This is your SolarWakeup for February 1st, 2017

The links are live. Let’s try this out. Starting today, until further notice, the emails will have the links right in the email. That means you don’t have to go to the website to route yourself to the article you find interesting. That means that I am hurting the one metric that would allow me to monetize which is web clicks but I am doing it to improve your experience. What can you do for me? Help me get more subscribers! Tell your friends and make your employees subscribe.
Watch this space! Over 110 actions against solar net metering were taken up by utilities across the US in 2015 and 2016. The losses for solar could be counted on one hand. While for some reason I am in the minority in this thinking, I am convinced that it is because the industry played politics. And it wasn’t SEIA or the State Chapters. It was the controversial funding of non-profits with grey money, the tactics of TASC and the audacity of small business owners picketing the commissions to save their companies. I sincerely hope that we are not descending into the desire to play policy instead of politics but I think I am wrong. Just look at where we are in Arizona and the headline in Maine from yesterday. Someone please tell me I am wrong.
Chasing returns in known knowns. Here is what we know. University endowments had a terrible year, with 805 colleges average a return of negative 1.9%. If public disclosures show us those kinds of returns, I bet the private funds and pension funds didn’t fare much better. With solar returns well above 5% unlevered, you KNOW that you can get some money put to work with nice profits. Always the chicken and the egg because it’s not that easy to put $5billion to work in our industry but they can always send it my way and I’ll point them in the right direction J.
More SunShot love. I will keep praising SunShot because they’ve done great work and continue to with another $30million announcement yesterday. What Minh Le is bringing up is totally valid, there is not political reason to get rid of SunShot but there is a corporate reason, the Kochs just don’t like innovation that threatens them. Is it a big enough fish for the GOP to cut? Yes. Is it a big enough fight for the Dems in the Senate to force it to be funded? 50/50.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 31st, 2017

Myron Ebell Speaks. The environment hating, former EPA transition head, Myron Ebell spoke to reporters in London yesterday. Not that energy is at the top of mind in the White House right now, but Ebell confirmed that the administration will seek to withdraw from the Paris deal. Some reports say that a member of the agreement has to give a 4 year notice prior to doing so.
Love solar in 49 and a half States. This is the best way to change a corporations’ views. It is no secret that the regulated subsidiary of NextEra, FP&L, has been rather anti-solar and even supporting an anti-solar amendment in November to the tune of millions. But the corporate has been going gangbusters with wind&solar. Many of you count NEE as a client and often walk a fine line on this topic.
I’ve seen this line. I haven’t been in many module assembly factories but during the early craze of the Ontario FIT, I had the chance to visit Celestica. Not for the assembly line but because Celestica was also assembling Advanced Energy’s inverters so they could be compliant with Made in Ontario rules. It seems like the requirements and demand in Ontario have made this work no longer financially viable so Celestica will get out of the business. End of a chapter when it comes to Ontario solar, but mostly because the rules were rather silly to begin with.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 30th, 2017

Moving On! As you all know, I have spent the last two years working at Conergy. I have thoroughly enjoyed the work, its challenges and leading the Americas team and now it is time for new opportunities. Late last year I left Conergy and took some much needed time off. I remain available to you all at my SolarWakeup email address and look forward to staying in touch with you.
It’s all clickbait. I get the obsession. Writers have editors that have business owners. The ad folks are just focusing on the metrics of sessions and clicks to drive up revenues. No doubt that a crazy headline can drive you to want to click and read something. It’s frustrating for me because I make sure to spend the time to give you articles that actually have relevance but I fail you sometimes. To date I have never had ads on SolarWakeup so my obsession with clicks is based on wanting to get bigger and better. Trust your article flow, and clickbait wont impact you.
Sigh. Probably the best tweet to date, Elon Musk wrote the single word. As Bryan and I discussed, legitimizing crazy stuff and getting caught in the messaging will be bad for your ability to cause change. Also things slow down after the initial whirlwind (typically) mostly because the bureaucracy is meant to move slow.
FERC gets a chair. LaFleur will be the interim chair of FERC until more members are selected and approved by the Senate. PV-Magazine has it that Senate Majority Leader’s Energy Advisor could get the nod as the next Chair. Keep your eye out on PURPA as the commission convenes.

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Yann

These are the top 10 most read solar articles by your peers this week!

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 27th, 2017

Elon Goes to Washington. Elon was seen in the White House this week with some decent seating given the other CEOs around the table. While clean energy and electric cars aren’t aligned with the Trump White House, making cars, batteries and solar panels in the US surely is. Working on aging infrastructure also aligns with the interests the administration has. Elon also came out and supported Rex Tillerson for State this week in a tweet to reporter Dana Hull. Tillerson had previously supported a carbon tax and during his nomination hearings was supportive of solving climate change through engineering, a favorite of Musk.
EU goes anti tariffs. Wow! Sometimes voting politicians push back against staff and this time the EU members have. They voted against the proposed two year extension of the tariffs on Chinese modules. Now staff will have to go back and figure out an alternative plan. Led by the UK delegation, which makes sense because they just had a massive investment into solar that could not be cut tremendously if modules were allowed to enter the markets without duties or tariffs.
Tough to be a supplier. As with the global market data, suppliers also have the issue of contracting financials in an expanding market. With costs coming down rapidly, manufacturers have to figure out a way to cut their spending because revenues are dropping without margins going up. Several markets in the US are now well below $1/watt installed and a ton of markets globally are well into the $0.80’s. That doesn’t leave a room for anyone to make money but does bode well for the markets that are seeing solar at 4 and 5 cents per kWh. Keep your eyes on the next India auction as those prices should get rather crazy.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 26th, 2017

I love Sunshot. I’ve been a cheerleader of the DOE and this program for quite some time. When it was established in 2011, getting to an EPC providing a system at less than $1/watt by 2020 seemed ridiculous. I used to think that modules couldn’t get to under $1/watt and few others did either. I congratulate the team at Sunshot for helping get some of the early money into innovative business models and companies that otherwise would have had a hard time getting that money in the private sector. The private sector has followed up with its own capital over 30x, which is indicative on its own.
Buffett loves solar. Apple does a really good job of finding the most market sensitive participant in its purchasing. In NV that is NV Energy, clearly looking to add more central solar power to their portfolio and show the PUC that they really are pro-solar. With Apple’s impeccable credit score and the NV sunshine, I would foreshadow the PPA rate coming out in the net metering debate. Apples and oranges but the news headlines will be there.
Say it again. The States are going to have to make up relaxed Federal regulations. While some would see a difficult path ahead, which I can agree with, but I see a potential avenue. In States with IOUs, the ratebase is a bargaining chip where policy can get passed. Capital markets won’t be moved by temporary policy. A coal power plant needs a 30+ year life cycle for investment and no reasonable money is going to assume no cost of carbon or policy for pollution in that model.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 25th, 2017

Stop and Freeze, the Trump Shuffle. Yesterday was energy day in the White House. The President showed his true colors (right after calling himself an environmentalist, which he’s not) by freezing grants for research and other activities. The administration was so proud of that they also issued a gag order on the staff. They were prohibited from talking to the press or social media about it.
Pipelining the Oil industry’s pockets. Promptly at 11am this morning, the President executive ordered all involved to expedite the approval of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines. This is reflective of an administration that isn’t caring much about the numbers or jobs that come with the sector. With solar having more jobs and more growth than any of the projects he is pushing through, solar isn’t getting much respect at 1600 Penn.
What’s the argument? I don’t really think data, facts, and public perception is going to move the needle much. Legislative process and political pain are the medicine for this cold. If legislators want to pass something, make solar the bargaining chip to get something through. If they can get something through, make their homecoming town halls miserable politically.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 24th, 2017

The Coal Mine. If it isn’t news, I missed it originally, but I am not surprised. Being small in the solar lease business is like being in no-man’s land. Your overhead will kill you before you ever dream about having a portfolio big enough to trade down to cheaper cost of capital. One Roof seems like it’s about done, moving out of its HQ and closing the doors perhaps. Rumor on the Linkedin boards also talked about some layoffs at Sungevity which is unfortunate after the canceled reverse merger.
Policy versus Politics. As I mentioned during the Episode 3 of the EnergyWakeup podcast, I am becoming concerned about the level of political engagement and level of rage in the fight to save net metering. TASC is seeking the ACC to revisit the end of net metering in Arizona based on legal non-compliance. That’s a policy argument about process, it would be much better to have a thousand people in front of the ACC.
The end is in sight. Thankfully, Terraform and Terraform Global have signed an MOU to negotiate exclusively to be acquired by Brookfield. There is still a bit to go, target closing of April 1^st, but we’ll take the progress nonetheless.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 23rd, 2017

Another EnergyWakeup, and it’s good. On her first day on the job as SEIA CEO, I interview Abby Hopper who joins the solar industry after 2 years in the Federal Government. Bryan and I cover a ton of material about the nomination hearings, the Trump Administrations first day in office (a deleted webpage) and what NV Energy is really up to in Nevada. Don’t miss this episode, sponsored by Conductive Capital.
America’s Oil, Gas and Coal First Policy. The Koch brothers have put their official energy policy up on the website, the White House website. Promptly at noon on inauguration day, as is typical, on admins pages come down and the new ones go up. In a drastic comparison, climate change and renewables were deleted and America First Energy Policy is the top issue on the whitehouse.gov site now. It doesn’t mention climate change or renewables but does give a shoutout to clean coal. In case you are wondering who is in charge of energy policy, read this 4^th grade level policy document.
DG Costs Nothing! The Berkeley National Lab has come out with an extensive study on the cost or benefit of distributed solar at current and 10% penetration rates. The results are negligible with any costs or benefits being less than a penny per kWh and could go in either direction. However, the amount of solar has a large impact on the future levels of utility investments which in every circumstance are a cost to the consumer. But on the other hand more investments mean higher returns for shareholders. Now do you understand why there is an inherent conflict between shareholders and ratepayers?
Rick Perry’s Heritage. DC’s worst kept secret is that Committee chairs and Agency Secretaries appreciate anything that maintains or increases their budget oversight. Why? Because a higher budget means more lobbying which means more work after public service. Rick Perry was strongly supporting the Offices of Science, National Labs and other work at DOE while the Trump team was releasing the Jim DeMint, Heritage Foundation’s blueprint on how to gut the Federal Budget.

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Yann

EnergyWakeup – Episode 3 – Interview with SEIA President, Abby Hopper, and Bryan explains what NV Energy is really doing