This is your SolarWakeup for December 15th, 2020
How Fast Will EVs Grow? Mercedes announced that it is adding 8 EVs to the lineup including an Alabama built large SUV by 2022. By the time your next lease ends, this could be a reality and most likely this will be one of many. While it is still surprising to me that Ford isn’t fast tracking an electric F-150 and Explorer we are embarking in something that will seem incredibly obvious a few years from now. The electric consumer vehicle is going from 0-60 in the next replacement cycle, it won’t just be Tesla and Rivian but every brand you love today. Part of the reason for this is also what creates the growth in residential solar. A consumer goes from uneducated to skeptical with some particular characteristic, i.e. range anxiety or solar is too expensify. Then, all of a sudden, a neighbor puts solar on their roof and buys a Tesla and skepticism is potentially eliminated. That network effect becomes a flywheel effect when more than one neighbor changes their behavior.
Executing The Clean Power Plan. Gina McCarthy was the principal architect of the Clean Power Plan as the EPA administrator. She was highly effective, part of the reason it took the Senate 136 days to confirm her nomination. Biden is eyeing her as the Domestic Climate Coordinator and if you’re wondering how the dumbest, newly elected members of Congress feel about it, read the tweet. (Clicking the tweet will reveal a part of the internet you may regret visiting, do so at your own risk)
Will All Transport Electrify? California has 2035 as the goal line for the end of sales for new internal combustion vehicles but a group of European truck manufacturers are setting another bar. The group includes Daimler, Scania, Volvo and Ford are pledging to end ICE for trucks in favor of other sources like battery and hydrogen by 2040. American trucking is one of the largest job creators in the Country and how this industry evolves with fuels and self driving technology will shape the future in a big way.
Adjusting Power Generation. Economic growth used to mean that power needs and electricity consumption increased, heat maps would tell you which areas of the country are growing their economy. Energy efficiency has largely muted that correlation but when transportation electrifies, we will need to plan for a significant increase in energy need and the appropriate increase in generation. You cannot legislate this shift in consumption behavior by moving towards EVs without also including in the same policy guidance and requirements for ensuring the grid is ready for it.
Using Rooftops Better. Rooftops remain the most valuable and underutilized real estate in the Country. This will require regulators to create a long term rate schedule for C&I rooftops because capacity potential will often be larger than the consumption in the building. Leases for large buildings will always be less than the 20/25 years that it takes to get a solar deal done. Those two variables require the downside scenario of a PPA agreement to provide enough cash flow for the solar project.
Hot Jobs. Starting this week you will see the return of the jobs listings on our daily newsletter. This popular feature which was too difficult for us to maintain in house will now be a partnership with our friends at EnergeiaWorks. I invite you to check out their jobs listings which will be updated weekly and support SolarWakeup partners. At any point, if you’d like a personal introduction, please let me know.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive. Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 14th, 2020
Spending Bill Pushed. Late Friday, Trump signed a one week continuing resolution that lets the government stay open. This came as Senators on both sides threatened to put holds on the measure in order to get stimulus paid to Americans and deal with the defense spending bill which Trump had threatened to veto. This is all relevant to solar because the omnibus bill still stays in limbo and tax extenders may fall to the wayside or sneak in if folks are focused on getting big items passed.
The Vaccine Ships. If you’re enthralled with logistics processes like me, you’ll find this deep dive into how FedEx and UPS will be getting the vaccine to your local areas. With 20million Pfizer doses expected to reach patients by year end, the logistics challenge includes ramping up the manufacturing of dry ice.
VPPs Take Different Shapes, Big Dollars. Last week there were two headlines with similar yet different takeaways. OhmConnect, which reduces existing consumers loads on demand, raised $80million for a demand shaped virtual power plant in California. A new player, Swell Energy, announced Friday that it raised $450million for a 14,000 home virtual power plant in California from Ares and Aligned Climate Capital. There are three ways that this project could yield monetization above the energy production: Swell could enter into a contract with a utility similar to Sunrun and the Bay Area CCAs, CAISO and other CA agencies could provide pricing signals in the market for distributed resources, or FERC order 2222 gets implemented which paves the path for DER revenue streams. Regardless, offsetting grid electricity will become only a part of the future financial value of distributed solar.
Mid-Atlantic Power Market. Several mid-atlantic utilities are proposing an energy exchange with state regulators and plan on bringing it to FERC in the future. While not a power market per se, it shows that utilities see the need for access to generation to reach beyond arbitrary service territories on a map.
EU Sees Carbon Decline Upside. No doubt that 2020 has reimagined energy consumption and carbon pollution, dropping emissions by 7% in some regions. The Paris agreement is 5 years old now and EU is increasing their speed of delivery of even greater reductions. Some of this is made possible by the change in societal behavior but it’s also because of the trends in solar and wind generation costs, battery pricing and capabilities and global belief that EVs are the exclusive future. Reporting out of China shows that there could be a reduction or elimination of coal project financing/development globally and a ramp up of shutdowns within their own borders.
Faster Permitting. This is your weekly reminder that the lowest cost, fastest path to putting solar on every roof in America is to make solar permitting online and instant. Hawaii is showing us the way alongside the great efforts of SolarAPP.
Hot Jobs. Starting today you will see the return of the jobs listings on our daily newsletter. This popular feature which was too difficult for us to maintain in house will now be a partnership with our friends at EnergeiaWorks. I invite you to check out their jobs listings which will be updated weekly and support SolarWakeup partners. At any point, if you’d like a personal introduction, please let me know.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 11th, 2020
Have A Great Weekend. Q4 is wrapping up and I think we’re all a little bit burnt out on 2020. More opinions and insights next week but make sure you catch my conversation with NexTracker’s CEO, Dan Shugar, this week on all your favorite podcast streams. Just search for SolarWakeup with Yann and you can subscribe, listen and share. It was an hour long conversation that easily could have gone six or seven.
Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 10th, 2020
A Senate Energy Bill? Could it be possible? Will the Senate be able to pass a bipartisan energy bill in the new session? That’s the headline in the news today and remains an effort being led by Manchin/Murkowski, the most centrist of the Senators. Wait and see, but unlikely.
ESG Pension Funds. When pension funds or endowments divest, I tend to shrug my shoulders. Not because it’s not a big deal but because it is bound to happen anyway. If investing is determining the value of companies in the future, investing in fossil fuel companies is not a good idea over the next 30 years.
Development Platforms Get $. BayWa may be the distributor you know in the US but globally they are a massive renewable energy development firm as well. EIP, the investment firm, is taking a 49% stake in the company for over $600million. The investing thesis will tell you that this investment will be worth well more than a few years from now.
Talk About Dealflow. The untold piece of ESG investment is that currently there is more money than deal flow. This is momentary but the sellers, startups, and companies raising the money are likely to be in a position of power but also in a position to ensure that ESG capital doesn’t have excuses not to grow.
Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 9th, 2020
Quick Hits. Congress is likely to pass a 1-week continuing resolution to push the spending bill to December 18th but Democrats may be trying to add a covid stimulus to the CR. Still no word about tax extenders.
Climate Coverage. David Roberts formerly of Vox and Grist has left Vox to start a climate and politics newsletter. Climate reporting is important, I don’t consider myself a reporter in the traditional sense because I comment from the inside. What David does well goes deep into complex issues and attempts to make them mainstream. If you like what he does, subscribe to his newsletter at volts.wtf. If you want his old job, Vox is hiring a climate writer.
UK Takes Steps. UK regulators are taking steps to make the grid catch up to the energy transition. National Grid, the utility in the UK, is also active in the US. The little known fact is that National Grid supported the original Sunrun capacity participation in the ISO-NE auction. Without National Grid, Sunrun wouldn’t have been this early to the grid services market. Maybe copying some of the UK steps is what the US should be looking to do.
Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 8th, 2020
Transparent Power Plant. OhmConnect has raised $100mm of which $80mm is going towards a virtual power plant. The capital is coming from the Alphabet backed Sidewalk Infrastructure fund. OhmConnect is known for its demand response platform, typically working off utility signals. Those signals cause Ohm to reduce participating homeowners’ demand by shutting off their AC/refrigerators/other loads with smart appliance connectors. How much opportunity is in this market? Shaping demand is one of the cornerstones of CAISO’s look into the future and how California can get to pure renewables because shaping supply isn’t always the most effective way of managing the grid. It’s easy to see how Ohm could deploy $10bb plus in the next few years to operate smart homes.
100% Is Feasible. Yesterday I wrote about Mary Nichols potential nomination to lead the EPA and today a draft report from the CPUC, CEC and CARB is released showing the technical feasibility of reaching 100% renewables by 2045. CARB is led by Mary Nichols who talked at the release about the transformation ahead for Californians. With reliability and grid resilience as the core concern, look above to Ohm’s platform and distributed solar with storage to be the central stabilizing tendon in the infrastructure.
The Climate Diplomats. Biden will enter his term having to play catchup on climate policy. While he will re-enter the Paris agreements, many of our global counterparts are already working towards or attempting to exceed the targets. Biden will also have a Senate and States that fight every step of his agenda to improve the quality of air and cleanliness of water across the Country.
Michigan Has Insights. Consumers Energy has a rate case that is the parting policy from their former CEO who has now moved to run California’s PG&E. Consumers had attempted to squash solar and is now pushing for more revenue in a rate case. How much of this DNA is transported to the San Francisco based utility is to be determined.
Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 7th, 2020
It’s A Big Week In DC. It was the corona stimulus and spending bills and now Trump’s attempt to kill section 230 has added the defense spending bill to the to-do list. Most of the work is being done in the Senate and with the NDAA addition, you could expect a continuing resolution instead of an omnibus. A lot will happen every day and the key for me that I’m watching for is any talk about tax extenders, which has been absent thus far (at least publicly).
The STEM SPAC. Stem, a decade removed from an old furniture showroom near SFO, is going public via a reverse merger. Crunchbase shows the company with 20 investors and having raised $371million through their series E. Press releases covering the SPAC announcement has the total value at $1.35billion for the company. In the early days, Stem installed 50kWh batteries at Walgreens as a method to avoid peak demand charges. More recently it appears that the company is more involved in demand aggregation relationships with power markets and utilities though that’s not entirely clear. We will get more public data on the company soon, a real-world check on what virtual power plants are worth.
Biden’s Climate Team. Nominations and staffing rumors are the highlight of a transition. Biden has previously announced former Secretary of State John Kerry as the presidential envoy and permanent member of the NSC for climate. This highlights how Biden will take on the issue in foreign policy and international relations. On the economic front, Biden named Brian Deese as to the National Economic Council putting a climate spin on economic policy. This leaves us with the EPA, Energy and the domestic climate coordinator. Axios has Senator Schumer pushing for Mary Nichols from California for the top of the EPA, we’ve been talking about this for several months and everyone reading this should be rooting for that to happen. Though Biden also picked Xavier Becerra (current CA AG) for HHS and cleaning out Newsom’s staff may be an issue. That leaves us with the domestic climate coordinator role, the floating executive that will ensure agencies are on the same page. Governor’s Granholm and Inslee have both been floated as well as Governor Cuomo’s lead on climate, Ali Zaidi. Granholm brings an interesting background to this, she used to brag about the solar manufacturing center her administration was building in Michigan back in 2007, something that could be used to keep on track with domestic manufacturing.
No Freaking Way. Georgia installed a solar roadway, better believe it. This may push the solar buttons all over again.
Still Essential. As parts of the Country go into lockdown including California, this is a reminder that solar installers are largely considered essential services. Your state chapter may have a memo, like this one from CALSSA, that helps your business stay in operation.
Worthy Of Considerations. Not enough time today but the new Moody’s carbon addition to bond ratings has the possibility of monetizing utilities’ efforts in renewables. Few things have the ability to change a utility CEO’s focus more than the corporate credit rating. The other thing to watch is Google’s efforts to reform RTOs. We’ve been tracking the desire by the tech giant to colocate and time-align their renewable energy purchasing with their own consumption.
Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 4th, 2020
Happy Friday. In some ways this week was the quiet before the storm, the storm being the last few weeks of 2020. Developers will rush to get to PTO, installers building out the homes for the promised 26% ITC and Congress needs to make sure the government has the money to operate heading into the holidays. I have enjoyed this week because the incoming President keeps talking about climate change and solar, something that I’ve never experienced in the past. Have a great weekend!
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 3rd, 2020
Solar Is Female. Nasdaq announced a progressive and common sense requirement this week requiring companies to include at least one woman and person of color on their boards. Axios’ report from yesterday shows that boards with women are more prone to innovate on climate. When it comes to solar, I still believe it to be a women’s economy even though many of our trade shows don’t look like it. Women make a majority if not an almost decisive majority of decisions when it comes to home purchasing including home improvement. Polling this year showed that women and parents were a big increase in the demand from the consumer side. Solar doesn’t do it enough and maybe COVID creates the opportunity for women in solar to do more of the sales to consumers and explain why we’re on the path to put solar on every home in America.
The Orange Badge. Sungevity has been the household name since the inception of the iPad. On an iPad 1 is where I saw the concept of Google earth driving residential solar builds for the first time. In many ways, Sungevity is as alive as ever, building tens of thousands of solar homes in Europe and more importantly the orange backdrop on LinkedIn profile pictures across the solar landscape. The company may be gone but the people that created and built that business power many solar teams across the industry today.
Oil’s New Power Grab. Two things that oil majors will absolutely be doing aside from investing every possible dollar into renewable energy projects. One, every gas station will add fast charging for EVs. With prime real estate that has always outperformed inside the store, EV charging is better because it takes longer. It’s confusing me an oil major hasn’t acquired Blink/evGo/Chargepoint yet. Two, oil majors will continue to acquire energy retail companies. Many already provide trading platforms for them to acquire the electricity for the consumer, the customer-facing funnel will prove invaluable going forward.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive. Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 2nd, 2020
Two Bills Become One. Senator McConnell is laying the path for the covid stimulus to be rolled into the omnibus spending bill which is needed to fund the government beyond December 11th. Romney had earlier stated that there’s a covid path at a $900billion mark including the reuse of the unused treasury slush fund. McConnell is signaling the pathway towards something I find rather positive, the spending bill will get bigger and more important. In DC, the bigger the price tag the better especially if it does things voters require of legislators like save the economy from a recession, send them money and fund the military. The most important part is that voters do not distinguish between $3 or $4trillion dollars, it’s a lot of money any way you look at it. What nobody has said yet is talk of tax extenders or continuing resolution. It seems to me that McConnell isn’t interested in pushing this to the new Congress (Georgia runoffs pending and new members with agendas) and a Biden White House. Watch this space for the next week, some action alerts may be coming your way.
A New FERC. Allison Clements and Mark Christie have been confirmed as new FERC commissioners. Ms. Clements is well regarded from inside the clean tech sector and is touted on Twitter having been active on the wonky #energytwitter prior to her nomination. Mr. Christie is also seen as a solid interpreter of the rules and regulations governing the energy markets and this is coming from a former regulator. This may setup a decent starting point for the Biden administration especially, as one would assume, a review of the MOPR is brought back to the docket amongst other things.
Climate Investing Tool. BlackRock is showing some professional chops today. On Monday, Brian Deese was announced as a Biden appointee who comes from BlackRock as the Global Head of Sustainable Investments and is under some, albeit tempered, fire from the progressives. Yesterday, BlackRock is enhancing its ESG credibility with a investment tool that will analyze companies based on internal and external sources on how able to withstand climate change. Aladdin Climate will rank companies on how well they do against climate goals set forth. The head of the tool is Mary-Catherine Lader, her (former) boss is Brian Deese.
Dealflow For Investors. Third Derivative is a venture/incubator spun out by RMI and New Energy Nexus which launched with almost 50 invested companies this week. Their LPs are many of the corporates that like the space but don’t get the deal flow and ability to invest at the lower dollar amounts that many of these companies need at the early stages. A $5million check for an oil major doesn’t pay the legal fees so a platform like Third Derivative makes sense.
Polluters Must Fund. Abandoned and capped wells across the Country are polluting the environment around them and that’s a problem. While some see an opportunity to clean it up, the Department of Justice, EPA and Interior need to be finding those that have commitments to those wells and landowners and ensure that they pay for the entirety of an investment gone back.
Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann