By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent
Tony Seba set the Intersolar North America crowd on fire at his opening session, saying that if the trend in battery prices continue their downward plunge, solar + storage could supply 100% of the U.S. electricity supply by 2030.
“That’s not too bad for an industry in crisis, is it?” Seba told the crowd to hearty laughter. “But as the country becomes ever-more electrified, it’s going to happen.”
Seba predicted that as battery prices continue to plunge, solar + storage will be lower than transmission costs, making solar the only logical choice for businesses and homes. The electrification of the transportation system will help push the Solar Revolution forward, too. How would this work?
Well, think about this: If Seba is right, there will be no new cars sold in the United States by 2025 that won’t be electric. But since cars are parked 94% of the time, they become instant storage capacity for individual homeowners.
The sticking point, however, will be the utilities.
“It’s time to break up the utilities,” Seba said, expanding on his presentation during a post-keynote speech. “We need a new electricity-generation structure that comes from the bottom up, not the top down.”
He believes consumers should have the right to generate their own electricity without having to ask permission from utilities to do so. He believes transmission should be decoupled from energy generation.
“Don’t subsidize anyone, don’t support anyone,” Seba said. “Let the market work. People should have the absolute right to own and generate their own electricity. Utilities shouldn’t just be able to control the electricity.”
Seba also weighed in on the issue that has continued to fascinate me: the issue of what a transition to solar will look like. In many states, natural gas has been the transition fuel of choice. But as solar + storage prices continue to fall, natural gas is losing ground. In California, for example, there’s been an increasing reluctance to allow utilities to build natural gas plants, and the same dynamic is starting to occur in otehr states.
Seba offered the prediction that there won’t be another peaker plant built in the United States after 2020 because the electrification of everything will make them obsolete.
Editor’s Note: This story was updated at 2:43 pm on 7/10/18 to reflect that Tony Seba said 2030, not 2020. Thanks to Suzanne Murley for the assist.