This is your SolarWakeup for January 27th, 2020
The Solar Tech Boom. I met the CEO of Sofdesk, Lennie Moreno, several years ago and you knew right away that he’s not going to let customers slip away. Tucked away in a nondescript Montreal office building, Lennie replicated a tech loft that built a popular software which may be the biggest exit for tech in solar thus far. It likely isn’t the biggest by dollar amount but it’s the type of software that can be built without expensive hardware solutions added on and with an exit on record, it will give VCs a liquidity event to seek to replicate. Sofdesk’s sale also brings Kelcy Pegler Jr back into the news, as he stood as the company’s Executive Chairman and investor for the past few years. While the former NRG Home Solar CEO is usually flying under the radar, seeking to remain out of the spotlight, this is the second major exit for the solar pro. The first exit came in 2014 when NRG’s David Crane acquired Kelcy’s Roof Diagnostics Solar, one of the largest residential solar installers in the Country at the time. When asked to comment via email, Kelcy responded with “Stay Tuned”
All About The Customer. In solar, there are many customers and for manufacturers it means making multiple people happy. If you make anything, you need to know how much to make, where to send it and which SKUs will be needed. Enphase has had trouble with making sure it’s rising product demand is met by the needed supply but with a major acquisition, they are about to get a lot smarter without upsetting the ecosystem. Enphase has acquired Sofdesk, the company behind the popular solar design software you know as Solargraf. Why would Enphase buy a design software with hundreds of installer customers? It’s not only the data but also the technology that will enable a more seamless integration of Enphase in design, proposals, permitting docs and more. But it also tells the company when a proposal goes out, to what city/state, and which sized module is proposed alongside the inverter. Integrated at scale, Enphase will be in a position to fulfill demand more efficiently. Will it include an order now button for installers? Who knows, but it could be the type of margin expansion that Enphase management seeks to grow every day.
The Full Wall Street. Forget ESG at this point, Wall Street is all in on the energy transition and climatization of businesses. See below for actual examples responding to this. In his annual shareholder letter, Larry Fink from BlackRock, is going further than he has in the past. He and through him, BlackRock’s 7.8 trillion AUM, is calling for full corporate climate disclosures and the business purpose beyond profit. It is also asking for the corporate’s plan on how they would be compatible in a net-zero economy.
The Utility Transition. I have officially been in solar long enough to be lectured to by a nuclear engineer turned CEO that nuclear energy is the future of the energy transition and then have the same person make the point that renewables are the lifeblood of that business and the energy transition to the extent that they have the entire utility lobby endorsing a 100% clean energy future. NextEra happens to be my utility and also the utility that may bring the distinction between solar and the utility business model to the most fundamental point, who owns the asset. For 15 years, NextEra has never openly seemed anti-renewable, even behind closed doors the utility was doing pilots and negotiating paths to building more solar. The sticking point was always ownership, which I grant you is not a small one especially when you care about competition, consumers and overall intellectual honesty. While NextEra announced that they target 30GW of renewables to be added on their balance sheet in the next 3 years, it is the announcement from EEI’s Tom Kuhn, which I credit to NextEra’s influence, that is most impressing today. “We are joining the growing call for a 100% clean energy future.”
Energy Wednesday. Governor turned Secretary of Energy nominee, Jennifer Granholm is on the hill today for her nomination hearing. Expectations are that the White House is also rolling out more executive action on climate. Of note in the personnel world, Energy Storage Association’s CEO Kelly Speakes-Backman has been appointed as the Principal Deputy Assistant Energy Secretary at DOE’s EERE and Energy Innovation’s Sonia Aggarwal is joining the White House as a senior advisor for climate policy and innovation.
A Supply Chain Mess. Solar is growing everywhere and the US market continues to be underestimated. With our path to 1million solar homes installed in a few years, Australia at over 25% penetration, suppliers are having a hard time keeping up with demand. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group was meant to not only lower costs but also increase access by consolidating demand amongst its members. We’re doing that now, reducing lead times and saving money. Get in touch with us through our portal or hit reply to this email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 26th, 2020
It’s Deal Week. Lots of transactions yesterday and I think we are just getting started.
Shoals. The IPO is well oversubscribed and they have upsized their offering from 50 to 70million shares and increased their price range. It’s now expected that SHLS will raise/sell over $1.4billion in shares. Not bad for a $150million revenue company.
Sunlight Financial. If you’ve dialed into Phil Shen’s market updates that I participate in, you’ve seen Sunlight’s CEO on those calls. Unable to attend the past 2 times, you now know why. Sunlight is acquired by an Apollo backed SPAC and will be going public as well.
First Solar. What once saved the company is now being sold. First Solar is selling its development business to Leeward and will be focusing solely on manufacturing.
A Supply Chain Mess. Solar is growing everywhere and the US market continues to be underestimated. With our path to 1million solar homes installed in a few years, Australia at over 25% penetration, suppliers are having a hard time keeping up with demand. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group was meant to not only lower costs but also increase access by consolidating demand amongst its members. We’re doing that now, reducing lead times and saving money. Get in touch with us through our portal or hit reply to this email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 25th, 2020
A Fed Response. Looking at the policy landscape, especially on solar and renewables, I wonder how close folks have looked at what ESG first monetary policy would look like. Solar on a roof can be a $1,200 per year stimulus for those living in the house or similar benefits for community solar customers. All we’d have to figure out how to lower the cost of money to the point that the capex of the investment is offset by the cost of staying with the status quo.
Infrastructure Week. Joe Manchin, with a bright spotlight on him at the 50th Senator, is calling for a $4 trillion infrastructure bill. He’s not ready to jump into renewables head first but he also knows that infrastructure spending won’t be building new coal plants, he just can’t say it out loud.
Fixing RTOs. There is no doubt that the last four years of attempted Federal takeover of state and regional energy policy has caused problem. Starting with the MOPR, RTOs and ISOs have to come back to the starting block and then implement state by state energy standards and goals. Moreover, they are looking at an energy demand that has been turned on its head and now is very residential. And then you add the electrification of transportation as well as the money losing power plants that are closing and you realize that the energy markets have to figure out how to price signal to developers the value of DERs and other distribution level grid investments. This is an important time to be a regulator.
Solar For All. With everything that we are talking about, in the market and in policy rooms, we have to ensure that the access to solar and solar generated electricity isn’t just for those that own a single family residence with southern exposure. Renters, low income families, and others without access to onsite solar must have reasonable alternatives with similar benefits. Low income families spend a giant percentage of their income on utilities and it would be a bad signal by our industry and supporters to forget that.
A Supply Chain Mess. Solar is growing everywhere and the US market continues to be underestimated. With our path to 1million solar homes installed in a few years, Australia at over 25% penetration, suppliers are having a hard time keeping up with demand. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group was meant to not only lower costs but also increase access by consolidating demand amongst its members. We’re doing that now, reducing lead times and saving money. Get in touch with us through our portal or hit reply to this email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 22nd, 2020
Star Spangled Weekend. Yes, The Dead’s Bob Weir played at the Clean Energy for America Ball on Wednesday night but it was solar’s own, Dan Shugar, that played the intro Anthem. It was like having the Battle of the Bands back for a moment.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 21st, 2020
A Poet, A Poem, Capture America. “For while we have our eyes on the future, history has its eyes on us, This is the era of just redemption” That comes from the Inaugural Poet, Amanda Gorman. A lyrical rockstar who stole the show, just so you know. See it here.
An Oath And A Plan. President Biden took the stage and the oath before walking to the White House and quickly got to work. Look for a long set of climate-related, solar positive, actions coming from the oval office. You can see his announcements on Twitter.
The Climate Team. During the Inaugural Ball last night, Governor Granholm and Administrator McCarthy who are nominated for Secretary of Energy and Domestic Climate Coordinator respectively spoke to the large crowd of cleantech pros. They, along with dozens of others, will forge the arteries across the vast Federal government to ensure that climate positive actions are pulsing throughout the body of politics. Personnel is a policy and the personnel is in place and growing. One vote multiplied 80 million times brings resurrection to a future with the hope that we can nurture nature and leave a planet for our children that is in better shape than the one we’ve inherited.
Au Revoir Means Coming Back. Biden initiated the return to the Paris Climate Accords because when we left the global agreement it was not goodbye.
What Does It All Mean? I’ll be discussing this in a live webinar at 11am eastern this morning. The discussion is hosted by Roth Capital. Words you will hear on the call include, policy, supply chain, loan originations and SPACs. Maybe a word or two about President Biden.
A New FERC. The President’s party gets the majority of the seats on FERC, and yesterday Chair Danly chaired his last meeting.
Big Markets. BNEF is forecasting 192GW of solar in 2021, a trillion dollar market in the making.
California NEM 3.0. CALSSA is hosting a webinar to its members about the net metering 3.0 rule making and regulator proceedings. You can register for that here. If you’re not a member and would like to be, as the board member of CALSSA, I welcome your inquiry. If you’re not a member but operate in California, you can absolve your oversight by joining to ensure NEM 3.0 is solar friendly.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 20th, 2020
A New Day. In 5 hours, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be sworn in as President and Vice President. With the Georgia Secretary of State certifying the election yesterday, Warnock and Ossoff will also be sworn in today. While DC looks and feels different today, not just because of the pandemic and threat of insurrection but also because it’s getting back to a normal DC. A normal DC isn’t normal by any stretch of the imagination but it’s normal in the way that deals are made and bills are passed with everyone getting something. I’ve often said that the founders admired the mediocrity of the center where no-one gets everything and everyone gets something. Celebrate today and tomorrow get back to work because politics isn’t a spectator sport.
Have A Ball. Tonight you can join me and Billie Eilish at the Clean Energy for Biden Inauguration Ball. Tickets are available until 2pm Eastern. You can learn more and buy tickets here.
#Ride4Solar. No better way to start today than taking a ride for solar with your friends on the Peloton. Join us at 8am on the live ride with Cody Rigsby and invite your friends to join us. West coasters can join the ride later in the day, the highest output riders get to write a paragraph on SolarWakeup one day.
Shoals Road Show. On New Year’s Eve, Shoals filed for their IPO and now is managing their roadshow getting investors excited for the upcoming transparency and liquidity in the market. If at the end of the month their IPO goes well, and I expect that it will to the tune of a potential market cap over $1b, there is going to be a run on the markets including by those that are not ready for it.
Who’s Next? Most executives haven’t looked into it and realized that Shoals is only $150million in revenue with market margins. In many ways this is a trade that comps with Array Technologies as well as Enphase and Solaredge which will drive Shoals stock price higher. There are other solar companies in this range of revenue and margin and they are going to ask themselves how they can exit. First, you need to talk to the right people. Second, Shoals as well as Array before it, brought in a majority investor in Oaktree which gave the company years of professionalism and decades of relationships on wall street. There is no fast and easy path to what they’re doing but it can be done. Happy to chat with you if this is talking to you. Lastly and most importantly, I would be shocked if activist investors don’t get louder and more aggressive with Flex in the effort to spin out Nextracker. This is the most withheld value in solar public companies today.
The Rivian Raise. I don’t see Rivian as a Tesla competitor, in many ways it’s a sibling that also started a venture to compete with the status quo that is simply moving too slow. The Rivian SUV and pickup are great looking vehicles that will start shipping later this year. With another $2.6billion on the balance sheet, it looks like a good year for them as well.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 19th, 2020
The Big Tent. Developing solar has a big tent and needs to be expanded. Solar definitely has a NIMBY aspect, local communities when they are not involved in the process tend to fight against the idea. Joe Biden said this about transmission during the campaign season. We also need to be aware of the different communities that should be consulted and involved including Native American tribes. By including more groups we will find more supporters.
Climate Through Energy. Before he is sworn in, Biden is already saying that the Keystone XL permit will be canceled. If you remember, this was one of the first issues Trump took on when he came into office. This is not just an environmental statement but also a finality to the type of fuel we will need as a Country for the future. Transportation will be electric, bringing down dirty oil does not have a longterm economic certainty. The overlap between environmental impact and energy will be far and wide, providing economic opportunity for innovators and market participants like many of us.
VPP En Masse. A new player is getting a VPP contract in Hawaii. Swell energy recently raised $450million in capital from Ares and Aligned. The reality is that while VPPs are largely focused on platform owned projects will be at the benefit of individual homeowners. Storage does not need to be owned by 3rd parties for homeowners to benefit from putting their distributed resource into an aggregation, something that large players aren’t saying out loud because they are hoping for the sales pitch against individual ownership to continue.
Correction. Yesterday I said that Trump extended the 201 tariffs for modules, which was an error. The 201 tariffs for solar have been initiated for review to determine the extension by Trump but not actually extended. Apologies for the mistaken information.
Inauguration Week. On Wednesday, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. While solar has always soared above the partisan politics of DC or States, there is an undeniable alignment between the solar industry’s and Biden administration’s goals. The Clean Energy for Biden team is hosting an inaugural ball, taking shape in a different format, that you can attend from the comfort of your home. Some of the industry’s biggest supporters and names will be in attendance, will you join? You can learn more and buy tickets here.
Calling All Peloton Riders. Like many of you stuck in quarantine, unable to get to the gym, I joined the cult of Peloton. I have been watching and riding with some friends and realized that while we are apart, this brings us together in camaraderie and competition. You may have also seen that SEIA’s CEO, Abby Hopper, is an avid Pelotoner so we figured it’s time to #Ride4Solar. Add the hashtag to your profile to network with other solar pros, other cleantechers are welcome of course. Tomorrow, we’re taking the 8am Cody Rigsby live class if you want to join live or take it later in the day. Just another way to be together! #Ride4Solar
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 18th, 2020
Inauguration Week. On Wednesday, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. While solar has always soared above the partisan politics of DC or States, there is an undeniable alignment between the solar industry’s and Biden administration’s goals. The Clean Energy for Biden team is hosting an inaugural ball, taking shape in a different format, that you can attend from the comfort of your home. Some of the industry’s biggest supporters and names will be in attendance, will you join? You can learn more and buy tickets here.
Calling All Peloton Riders. Like many of you stuck in quarantine, unable to get to the gym, I joined the cult of Peloton. I have been watching and riding with some friends and realized that while we are apart, this brings us together in camaraderie and competition. You may have also seen that SEIA’s CEO, Abby Hopper, is an avid Pelotoner so we figured it’s time to #Ride4Solar. Add the hashtag to your profile to network with other solar pros, other cleantechers are welcome of course. On Wednesday, we’re taking the 8am Cody Rigsby live class if you want to join live or take it later in the day. Just another way to be together! #Ride4Solar
Tariffs And Manufacturing. Last week Trump extended the 201 tariffs for both washers and solar panels. This is a priority issue for SEIA as the Biden administration moves into the White House. It’s a tricky issue because everyone wants domestic manufacturing and some domestic manufacturing moved to the US with the 201 tariffs protecting a price war. In some instances this actually creates an internal conflict because some manufacturers are lobbying for the 201 tariffs to remain in effect and even have the ability to control the older duties as well. Surely there is a better way to incentivize domestic manufacturing without doubling the cost of solar panels for consumers. I also would like to get a better understanding of how many people, actual people, are working inside these factories.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 15th, 2020
Welcome To The Rundown. McKinsey, a consultant to many status quo corporates, is reporting that renewables will be cheaper than fossil fuels by 2030 with green hydrogen as a big game changer for the energy transition. If you’re looking at peak usage, coal has already passed, oil will be max in 2029 and fracked methane in 2037. I’m not underestimating the importance of this report given the source and which board rooms McKinsey is in around the world.
Year Of Clean. EIA says that wind and solar will make up the majority of capacity addition in 2021, gas only participating at 16% of total capacity.
EVs And Regulators. Regulators and politicians are missing a major variable in the future of electricity. Electrification of transportation isn’t going to be limited to new Tesla owners, quite the opposite if you see General Motors putting a plug into their logo. EVs are going to be in every driveway and fleet with a major change in how much, when and where electricity is needed to fuel this sector. I will not be surprised if Governors all of a sudden call for emergency action by grid operators to ensure resilient access to energy because they failed to plan for this actuality.
The Climate Office. Biden is unveiling his climate office, though I am still waiting to see some of the names from solar I was hoping for.
Big Deal? Quietly, Tesla has launched their own inverter. A 3.8kW and 7.6kW string that looks like a miniature power wall. Have you used one?
Have A Great Weekend!
Market Update Continues. Join me and Phil Shen from Roth Capital next week with our usual panel of industry insiders as we talk about the solar market, now #11 in our series. The hourlong conversation and Q&A will dive into the news of right now and we’re never short of opinions or predictions. Register for the online call and I definitely recommend signing up for Phil’s solar newsletter.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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This is your SolarWakeup for January 14th, 2020
Wakeup Scoop. Tigo Energy, the MLPE manufacturer, has raised a new $20million from UK based Energy Growth Momentum. This is the first solar related investment for the company based on its website’s portfolio. Tigo is well known for the module level power shutoff that powered many of the module OEM smart modules and now has a plug and play option for installers/EPCs the gives them the flexibility to choose safety/monitoring/optimization or a combination. In 2020 the company also bought out previous investor, SMA, which opens the company up to being a more vendor neutral solution. The company isn’t releasing revenue or valuation but was advised by Needham in the transaction. The UK angle is interesting given the strong safety and residential focus in Europe without the SEDG/ENPH duopoly that is well known in the US, Tigo told SolarWakeup that revenue in the US and Europe markets are similar.
Biden’s Central Theme. In one of his first official interviews after being named Director of the National Economic Council, Brian Deese told Reuters that climate is going to be a central theme throughout the policies enacted by the Biden administration. This means that everything that is prioritized will be measured and improved to help fight climate change. Biden appears to be going well beyond rejoining Paris, but also understanding how trade, commerce, tax rules and regulations impact the markets that enable technology and behavior to improve our air and water quality. With executive powers held strong by the resident in the White House, this kind of thinking may be a major upside catalyst for the market we play in.
More Jobs Needed. While the pandemic didn’t crush the industry it definitely caused a large number of our professionals to have their job disrupted. 12% of the prepandemic workforce is still unemployed. Based on the SolarWakeup supporters at EnergeiaWorks and Suntuity, I assure you that looking for jobs in solar has never been better but continuing our market growth will ensure that the jobs reach everywhere in America as well. After the pandemic, I will be taking SolarWakeup on the road into the parts of the Country that may have resisted and fought against solar but now understand that an energy transition is taking place. How is solar received in rural Kentucky? Suburban Arkansas? That’s what I want to find out.
C&I Focus Continues. Another day and another C&I highlight by our friends at Madison Energy Investments. This team may have one of the biggest track records in the space so if this market is of interest to you, read this.
Market Update Continues. Join me and Phil Shen from Roth Capital next week with our usual panel of industry insiders as we talk about the solar market, now #11 in our series. The hourlong conversation and Q&A will dive into the news of right now and we’re never short of opinions or predictions. Register for the online call and I definitely recommend signing up for Phil’s solar newsletter.
SunShot (SETO) Money Deadline. It will always be SunShot to me but the Solar Energy Technology Office at DOE is open for a $45million funding round.Find out more here
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann