This is your SolarWakeup for January 21st, 2020
A Poet, A Poem, Capture America. “For while we have our eyes on the future, history has its eyes on us, This is the era of just redemption” That comes from the Inaugural Poet, Amanda Gorman. A lyrical rockstar who stole the show, just so you know. See it here.
An Oath And A Plan. President Biden took the stage and the oath before walking to the White House and quickly got to work. Look for a long set of climate-related, solar positive, actions coming from the oval office. You can see his announcements on Twitter.
The Climate Team. During the Inaugural Ball last night, Governor Granholm and Administrator McCarthy who are nominated for Secretary of Energy and Domestic Climate Coordinator respectively spoke to the large crowd of cleantech pros. They, along with dozens of others, will forge the arteries across the vast Federal government to ensure that climate positive actions are pulsing throughout the body of politics. Personnel is a policy and the personnel is in place and growing. One vote multiplied 80 million times brings resurrection to a future with the hope that we can nurture nature and leave a planet for our children that is in better shape than the one we’ve inherited.
Au Revoir Means Coming Back. Biden initiated the return to the Paris Climate Accords because when we left the global agreement it was not goodbye.
What Does It All Mean? I’ll be discussing this in a live webinar at 11am eastern this morning. The discussion is hosted by Roth Capital. Words you will hear on the call include, policy, supply chain, loan originations and SPACs. Maybe a word or two about President Biden.
A New FERC. The President’s party gets the majority of the seats on FERC, and yesterday Chair Danly chaired his last meeting.
Big Markets. BNEF is forecasting 192GW of solar in 2021, a trillion dollar market in the making.
California NEM 3.0. CALSSA is hosting a webinar to its members about the net metering 3.0 rule making and regulator proceedings. You can register for that here. If you’re not a member and would like to be, as the board member of CALSSA, I welcome your inquiry. If you’re not a member but operate in California, you can absolve your oversight by joining to ensure NEM 3.0 is solar friendly.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 20th, 2020
A New Day. In 5 hours, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be sworn in as President and Vice President. With the Georgia Secretary of State certifying the election yesterday, Warnock and Ossoff will also be sworn in today. While DC looks and feels different today, not just because of the pandemic and threat of insurrection but also because it’s getting back to a normal DC. A normal DC isn’t normal by any stretch of the imagination but it’s normal in the way that deals are made and bills are passed with everyone getting something. I’ve often said that the founders admired the mediocrity of the center where no-one gets everything and everyone gets something. Celebrate today and tomorrow get back to work because politics isn’t a spectator sport.
Have A Ball. Tonight you can join me and Billie Eilish at the Clean Energy for Biden Inauguration Ball. Tickets are available until 2pm Eastern. You can learn more and buy tickets here.
#Ride4Solar. No better way to start today than taking a ride for solar with your friends on the Peloton. Join us at 8am on the live ride with Cody Rigsby and invite your friends to join us. West coasters can join the ride later in the day, the highest output riders get to write a paragraph on SolarWakeup one day.
Shoals Road Show. On New Year’s Eve, Shoals filed for their IPO and now is managing their roadshow getting investors excited for the upcoming transparency and liquidity in the market. If at the end of the month their IPO goes well, and I expect that it will to the tune of a potential market cap over $1b, there is going to be a run on the markets including by those that are not ready for it.
Who’s Next? Most executives haven’t looked into it and realized that Shoals is only $150million in revenue with market margins. In many ways this is a trade that comps with Array Technologies as well as Enphase and Solaredge which will drive Shoals stock price higher. There are other solar companies in this range of revenue and margin and they are going to ask themselves how they can exit. First, you need to talk to the right people. Second, Shoals as well as Array before it, brought in a majority investor in Oaktree which gave the company years of professionalism and decades of relationships on wall street. There is no fast and easy path to what they’re doing but it can be done. Happy to chat with you if this is talking to you. Lastly and most importantly, I would be shocked if activist investors don’t get louder and more aggressive with Flex in the effort to spin out Nextracker. This is the most withheld value in solar public companies today.
The Rivian Raise. I don’t see Rivian as a Tesla competitor, in many ways it’s a sibling that also started a venture to compete with the status quo that is simply moving too slow. The Rivian SUV and pickup are great looking vehicles that will start shipping later this year. With another $2.6billion on the balance sheet, it looks like a good year for them as well.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 19th, 2020
The Big Tent. Developing solar has a big tent and needs to be expanded. Solar definitely has a NIMBY aspect, local communities when they are not involved in the process tend to fight against the idea. Joe Biden said this about transmission during the campaign season. We also need to be aware of the different communities that should be consulted and involved including Native American tribes. By including more groups we will find more supporters.
Climate Through Energy. Before he is sworn in, Biden is already saying that the Keystone XL permit will be canceled. If you remember, this was one of the first issues Trump took on when he came into office. This is not just an environmental statement but also a finality to the type of fuel we will need as a Country for the future. Transportation will be electric, bringing down dirty oil does not have a longterm economic certainty. The overlap between environmental impact and energy will be far and wide, providing economic opportunity for innovators and market participants like many of us.
VPP En Masse. A new player is getting a VPP contract in Hawaii. Swell energy recently raised $450million in capital from Ares and Aligned. The reality is that while VPPs are largely focused on platform owned projects will be at the benefit of individual homeowners. Storage does not need to be owned by 3rd parties for homeowners to benefit from putting their distributed resource into an aggregation, something that large players aren’t saying out loud because they are hoping for the sales pitch against individual ownership to continue.
Correction. Yesterday I said that Trump extended the 201 tariffs for modules, which was an error. The 201 tariffs for solar have been initiated for review to determine the extension by Trump but not actually extended. Apologies for the mistaken information.
Inauguration Week. On Wednesday, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. While solar has always soared above the partisan politics of DC or States, there is an undeniable alignment between the solar industry’s and Biden administration’s goals. The Clean Energy for Biden team is hosting an inaugural ball, taking shape in a different format, that you can attend from the comfort of your home. Some of the industry’s biggest supporters and names will be in attendance, will you join? You can learn more and buy tickets here.
Calling All Peloton Riders. Like many of you stuck in quarantine, unable to get to the gym, I joined the cult of Peloton. I have been watching and riding with some friends and realized that while we are apart, this brings us together in camaraderie and competition. You may have also seen that SEIA’s CEO, Abby Hopper, is an avid Pelotoner so we figured it’s time to #Ride4Solar. Add the hashtag to your profile to network with other solar pros, other cleantechers are welcome of course. Tomorrow, we’re taking the 8am Cody Rigsby live class if you want to join live or take it later in the day. Just another way to be together! #Ride4Solar
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 18th, 2020
Inauguration Week. On Wednesday, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. While solar has always soared above the partisan politics of DC or States, there is an undeniable alignment between the solar industry’s and Biden administration’s goals. The Clean Energy for Biden team is hosting an inaugural ball, taking shape in a different format, that you can attend from the comfort of your home. Some of the industry’s biggest supporters and names will be in attendance, will you join? You can learn more and buy tickets here.
Calling All Peloton Riders. Like many of you stuck in quarantine, unable to get to the gym, I joined the cult of Peloton. I have been watching and riding with some friends and realized that while we are apart, this brings us together in camaraderie and competition. You may have also seen that SEIA’s CEO, Abby Hopper, is an avid Pelotoner so we figured it’s time to #Ride4Solar. Add the hashtag to your profile to network with other solar pros, other cleantechers are welcome of course. On Wednesday, we’re taking the 8am Cody Rigsby live class if you want to join live or take it later in the day. Just another way to be together! #Ride4Solar
Tariffs And Manufacturing. Last week Trump extended the 201 tariffs for both washers and solar panels. This is a priority issue for SEIA as the Biden administration moves into the White House. It’s a tricky issue because everyone wants domestic manufacturing and some domestic manufacturing moved to the US with the 201 tariffs protecting a price war. In some instances this actually creates an internal conflict because some manufacturers are lobbying for the 201 tariffs to remain in effect and even have the ability to control the older duties as well. Surely there is a better way to incentivize domestic manufacturing without doubling the cost of solar panels for consumers. I also would like to get a better understanding of how many people, actual people, are working inside these factories.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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This is your SolarWakeup for January 15th, 2020
Welcome To The Rundown. McKinsey, a consultant to many status quo corporates, is reporting that renewables will be cheaper than fossil fuels by 2030 with green hydrogen as a big game changer for the energy transition. If you’re looking at peak usage, coal has already passed, oil will be max in 2029 and fracked methane in 2037. I’m not underestimating the importance of this report given the source and which board rooms McKinsey is in around the world.
Year Of Clean. EIA says that wind and solar will make up the majority of capacity addition in 2021, gas only participating at 16% of total capacity.
EVs And Regulators. Regulators and politicians are missing a major variable in the future of electricity. Electrification of transportation isn’t going to be limited to new Tesla owners, quite the opposite if you see General Motors putting a plug into their logo. EVs are going to be in every driveway and fleet with a major change in how much, when and where electricity is needed to fuel this sector. I will not be surprised if Governors all of a sudden call for emergency action by grid operators to ensure resilient access to energy because they failed to plan for this actuality.
The Climate Office. Biden is unveiling his climate office, though I am still waiting to see some of the names from solar I was hoping for.
Big Deal? Quietly, Tesla has launched their own inverter. A 3.8kW and 7.6kW string that looks like a miniature power wall. Have you used one?
Have A Great Weekend!
Market Update Continues. Join me and Phil Shen from Roth Capital next week with our usual panel of industry insiders as we talk about the solar market, now #11 in our series. The hourlong conversation and Q&A will dive into the news of right now and we’re never short of opinions or predictions. Register for the online call and I definitely recommend signing up for Phil’s solar newsletter.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 14th, 2020
Wakeup Scoop. Tigo Energy, the MLPE manufacturer, has raised a new $20million from UK based Energy Growth Momentum. This is the first solar related investment for the company based on its website’s portfolio. Tigo is well known for the module level power shutoff that powered many of the module OEM smart modules and now has a plug and play option for installers/EPCs the gives them the flexibility to choose safety/monitoring/optimization or a combination. In 2020 the company also bought out previous investor, SMA, which opens the company up to being a more vendor neutral solution. The company isn’t releasing revenue or valuation but was advised by Needham in the transaction. The UK angle is interesting given the strong safety and residential focus in Europe without the SEDG/ENPH duopoly that is well known in the US, Tigo told SolarWakeup that revenue in the US and Europe markets are similar.
Biden’s Central Theme. In one of his first official interviews after being named Director of the National Economic Council, Brian Deese told Reuters that climate is going to be a central theme throughout the policies enacted by the Biden administration. This means that everything that is prioritized will be measured and improved to help fight climate change. Biden appears to be going well beyond rejoining Paris, but also understanding how trade, commerce, tax rules and regulations impact the markets that enable technology and behavior to improve our air and water quality. With executive powers held strong by the resident in the White House, this kind of thinking may be a major upside catalyst for the market we play in.
More Jobs Needed. While the pandemic didn’t crush the industry it definitely caused a large number of our professionals to have their job disrupted. 12% of the prepandemic workforce is still unemployed. Based on the SolarWakeup supporters at EnergeiaWorks and Suntuity, I assure you that looking for jobs in solar has never been better but continuing our market growth will ensure that the jobs reach everywhere in America as well. After the pandemic, I will be taking SolarWakeup on the road into the parts of the Country that may have resisted and fought against solar but now understand that an energy transition is taking place. How is solar received in rural Kentucky? Suburban Arkansas? That’s what I want to find out.
C&I Focus Continues. Another day and another C&I highlight by our friends at Madison Energy Investments. This team may have one of the biggest track records in the space so if this market is of interest to you, read this.
Market Update Continues. Join me and Phil Shen from Roth Capital next week with our usual panel of industry insiders as we talk about the solar market, now #11 in our series. The hourlong conversation and Q&A will dive into the news of right now and we’re never short of opinions or predictions. Register for the online call and I definitely recommend signing up for Phil’s solar newsletter.
SunShot (SETO) Money Deadline. It will always be SunShot to me but the Solar Energy Technology Office at DOE is open for a $45million funding round.Find out more here
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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This is your SolarWakeup for January 13th, 2020
Proterra SPAC. The electric bus manufacturer is going public via SPAC, the Arclight SPAC and taking additional capital from Chamath Palihapitiya. The total deal represents a $1.6B value for Proterra. Proterra has a foundational company, as a manufacturer and system provider for other OEMs. What Proterra hasn’t figured out yet is a lesson learned by the solar industry, it’s not about the hardware but the capital used to deploy it. One of Arclight SPAC’s board members is Audrey Lee, formerly the head of grid services at Sunrun. I’m not saying that Proterra is a non-stationary energy storage company but I’m not saying they couldn’t be either.
Impeachment, Inauguration and Climate Change. The election was early November, electoral college voted on December 11th, Congress passed a omnibus spending bill in late December and on January 6th Congress certified the election. Of course we know what happened next on the day when all things fell apart and in a world where we don’t want bad news, America kept moving forward. Today, the House is preparing to start voting on impeachment which will have a record bipartisan support. That means that the Senate will start a trial on the day Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are sworn into office, a trial to convict then former President Trump. I say all of this because Schumer will be the majority leader on January 21st and Congress has an ambitious agenda ahead including climate change. Schumer says Congress can walk and chew gum at the same time, wait and see.
Will Storage Save C&I? C&I solar has struggled for as long as I can remember with low electricity prices. It’s not that commercial properties pay less on their electric bills, their bill tends to be more skewed to the demand charges that until now were not reachable by distributed generation like solar. The difference today and tomorrow is that energy storage is getting cheaper than ever, a level that makes demand charge reduction possible and desirable. In reality it’s what got Stem the valuation it got in their SPAC. This optimism is voiced in the op-ed from our friends and fellow CALSSA board member at Energy Toolbase.
Cleantech Editors. Sign up to hear what’s driving the solar and clean tech news in 2021. A group of editors is going on a zoom call to answer your questions and talk about what’s ahead. Register for free, happens today at 1pm Eastern
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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This is your SolarWakeup for January 12th, 2020
More Tomorrow. No column today, enjoy the top news in solar and make sure to send news my way to round out the rundown.
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Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send us an email!
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This is your SolarWakeup for January 11th, 2020
Is 2021 About Supply Chain? Solar may be growing but the bumps in the road will continue. The forced labor issue in Xinjiang was covered in the New York Times, solar glass costs are rising with limited supply and global demand is higher than ever. There is also a global boom of EVs impacting the battery supply that also provides for energy storage which we are already feeling in solar. Supply chain should be agenda item number one in your management meetings not only understanding what to buy but also expanding the time horizon on when you should purchase goods. That’s the point to consider, materials are available but it takes longer to get those goods.
A Finance Pulley. When you pull on something through a pulley, you get twice as much as you expect. That’s what is happening in the banking world. Shareholders are pressuring banks to stop financing fossil fuels, the economic indicators are showing that those assets are bad investments while renewables are desired for inevitability and ESG purposes. This means that banks not only want to stop financing old assets but expand what they are investing in new energy. Good thing is that solar, in particular, is rapidly increasing both the values that investments generate as well as total investment potential.
201 Tariff Without Plaintiffs. Sunpower is closing the Hillsboro manufacturing facility in line with their work to stop producing modules after the spinoff to Maxeon. This factory is the original SolarWorld factory that sold me modules at $4/watt but more importantly SolarWorld started the global trade war in solar. The AD/CVD, in the Obama years, caused China to retaliate with tariffs against US silicon. Then came the 201 tariff brought by Suniva and SolarWorld, both companies now long gone and remnants of their domestic manufacturing gone. What’s next? That’s my question this morning.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send us an email!
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This is your SolarWakeup for January 8th, 2020
247GW Of Rooftop Solar. Last year I interviewed John Farrell from ILSR to talk about his plan to put solar on 30million homes. The impact of such a concept, putting solar on rooftops around the Country, has been modeled in a recent study which is covered in the LA Times. If were were to get to over 200GW on rooftops, it would save half a trillion in other grid infrastructure and generation costs.
Big Alpha In Solar. Unless you live under a rock you’ve seen the gains solar stocks have made in the past 12 months. Some stocks are up 1000% since April. More than anything, look at the rise in stock price since the Democrats won the Senate in addition to the White House. Policy, more than anything else, has doubled stock prices in the past 90 days. Take two 2021 policy initiatives for example. FERC 2222 is going to create a marketplace for behind the meter resources including solar and storage, a good policy could double the value of solar/storage on homes versus a weak policy that doesn’t move the needle. NEM 3.0 in California can also go two ways, utilities will fight to the tune of $50million plus to remove the benefit of rooftop solar versus a strong NEM 3.0 that values solar and solar plus storage the way that DERs are needed to aid in grid resiliency. I am going to personally set aside time to take meetings with anyone that wants to discuss how to budget 1% of revenue for policy and how to spend it to maximize your enterprise value.
What Biden Thinks Of Tariffs. I don’t have the answer for that but this administration stance is going to be of great interest to me and many others I am sure. How will Biden, his trade representative and advisors advance solar while maximizing made in America solar jobs.
Consolidate Your Power. As you walk back into your offices (remote or otherwise) you will realize that the conversation is about what isn’t available. Modules, inverters, wires, tax equity, labor and other core requirements are in high demand and short supply. On product supply look towards consolidating your purchasing with similar companies to maximize your access and keep your pricing competitive. We’d be happy to give you more information at the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group.
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