This is your SolarWakeup for November 12th, 2020
Post Election Interview. As promised, yesterday I spoke with SEIA’s CEO, Abby Hopper. SEIA and the solar industry have to maneuver a divided government in an effort to move solar forward for the solar+ decade. We talk about the ITC extension, trade issues and improving interconnection/permitting issues for all parts of solar. You can find the podcast on your favorite stream or here.
Post Election Market Update. On Friday you can join me on Roth Capital’s solar market update call. Register for that here as we talk about politics, supply chain constraints and just how fast the market is growing.
Biden Makes Moves. The President-elect named his long time advisor and former ebola czar as the next White House Chief of Staff. Ron Klein has been Biden’s COS before and knows where the keys to the situation room are. There are names floating for cabinet members and also the idea of creating a climate czar or climate department. Governor Inslee, recently reelected, is often the name that comes up when discussing a climate leader but don’t get too lost in the headline names. The key is to find the staff that get into the weeds of the policy. I’m more interested in the chief of staff to the FERC commissioners or the legislative affairs director for energy policy than the climate czar. Be patient, hiring will happen over the next two months.
The Smart Grid Poster. It’s not the most exciting topic but interconnection queues are well over 100GW and the cost to upgrade the grid is getting higher every day. There is a misaligned interest between the grid operator and generators while the grid is in bad shape. It was built decades ago and that is why there was a map of a 21st century smart grid in Joe Biden’s office as Vice President. Also, think of where this grid would be built. Tens of billions of dollars would be invested in a lot of the states that have republican representation in the Senate. Biden is going to want FERC to get RTOs to clear queues and let wind and solar projects move forward. Maybe we will have infrastructure week coming soon after all.
Buy Smarter. Solar products don’t get to installers in a straight line. It goes through layers, packaging, repackaging, unloading and reloading of containers to get to its final destination. Most of the time, installers pay more than double than the original cost to manufacturer because of those inefficiencies. Plus the pricing for products is not transparent which makes one installer pay more than the next. Take some of that inefficiency out of the process by joining the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group, a membership organization that puts the purchasing power back in installers’ hands. Find out more at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 11th, 2020
What Can Joe Do? In the past 4 years America learned a lot about what is and is not possible for the executive branch to do without congressional approval. The Supreme Court has heard several cases that made that box clearer including ability to designate a national emergency and issue executive orders. Whether Biden, a politician who favors tradition, gets his hands dirty in this path is to be determined.
Is Solar VC Hot? I think so, there are multiple investment opportunities that the informal SolarWakeup syndicate is looking at to participate in. We are also seeing traditional VC getting involved. A lot of this is because ‘passing the hat’ is possible within this readership that was not just a few years ago. Not everyone has the appetite to do angel investing but more and more of you are doing well and have strong conviction about where the market is going. No longer is the first slide in every deck, trying to sell the future of the solar market growth. Raising a couple million dollars in solar is now much more possible than ever before and when a market invests in itself, outsiders don’t want to be left behind.
Interested In A DC Job? Clean Energy 4 Biden is taking names of solar pros that are interested in learning more about working in DC. This is not directly affiliated with the administration but it could be a great way to make it know that you are interested in working for President Biden. You can enter your information on their intake form.
NextEra Wants More. In the past month NextEra has approach Duke for an acquisition and now has offered $15billion to Evergy the parent of Kanas City ower and Light and Westar Energy. Evergy has 5000 employees with and over $5billion in revenues while serving over 500,000 customers. This is a core geography for NextEra’s wind unit and may be a strategic initiative to be more aggressive than the oil companies who also have the cash to do this.
Let’s Talk DERs. Two of the Bay Area’s leaders in distributed resources, Nick Chaset, CEO of EBCE a CCA based on Oakland, and Cisco DeVries, CEO of OhmConnect, wrote what many of us are saying. California needs to get its act together with regard to distributed resources. At the end of the day consumer behavior and benefits will follow the pricing signals that the market sends. If DERs get recognized, watch out for major growth in storage for solar installations.
Buy Smarter. Solar products don’t get to installers in a straight line. It goes through layers, packaging, repackaging, unloading and reloading of containers to get to its final destination. Most of the time, installers pay more than double than the original cost to manufacturer because of those inefficiencies. Plus the pricing for products is not transparent which makes one installer pay more than the next. Take some of that inefficiency out of the process by joining the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group, a membership organization that puts the purchasing power back in installers’ hands. Find out more at solarwakeup.com/pricing
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 10th, 2020
Interview with SEIA’s Abby Hopper. Tomorrow I host a Q&A with SEIA’s CEO Abby Hopper. You can participate by submitting your questions, the interview will be recorded and published here on Thursday. The time for politics is now and we all have to be on the same page with our talking points.
The Right Messaging. This is the line that the Biden administration should use. We’re not proposing radical solutions, in fact BP is right along with us. Of course the hope is to go much farther but the market has already decided that coal has transitioned to gas and gas is being dumped by industry. The same way that Trump couldn’t save coal, Biden can only accelerate what is already happening. And if he can make everyone believe that oil companies are on board, let’s go!
Holy MISO. The buzz around the SolarWakeup trading desk was that the interconnection queue for MISO is growing and 57GW is now the total active pipeline. Much like the studies announced in the Southwest Power Pool, where transmission studies just announced an $8.5billion price tag for infrastructure upgrades for the interconnection of 14GW of renewables. In reality we likely need as much of the 57GW as we can build and DC should think about how to leverage infrastructure week to make the smart grid work.
Would Disclosures Work? The UN Climate Envoy is backing a plan to make shareholders participate, review and/or vote on corporate climate plans during annual shareholder meetings. In an open market you would think that this is unnecessary as we’ve seen fund managers and investors argue for corporate ESG. If they are not content with the corporate goals and disclosures will they sell their investments? The envoy is arguing that regulated disclosure is required to ensure compliance with stated goals since they are filing to their truth not just opining on hopes on a call.
How To Charge It Up. GM announced hiring of 3,000 new employees to accelerate their EV rollout. We’ve already covered VW, Daimler and others doing similar things in order to catch up with Tesla. California set the benchmark of 100% new cars as EVs by 2035 already but didn’t talk at all about how to charge this additional load given it’s all going to charge in a distributed network. This could be Biden’s secret plan to supercharge solar, in a way to electrify the automotive sector of the coming decade.
I’m Excited. The most exciting part of the new administration for me is how many of you will be working in it. While we may not have enough grey hair in our readership to make one of your the climate czar (maybe) but we have all the intelligence and experience to staff up the climate office, office of legislative affairs and agencies around DC to make sure that solar, storage and DERs are well represented.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 9th, 2020
President-Elect Biden. Saturday morning’s crepe making was interrupted by a call by the networks that former Senator and Vice-President had earned the title of President-elect. It also means that California’s Senator Harris was now Vice President-elect Harris, the first woman elevated to the office. Congratulations to them, and many of you, for this achievement. Also a word to those of you that didn’t pick the Biden Harris ticket, some of you have explained to me your reasons, I hope that you will find this administration more receptive to your input than the Trump administration did before and you will give them a chance. As a father of three, including a 8 year old daughter, I was moved throughout the day as my daughters, who didn’t care much about Joe Biden becoming President, but repeatedly said Madam Vice President.
An Ambitious Agenda. As President-elect Biden laid out in his speech on Saturday night and throughout the campaign, climate change and renewable energy are at the top of the to-do list. Over the coming weeks, we will separate the issues and where they need to go in order for change to occur. Some will be able to be handled via executive order, some via agencies, administrations, or commissions while others require congressional action. Trade organizations, including SEIA, came out to congratulate the new administration. SEIA also included a robust 100 day plan that was ready to go, you can see that here. SolarWakeup will host a live Q&A with SEIA’s Abby Hopper to discuss the ideas and ways things could go.
Clean Energy’s Campaign Impact. In May, a group of clean energy professionals took to organizing Clean Energy 4 Biden. CE4B grew to over 11,000 grassroots activists and raised OVER $3.2million dollars and that doesn’t count the many additional money raised for congressional races. Never before, has the solar industry had a noticeable impact and built relationships with members as well as the administration to this extent. Biden’s senior advisors know who we are and what we did. Solar also held events with Senator-elect Mark Kelly and Senator Heinrich and a local event with congressman Crist.
But The McConnell Senate. This has been the headline that every doubter is using to say that the climate agenda is DOA. First, we won’t know the Senate makeup until early January when two Senate races in Georgia are decided. But let’s assume that McConnell keeps the gavel. Do not, I repeat do not, underestimate the value of Biden’s time in the Senate. But Obama you will say, McConnell will block everything. Obama was a junior Senator that used the seat to catapult himself to the White House, the first Senator to get elected to President since Nixon. Biden spent 39 years as a Senator, not only does he know (really know) the sitting Senators he also knows the staffers and lobbyists that make the system move. President-elect IS institutional memory and I’m not going to underestimate it. McConnell doesn’t have a mandate, at best we will see a 52-48 split, which is one better than currently since the tie goes to the Vice-President. Two things to remember to make you think with optimism, every solar victory started as an idea that most said is impossible and can’t be done (ask anyone that has been advocating in Arizona and Virginia) and McConnell brought a spending bill with ITC extension to Trump who rejected it.
Situational Awareness. McConnell has said that he is planning a COVID stimulus package for when the Senate returns to DC and there is an omnibus spending bill deadline of December 11th. It may end up as a continuing resolution but spending bills have been a great vehicle for solar. There are rumors of ITC negotiations occurring as we speak, more to come on that.
Duke Won’t Settle. Duke isn’t interested in settling with environmental groups for the coal ash disaster they caused. Let’s see if they find the Biden-Harris Department of Justice and EPA more appealing parties to negotiate with. Biden has said a climate czar is coming and with the EPA’s power to regulate emissions, as well as Harris’s history in fighting unjust pollution, I believe the enforcement actions of this administration to have the biggest, fastest impact on fighting climate change.
Other Tidbits. FERC’s chair lost his position as chair because he was ‘too friendly’ to renewables including supporting DERs. Europe’s reaction to the Biden win largely included climate change in the opening paragraph. South Florida is currently underwater with Hurricane Eta dumping rain for several days. Over the past few years rising oceans have made drainage slow dramatically which cause streets and homes to flood. I’ll post some pictures on my Twitter tomorrow.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 6th, 2020
No Call, But It’s Coming. Having stayed awake until the early morning hours, waiting for a call on some set of States to put Biden of 270, it looks like we’ll wait another day. That’s all it seems though, most likely both NV and PA will be called for Biden at some point today. Georgia and Arizona will go through some post election confirmations but America will most likely talk about what’s next. SolarWakeup will be part of that conversation and I welcome your thoughts. Next week we will talk about ITC, stimulus bills, Senate confirmations and more, but it will wait because I’d rather be late and right than a pundit that’s early and wrong.
Silicon Deals. Silicon supply chain could be an easy win for America if we restart domestic production. Looks like that could be happening earlier than I thought.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 5th, 2020
Another Day. With the election yet to be determined and likely not fully in view for a day or more, I’ll refrain from my thoughts on what results do or don’t mean. More to come when we know more.
Something To Watch. McConnell is saying more stimulus is needed when the Senate returns, a funding bill is also needed by early December. Both of those will be lame duck bills that will need Trump’s signature regardless of election results.
Poor Energy Punditry. Because people want to be first to the story, most solar/cleantech/climate change stories are focused on the likely outcome that the Senate will remain under republican control. Without going too deep, let me make one comment. Under a scenario where democrats controlled all chambers and the White House, climate and energy policies were very likely to be pushed out of top position for other issues that are very partisan. Climate on the other hand has supporters on both sides of the aisle in addition to 80%+ of voters from both parties. It is very likely to consider climate/energy/infrastructure as the most progressive issue that can be negotiated in a split government. More to come on this that will prove my point very soon. (Note: You can see the counterpoint from almost half the stories in today’s rundown but I’m confident in my opinion on this, McConnell included a solar ITC extension during the first Trump term).
Resi Installers Grow Profits. Installers that are members of the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group are saving over $1,000 per project through our novel method of leveraging higher volume to drive down prices for the installers. We’d love to talk to you and show you what you can save. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is a monthly membership program (like Costco) that gives you better pricing on the products you are using already.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 4th, 2020
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 3rd, 2020
Election Day Changeup, A Deep Dive. It’s election day, so let’s skip the solar talk. We’ll get back to the regularly scheduled programming tomorrow. As you know, I am back to living in my home state of Florida. I’ve lived here for the better part of 30 years, run for office here, lobbied in Tallahassee and generally been close to the politics. Florida was not always great at elections, but now the State and it’s 67 supervisors of elections do a good job managing early voting (thank you Governor Crist) and getting the total early tabulations out very quickly. This means that at when polls close (most at 7pm, except for the central time zone counties in the Panhandle), the early voting results are released online. Some results will be available well before 8pm eastern. Florida is the gateway to the White House, it creates or eliminates paths to 270 for both parties. Suffice it to say, anything can happen here and while you can’t call the general election based on Florida’s results it will give you major indication. This is what I am looking at on election night, you can join my group therapy by following me on twitter @yannbrandt
Sumter County, America’s Village. In 2000, Tim Russert famously said, “Florida, Florida, Florida.” For me, it’s “Seniors, seniors, seniors” this year. No better place to watch this retired, golf cart demographic vote than in Sumter County. You have to be 55 to live in the Villages and the most sacred thing besides the golf cart is your golf game. Politics and Trump has caused foursomes to split up and end friendships. 83 thousand have already voted, almost 10% more than in all of 2016. So, early tonight, you will get the Sumter data dump and see if the seniors, largely white, are sticking by Trump. Trump won this County by 39% in 2016 and Rick Scott by a few points more. If Trump comes in under 63% with higher turnout, it’s going to be a long night for Trump. The shy Biden voter may make an appearance in the vote tally.
Duval, Not Just Jaguars. It’s been 40 years since a democratic contender for President has won this County which includes Jacksonville. Today, that changes, Clinton missed out on this by just 1.4%. It’s expected that Biden takes it by a point but insiders think that the electorate is quietly changing, like the addition of Jinko’s module plant which sits here, and could expand the lead to north of 3%. Duval has 664k registered voters and the early vote is already at 92% of 2016.
Seminole, The Orlando Expansion. To the Northeast of Orlando sits Seminole County, a growing suburb of the region. It was a nearly 50/50 County in 2016, just 3500 votes separate Clinton from Trump. A State Senate race has my attention here, a 4 term, popular state house member is running for the state senate seat and polling has him down by 8 points. If that’s true, it could be an early I-4 indicator of the Puerto Rican vote.
Pinellas, Follow The Governor. St Petersburg is the gulf front town turning into a city across the bay from Tampa. It is represented by former Governor Crist, a real solar champion, who won that race by a few points last election. His latest polling has him up by 17 points, so let’s give that a haircut because it sounds too good. Trump won this County by 1.1% so you can imagine the possibility of a major take back of votes in this growing area.
Broward, Because It’s My Home. Broward has registered more early votes than the total turnout in 2016. This is the most democratic County in Florida and a big turnout is a great sign, especially with the soft polling Biden has seen with the Cuban vote in Miami. Broward voters also include 347k NPAs (no party affiliation) that could signal a major independent shift towards Biden. There’s a reason that Obama, Biden and Harris have been camping out in town, they know winning Broward by more than 350k votes could be the ballgame.
We Ain’t Got Mountains. The reason we’re all skeptical about Florida polling is that Florida has no mountains, cliffs or even hills, therefore landslides don’t exist. We’re looking for a point off the senior vote, an extra point from NPAs and bigger turnout from dems. That happens, Biden wins Florida. Rick Scott won by 10,000 votes and he’s the junior Senator. The Sunshine State is here for your entertainment and tomorrow, we shall not disappoint. In the meantime, I’m here for you because if it’s 7am eastern, it’s time for SolarWakeup. Go Vote and conquer!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 2nd, 2020
Tomorrow. Like many of you, it’s been a stressful and anxious time. Tomorrow is not the end but a marker in time when you get to have you say if you haven’t voted yet. Whether or not there is a result before we talk on Wednesday, make sure you have a plan to vote or help someone that hasn’t yet. No-one knows what is going to happen and every vote matters. iwillvote.com to access resources for you.
Let’s Talk 100 Days. I’ll have some notes tomorrow about ideas for first 100 days. Many of you chimed in, but I’d love to get more ideas from the readers. The question is: What would you pitch/ask for if you had 5 minutes with Biden/Schumer/Pelosi to advance solar/clean energy?
Because He Got Caught. FirstEnergy fired its CEO and a few executives for bribing the Ohio House Speaker to get a nuclear bailout/RPS kill bill. Let me correct that statement, FirstEnergy fired its chief executive because he got caught, not because the bribe actually happened.
Mary Nichols For Many Things. Mary Nichols would be a phenomenal EPA administrator, she would also be a great secretary of transportation. Regardless of title, I very much hope to see Mary Nichols leading a very relevant agency in DC.
PG&E Flashbacks. A utility watchdog wants the utility fined for shutting off power without adequate notice but the bigger story came from PG&E directly. They are letting its shareholders know that it could be held liable for a recent fire.
Educational Materials. I’m being asked by my kids’ teachers to talk about solar and I’m asking you to help. I need a ‘what is solar’ presentation for 3rd and 5th grades that won’t bore the kids while also making my kids think that their dad is the coolest (focus is on the latter). Who’s got what I’m looking for?
Q1 Supply Challenge. While 2020 definitely had its challenges, solar not only bounced back but has been increasing backlog since April. Manufacturers, based on new expectations, lowered their forecasts and inventory levels are very low. Make sure you control your product flow, look at what you need and when you need it. If you need a check on supply and where the market is for pricing, reach out to SolarWakeup’s Buyer Group. Not only are we lowering your costs, but we’re giving you big insights. You can get some price discovery or other products on our members page.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 30th, 2020
What’s Your Plan? This is where we are, in one way or another you or the company you work for has been building something great for years, maybe even more than 10 years. Solar is both big and valuable, valuable thanks to newly found profits and future growth promise. The same European private equity firm that acquired my former business is acquiring Panelclaw according to PV-Magazine. It couldn’t have happened to a better group of people, if you know the leaders of Panelclaw, you know that they’ve been busting their rear end with the highest level of character while making and inventing some great products. What is your plan for the next phase of your business? You should be thinking about that right now, knowing how you feel about various paths is key to managing the 2020 solar decade.
Weekend Roundup. Here are your quick tips for the weekend reading. Two things to keep your eyes on that hasn’t been published in publications yet. Arizona is set to enact a sweeping clean energy standard including 50% by 2032 with focus on storage as well. Flex LTD, the parent of Nextracker, reported earnings yesterday and most of the questions in the analyst call were solar related, a new topic for the company’s analysts. Enphase and SolarEdge also use Flex for contract manufacturing.
What Will Biden Do? Go to my LinkedIn and tell me what you would pitch if given 5 minutes.
Give Me A Fracking Break. Fracking is 26,000 jobs in Pennsylvania. Don’t underestimate fracking’s PR capabilities. Solar in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia is the way to get long forgotten workers back to work without threatening their health. Axios needs to do better.
Solar From Home. Work from home workers are greening their homes with greater interest than ever before. This isn’t a temporary phenomenon.
The Buyer’s Group Grows. We’re into our second month at the Buyer’s Group and we’ve added another top supplier to the product portfolio. REC modules are now available at an amazing pre-negotiated rate for buyer’s group members. Both Alpha and N-Peak products are on the list. You can get some price discovery for REC or other products on our members page.
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Yann