first, obvious and sad is that the republican party candidates still feel like clean energy is bad politics for their donors. Two, it does appear that access to renewable energy is an issue that both sides are agreeing on. Especially in Florida, this is a topic that I first discovered in my interview with State Sentator Jeff Brandes.
States Matter. In case it isn’t obvious, State policy is disproportionally important when it comes to energy policy due to the State by State regulatory oversight. The politics of this get interesting because energy and climate change has become an issue in Congressional races even though those representatives don’t have much influence at the State. That’s why we, as a solar industry, need to do more to solarize the education of the electoral funnel. A county commissioner should know that voting solar is good for the race for State House and the votes in the House are good for the Senate and so forth. The opposite is also true, voting against solar should feel a campaign to stop the politician from moving up the ranks.
Bailing Out On Bail Out. It seems that the Trump administration is bailing out on the nuclear and coal bailout. Frank has the complete story but the note from PJM that coal and nuclear generation could shut down without issue must have played a role in the decision. It’s a good decision.
Rubio Digs Deeper. More on the interview from Sunday, Senator Rubio, whom I first met when he was the Speaker of the Florida House, said that moving to “all solar panels and did all that stuff, which is not realistic.” The message now is that climate change is too big to deal with and the assumption is that it would cost too much money and destroy the economy. Those are the talking points we need to educate the party with.
Pass On Gas. Vote Solar’s Adam Browning highlights the technical case for a future without natural gas in order to keep the planet from warming too much. This tweet storm courtesy of Jonathan Gaventa of E3G.
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