China To The United States: Two Can Play At That Game, Files WTO Complaint Over Tariffs

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Reuters is reporting that China has filed a World Trade Organization (WTO) complaint against the United States over the solar tariffs President Donald J. Trump imposed in February.

Who could have seen THAT coming? (Everyone. Everyone saw this coming.)

From Reuters writers Dan Stanway and Muyu Xu:

China’s commerce ministry said a U.S. decision to subsidize renewable energy firms and impose tariffs on imported products has seriously distorted the global market and harmed China’s interests, firing the latest shot in a broader trade conflict.

This is what happens when you start a trade war – the laws of unintended consequences kick in and suddenly you’re fighting on 10 fronts simultaneously.

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I must admit it’s a little rich that the Chinese are accusing the United States of subsidize its renewable energy firms. That must come as a huge surprise to SunEdison, Sungevity, Suniva and the like. But that irony aside, the latest battle of the solar tariffs – a battle that I’d like to remind everyone didn’t have to be fought, especially on behalf of two firms that no longer exist – will be waged and decided in the international trade court.

I’m taking odds right now that the Trump Administration responds to this decision by saying it won’t be bound by WTO rulings because “Something, something, America First, furriners, bafflegab, argle bargle.”

In filing the complaint, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said this:

As the U.S. violations have severely distorted the global market for products like photovoltaics and seriously damaged China’s trade interests, China’s use of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism is a necessary measure to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and maintain multilateral trade rules.

According to the ministry, though exports of solar modules have surged 21% this year, only a small fraction went to the United States, with the bulk going to India, a burgeoning solar market with the advantage of being much closer to China than the United States (which makes it cheaper to ship product to it).

No one knows how this dispute will ultimately turn out, but it once again points out how ridiculous the U.S. decision to impose solar tariffs is. Keep this case on your radar; something tells me it won’t be going away any time soon.

An Interview With 8minutenergy: Martin Hermann On Battery Storage And Tariffs And Their Effect On The Overall Industry, Part II

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

At Intersolar North America two weeks ago, I sat down with Martin Hermann, founder and CEO of 8minutenergy on the heels of their announcement of their Eagle Shadow Mountain project, which was signed at a flat rate of $23.76 per megawatt-hour throughout its 25-year PPA term, or 2.3 cents per kilowatt-hour. In Part 1 of our discussions, Martin Hermann and I talked about just how low he thinks module prices can go. In Part II, which will be posted later this week, Martin Hermann discussed the tariffs and their overall effect on the U.S. solar industry. Here is what he had to say in Part II of our discussions.

Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent: (FA): Storage is another big topic of conversation in the industry. Where do you see energy storage right now and how does it help the market mature?

Martin Hermann (MH): The headline is that the future of dispatchable solar is here. The value is here right now for dispatchable utility-scale solar to replace gas peaker plants and even combined cycle plants in the sunnier parts of the country. I am optimistic about where we are as an industry and where we are going with batteries, although I’m not as strong an advocate for distributed generation as some others in the industry. We calculated how much it would cost to run the California grid on only distributed renewables plus storage, and we discovered costs would be six times higher than they are now. So while solar-plus-storage is the future of electricity generation, I think it will be primarily on the utility-scale side of the ledger. You need to put the technology where it will work at its strength.

FA:So what is going on with the tariff situation? What kind of impact do you think they will have on the

MH: I think the good news is that our technology at this point is bigger than tariffs and it will continue to grow. At 8minutenergy, we are completely focused on the U.S. market, and are seeing some remarkable projects come to fruition, including our Eagle Shadow Mountain plant in Nevada that is leading the nation as the lowest-cost solar project. Now, the U.S. market overall might grow more slowly in the short-term than countries that are not putting tariffs on solar. India, for example, continues to move forward and they are the second-largest market behind China, so little blips here and there in other markets aren’t going to derail the global solar industry. Besides India, there are other markets that are starting to install massive amounts of solar, which I believe is just a testimony to the overwhelmingly strong fundamentals of the industry.

FA:Do you think China’s decision to stop building new projects in the second half of the year is going to have the effect of flooding the market with inexpensive modules and, if so, do you think it could end up having a positive effect on the U.S. market?

MH: It is too early to tell. I’d be a little cautious about saying that a major policy change in China is going to have a significant effect on the U.S. market. It’s certainly true that there will be an oversupply of modules, but I see those going to markets much closer to China, like India, instead. There will be other countries that will benefit, too. I’m just not sure the U.S. market will be affected significantly by the recent decisions in China.

Proterra CEO Predicts EV Adoption Timeline

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

What Happened: In this edition of the SolarWakeup Live! podcast, Yann Brandt sat down with Ryan Popple, CEO of Proterra, an electric vehicle manufacturer currently focused on building buses and driving and discussed:

why China is so far ahead of the United States in EV development,
how Tesla made it from being a small startup to the electric vehicle behemoth it is today (Popple was present at the creation), and
how soon will there be an EV in every driveway (OK, that last one’s made up, but they do talk about how quickly mass-transit EVs will be adopted)

SolarWakeup’s View: I will never tire of listening to energy visionaries describe the future in terms that I, with my limited understanding of my day-to-day life let alone the FUTURE, haven’t even conceived of yet. And so I listened with great interest to Managing Editor Yann Brandt’s podcast interview with Ryan Popple from Proterra, an electric vehicle (EV) company dedicated to putting electric, mass transit buses in all U.S. cities in the near future.

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The whole interview is worth listening to, but as you can see from the bullets above, three things really captured my imagination:

First, Popple talks about what it was like to be present at the creation (or at least the early years) at Tesla. What I was most interested in, honestly, was his contention that you don’t necessarily have to have the best technology when you first start a business as long as you have the top intellectual talent throughout the company to get you there eventually.

It’s a sentiment Popple shares with Jim Collins, former Stanford Business School professor and best-selling author of the book Good to Great: Put the best people you can hire in key positions first; then the products will follow.

Second, Popple talks about why China is so far ahead of the United States in EV development. His explanation will be obvious to anyone who ever sat in their college dorms at 2 a.m. discussing the merits of communism vs capitalism and coming to the conclusion that ultimately, capitalism wins – eventually.

Third, Yann asks Popple when he thinks EV development, at least on the mass transit front that Proterra serves, will hit 50% of all the purchases of those types of vehicles. Your jaw may well drop when you hear his answer (I know mine did).

Oh, and he has a prediction of what long-haul trucking will look like in 20 years that will blow your mind.

More:

Can EVs Save The Utility Model?

Proterra