This is your SolarWakeup for December 7th, 2020
It’s A Big Week In DC. It was the corona stimulus and spending bills and now Trump’s attempt to kill section 230 has added the defense spending bill to the to-do list. Most of the work is being done in the Senate and with the NDAA addition, you could expect a continuing resolution instead of an omnibus. A lot will happen every day and the key for me that I’m watching for is any talk about tax extenders, which has been absent thus far (at least publicly).
The STEM SPAC. Stem, a decade removed from an old furniture showroom near SFO, is going public via a reverse merger. Crunchbase shows the company with 20 investors and having raised $371million through their series E. Press releases covering the SPAC announcement has the total value at $1.35billion for the company. In the early days, Stem installed 50kWh batteries at Walgreens as a method to avoid peak demand charges. More recently it appears that the company is more involved in demand aggregation relationships with power markets and utilities though that’s not entirely clear. We will get more public data on the company soon, a real-world check on what virtual power plants are worth.
Biden’s Climate Team. Nominations and staffing rumors are the highlight of a transition. Biden has previously announced former Secretary of State John Kerry as the presidential envoy and permanent member of the NSC for climate. This highlights how Biden will take on the issue in foreign policy and international relations. On the economic front, Biden named Brian Deese as to the National Economic Council putting a climate spin on economic policy. This leaves us with the EPA, Energy and the domestic climate coordinator. Axios has Senator Schumer pushing for Mary Nichols from California for the top of the EPA, we’ve been talking about this for several months and everyone reading this should be rooting for that to happen. Though Biden also picked Xavier Becerra (current CA AG) for HHS and cleaning out Newsom’s staff may be an issue. That leaves us with the domestic climate coordinator role, the floating executive that will ensure agencies are on the same page. Governor’s Granholm and Inslee have both been floated as well as Governor Cuomo’s lead on climate, Ali Zaidi. Granholm brings an interesting background to this, she used to brag about the solar manufacturing center her administration was building in Michigan back in 2007, something that could be used to keep on track with domestic manufacturing.
No Freaking Way. Georgia installed a solar roadway, better believe it. This may push the solar buttons all over again.
Still Essential. As parts of the Country go into lockdown including California, this is a reminder that solar installers are largely considered essential services. Your state chapter may have a memo, like this one from CALSSA, that helps your business stay in operation.
Worthy Of Considerations. Not enough time today but the new Moody’s carbon addition to bond ratings has the possibility of monetizing utilities’ efforts in renewables. Few things have the ability to change a utility CEO’s focus more than the corporate credit rating. The other thing to watch is Google’s efforts to reform RTOs. We’ve been tracking the desire by the tech giant to colocate and time-align their renewable energy purchasing with their own consumption.
Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 4th, 2020
Happy Friday. In some ways this week was the quiet before the storm, the storm being the last few weeks of 2020. Developers will rush to get to PTO, installers building out the homes for the promised 26% ITC and Congress needs to make sure the government has the money to operate heading into the holidays. I have enjoyed this week because the incoming President keeps talking about climate change and solar, something that I’ve never experienced in the past. Have a great weekend!
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 3rd, 2020
Solar Is Female. Nasdaq announced a progressive and common sense requirement this week requiring companies to include at least one woman and person of color on their boards. Axios’ report from yesterday shows that boards with women are more prone to innovate on climate. When it comes to solar, I still believe it to be a women’s economy even though many of our trade shows don’t look like it. Women make a majority if not an almost decisive majority of decisions when it comes to home purchasing including home improvement. Polling this year showed that women and parents were a big increase in the demand from the consumer side. Solar doesn’t do it enough and maybe COVID creates the opportunity for women in solar to do more of the sales to consumers and explain why we’re on the path to put solar on every home in America.
The Orange Badge. Sungevity has been the household name since the inception of the iPad. On an iPad 1 is where I saw the concept of Google earth driving residential solar builds for the first time. In many ways, Sungevity is as alive as ever, building tens of thousands of solar homes in Europe and more importantly the orange backdrop on LinkedIn profile pictures across the solar landscape. The company may be gone but the people that created and built that business power many solar teams across the industry today.
Oil’s New Power Grab. Two things that oil majors will absolutely be doing aside from investing every possible dollar into renewable energy projects. One, every gas station will add fast charging for EVs. With prime real estate that has always outperformed inside the store, EV charging is better because it takes longer. It’s confusing me an oil major hasn’t acquired Blink/evGo/Chargepoint yet. Two, oil majors will continue to acquire energy retail companies. Many already provide trading platforms for them to acquire the electricity for the consumer, the customer-facing funnel will prove invaluable going forward.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive. Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 2nd, 2020
Two Bills Become One. Senator McConnell is laying the path for the covid stimulus to be rolled into the omnibus spending bill which is needed to fund the government beyond December 11th. Romney had earlier stated that there’s a covid path at a $900billion mark including the reuse of the unused treasury slush fund. McConnell is signaling the pathway towards something I find rather positive, the spending bill will get bigger and more important. In DC, the bigger the price tag the better especially if it does things voters require of legislators like save the economy from a recession, send them money and fund the military. The most important part is that voters do not distinguish between $3 or $4trillion dollars, it’s a lot of money any way you look at it. What nobody has said yet is talk of tax extenders or continuing resolution. It seems to me that McConnell isn’t interested in pushing this to the new Congress (Georgia runoffs pending and new members with agendas) and a Biden White House. Watch this space for the next week, some action alerts may be coming your way.
A New FERC. Allison Clements and Mark Christie have been confirmed as new FERC commissioners. Ms. Clements is well regarded from inside the clean tech sector and is touted on Twitter having been active on the wonky #energytwitter prior to her nomination. Mr. Christie is also seen as a solid interpreter of the rules and regulations governing the energy markets and this is coming from a former regulator. This may setup a decent starting point for the Biden administration especially, as one would assume, a review of the MOPR is brought back to the docket amongst other things.
Climate Investing Tool. BlackRock is showing some professional chops today. On Monday, Brian Deese was announced as a Biden appointee who comes from BlackRock as the Global Head of Sustainable Investments and is under some, albeit tempered, fire from the progressives. Yesterday, BlackRock is enhancing its ESG credibility with a investment tool that will analyze companies based on internal and external sources on how able to withstand climate change. Aladdin Climate will rank companies on how well they do against climate goals set forth. The head of the tool is Mary-Catherine Lader, her (former) boss is Brian Deese.
Dealflow For Investors. Third Derivative is a venture/incubator spun out by RMI and New Energy Nexus which launched with almost 50 invested companies this week. Their LPs are many of the corporates that like the space but don’t get the deal flow and ability to invest at the lower dollar amounts that many of these companies need at the early stages. A $5million check for an oil major doesn’t pay the legal fees so a platform like Third Derivative makes sense.
Polluters Must Fund. Abandoned and capped wells across the Country are polluting the environment around them and that’s a problem. While some see an opportunity to clean it up, the Department of Justice, EPA and Interior need to be finding those that have commitments to those wells and landowners and ensure that they pay for the entirety of an investment gone back.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 1st, 2020
Big Solar Tech Money. Aurora, the design software company, added $50million in new capital from in their series B after raising $20million in their series A from 2018. From my memory, this could be the biggest software capital raise in our sector. Will be exciting to see what this runway does for the company.
We’re Adding Decimals. The scale of our industry is getting to a point where some of us have to recalibrate our minds. Take for example, the size of the securitizations in residential solar finance or the contracts for tracker supply in the utility scale sector. It seems that rather quickly, everything moved over one decimal and it feels like things are just getting warmed up.
What Grid Is Needed? Aside from the transition from gas to electric vehicles electricity consumption is going to stay largely flat or drop going forward. There have been hundreds of gigawatts of new gas plants with little talk about new grid infrastructure, why does renewable addition all of a sudden needs hundreds of billions in new investments? I have no problem in planning for a new 21st century grid, but that shouldn’t be a cost burden placed on solar and renewables. There is plenty of capacity coming offline that leaves room for new resources.
Biden’s Climate Advisor Pick. Brian Deese is joining the National Economic Council as Biden’s pick and is seen to be the inside man for climate. Deese is getting some negative feedback from the left because he works at Blackrock. The purity test is not for me, I’ve seen lots of solar enabled thanks to capital provided by firms like Blackrock and solar pros going to work at these firms. They, as Deese did, are creating internal pressure to expand ESG capital commitments and increased focus. Note that he comes with a quasi endorsement from Bill McKibben, who happened to perform Deese’s marriage ceremony.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 30th, 2020
Closing 2020. I still have the Thanksgiving coast this afternoon and I hope you enjoyed your long weekend in your best way possible. Yes it was different but maybe it brought you back to some level of comfort. We’re four weeks out from closing the book on 2020 and I start thinking about lists and the big stories of the year, what a year to think back on for solar. It’s also a time to do the 2021 forecast: who, what, when, where and why. Start pondering and we’ll exchange notes. If anyone has great gift ideas for a 10, 9 and 4 year old that incorporates solar, I’d love to hear them.
One Big Thing. With 236GW worth of coal capacity still online, many of which have a retirement date let’s look at the two attributes that are still valuable beyond the retirement but are not valued by anyone in the grid operations. Until the moment we start valuing, with real dollars, these two things, we will have a hard time actually closing these power plants that are polluting communities around the Country. First, the interconnection is incredibly valuable. If the land allows, connecting a new power generation to that interconnection point is the cleanest and cheapest way to operation. If the land is not there, like a downtown peaker plant for example, it’s a great energy storage connection point. Second, unused grid capacity. If a coal plant goes out of service the same capacity should be allowed to reconnect with a fast track interconnection. The way it works today is solar or other generation that applies to connect to a certain point of interconnection that has a coal plant on it, even if the coal plant is scheduled to close, grid operations do not remove that existing capacity. That results in large interconnection fees and new power lines required for the new generation even though they are filling a gap. If we just offset coal plants in the next 5 years, solar would grow at rates never seen before.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 24th, 2020
What We Know. The GSA has authorized the funds for the Biden transition team to receive the funds and access to start the transition. It also appears that Trump authorized this move in the closest we’ve come to a conclusion to the election. States have begun certifying their elections including PA, MI and GA while California does so on the 11th of December, 3 days before the electoral college meets on the 14th. Remember, the Government runs out of money on the 11th of December unless Congress passes a budget or continuing resolution (CR) which would require Trump’s signature unless a veto override takes place.
Climate Change Is National Security. John Kerry is returning to the White House as special presidential envoy for climate. This is a new cabinet level role for the former Senator and Secretary of State and will sit as a full member of the national security council. Kerry capped his time at State with the Paris agreement and founded the global organization, world war zero. This elevates climate to a security role and opens the dialogue that foreign policy has to take the issue into account. Some are unhappy with the status quo message of Kerry taking the lead but you have to assume he hits the ground running with decades of relationships with foreign political and corporate leaders.
Look For A Domestic Equal. It is expected that another climate leader will be added to the White House to coordinate across the agencies on the domestic front. If you step back, you understand that ever cabinet secretary has a portfolio of policies that impact climate change and some coordination needs to take place. We still have no nomination for energy, transportation, interior or EPA. Expect that to give us more color going forward.
Subsidies? You’re Joking. It is laughable to say we are going to subsidize climate change away, at best we are going to let climate change solutions play on an equal playing field. Not even the subsidies that solar and wind get are on par with what oil and gas get and have been getting for decades, long after reaching maturity and never paying their share for the damage they’ve caused the planet. Utilities still receive guaranteed rate base for natural gas plants that are subsidized from the shale to the pipeline and the stack, leaving consumers and neighbors to pay for the damage. Renewables need no subsidies, as long as no other fuels and incumbents get them either and societal costs are factored in.
What Does GM Know? GM seems to think that Biden is thinking big about electric transportation, doing a big leap in acknowledging the future is all electric. In that press release, GM also dropped its support for Trumps fight against California and the state’s ability to regulate auto emissions separately. This could be as simple as shifting with the wind but could also mean that Biden is about to double down on California’s 2035 goal of no more internal combustion sales. The leader in California on the trend to electrify transportation both consumer, fleet and mass transit has been Mary Nichols, the chair of the California Air Resources Board. She was an assistant administrator at the EPA for President Clinton and would look great in the administrator’s office for President Biden. Maybe GM knows more than they let on?
Happy Thanksgiving! SolarWakeup is off for the rest of the week, returning on the 30th. You can stay in touch with us on LinkedIn or follow me on Twitter @yannbrandt. Of course, you can always hit reply to the morning email and let me know your thoughts. I’d be extra thankful if you forward this email and ask someone to subscribe to the newsletter.
When Will It Build? Here’s the question I have been pondering for a few weeks. If someone signs a contract to put solar on your house, when do you tell them it will be installed? How sure are you that enough product will be available when install time comes? We are entering the most complex 2 quarters residential solar has ever seen, backlogs are at an all-time high and supply chains are very tight. The Buyer’s Group is working through this and would love to talk with you about it. Reach out on the price discovery page.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 23rd, 2020
Biden Gets Involved. The President-elect is getting involved in the debate for the next round of stimulus. He has set the marker alongside the House’s $2trillion which is more than the Senate and Trump have offered. This remains a long shot for solar to get any policies into it even though a national permitting standard would be ideal to get folks back to work. Watch the spending bill instead as talks heat up once Congress comes back on the 30th.
Aligning Climate With Business Lobby. All roads are leading towards a bigger tent for solar lobbying. Corporates want more renewables and they want the best deal possible. Corporations want solar electricity from solar farms, solar on their rooftops and let their employees working remotely do have that same luxury. So what does it look like when the Chamber of Commerce and SEIA lobby for the same policy? Or when oil companies fight for electricity deregulation?
Power Of Incumbency. The EPA Chief, who is less than 60 days from the end of his tenure, has a couple of international trips planned before leaving his office. They say that power corrupts and whether you’re the administrator of the EPA or the chair of the PUC, there are billions of dollars at play every single day all over this Country. This is more true in energy than anything else given that the monopolies that have served as the market incumbents for decades.
When Will It Build? Here’s the question I have been pondering for a few weeks. If someone signs a contract to put solar on your house, when do you tell them it will be installed? How sure are you that enough product will be available when install time comes? We are entering the most complex 2 quarters residential solar has ever seen, backlogs are at an all-time high and supply chains are very tight. The Buyer’s Group is working through this and would love to talk with you about it. Reach out on the price discovery page.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 20th, 2020
Let’s Get Into The Weekend. Trump finally gets the green light to remove the 201 exemption for bifacial modules. This comes after a long line of litigation that delayed this. Biden would be well situated to give the market some certainty and announce a review of the 201 with the intention to eliminate the tariff with an announcement to help the solar industry create more domestic manufacturing.
A Word From A Policy Pro. A great friend to many solar pros, Tony Clifford, gives you 5 things to watch in the new Biden era.
PG&E Gets New CEO. The CEO of Michigan’s Consumers Energy is moving to the Golden State. Not to take advantage of the lower San Francisco rents but to become the next CEO of PG&E. Consumers was recently trying to eliminate net metering by cutting the value of solar in half while increasing residential rates by double digits. I hope Ms. Poppe will take the time to understand the benefits of solar and storage in the California grid.
841 Times 2222. FERC has shown its intentions with FERC orders 841 and 2222 which allow storage and other distributed resources to become market participants with both front and behind the meter installations. States are responsible with filing their plans on how this would work in their markets but interconnection rules will have to keep up at the same time. State policy advocates will have to work this in parallel.
Another VPP Headline. Sunrun is running away with virtual power plant offerings to utilities. We are still in very early stages of this market which will become one where all homeowners will be able to participate through aggregators. Owning the individual assets is an easy early adopter strategy but not one for the long run.
Not Just Cars. This week brought headlines on the policy movements in the transportation transition to electric vehicles. The broader point is that fleets, including vans, trucks and buses, are transitioning at a faster pace than consumer cars. One to watch.
Spotlight On Community Clinic. This 412 kW-DC solar carport installation at Vista Community Clinic (VCC) will provide long term renewable energy for the sustainability-driven healthcare facility. M Bar C Construction, CollectiveSun, and VCC leadership joined together in bringing this system from funding to design to installation. Solar energy produced from the installation will free up facility resources allowing VCC to continue to serve their patients and the surrounding community while setting a powerful example of their commitment to renewable energy.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 19th, 2020
Climate Administration. This seems to be the insider track on how Biden will elevate the issue of climate change. Let’s see the execution and then ask if personnel is policy.
Money Coming In. Another SPAC, this time from legendary investor TJ Rodgers, plus some great venture investments. More to come I’m sure.
Partial Or Total. The electric vehicle policy path tends to be centered around whether EV is part of a portfolio or if there is a push to make it the only option for cars. I’d caution folks to put any auto/EV announcement as a versus Tesla framing, there are millions of cars sold every year and the market will not be winner take all.
A Map For Utilities. We have reached the point where energy transition equals the best financial case for consumers. Doing nothing, including staying in stranded fossil assets, will cost consumers more money and that’s the cost shift argument to watch.
Spotlight On Community Clinic. This 412 kW-DC solar carport installation at Vista Community Clinic (VCC) will provide long term renewable energy for the sustainability-driven healthcare facility. M Bar C Construction, CollectiveSun, and VCC leadership joined together in bringing this system from funding to design to installation. Solar energy produced from the installation will free up facility resources allowing VCC to continue to serve their patients and the surrounding community while setting a powerful example of their commitment to renewable energy.
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Yann