Tag Archives: GTM Research

U.S. Solar Continues To Grow Despite Significant Headwinds

U.S. solar

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

First the good news: The overall U.S. solar industry grew year over year by 13%, adding 2.5 GW-DC in the first quarter of 2018.

Now the bad news: That’s a 37% quarter-over-quarter decrease.

So the latest quarterly U.S. Solar Market Insights Report, put out by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and GTM Research, is a bit of a mixed bag. But the fact that the U.S. solar market has shown any growth at all, in light of heavy tariffs on module imports, flat residential growth and a significant decrease in “non-residential” installations, is a good sign that the industry may well weather the storms.

“The solar industry had a strong showing in the first quarter,” said SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “This data shows that solar has become a common-sense option for much of the U.S. and is too strong to be set back for long, even in light of the tariffs. States from California to Florida have stepped up with smart policies that will drive investment for years to come.”

“This is a promising indicator that constraints to residential PV growth like segment-wide customer acquisition challenges and national installer pullback are abating,” GTM Senior Analyst Austin Perea said. “However, these problems are not entirely solved, as we’re seeing slowdowns in states with a relatively high penetration of PV installations.”

The report notes that the three most active markets – New York, New Jersey and Maryland – will continue to contract, but Perea said he expects those declines to be offset by increases in emerging markets. In particular, Perea cited Florida – a market SolarWakeup has reported on extensively as it has taken off this quarter – as one of the significant bright spots as solar development skyrocketed in the state. In part, solar’s growth in the Sunshine State is being fueled by increasingly active third-party solar options, like Sunrun’s lease and Sunnova’s loan programs.

So far this year, Florida has added more solar than it did in all of 2016, which was the high-water mark for solar development in the United States so far.

GTM says it expects growth in the overall U.S. market will be flat, although the analysis couldn’t have foreseen the recent Chinese decision to decimate its own solar market which, if the module oversupply spills into the United States, could spark unanticipated growth in the U.S. solar market as markets that the tariffs had closed suddenly open again.

How Should We Categorize Community Solar?

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

What Happened:  A debate, started by SolarWakeup founder Yann Brandt, has been joined over this simple question: Where should community solar be slotted in the U.S. Solar Market Insight report?

  • Currently, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and GTM Research categorize community solar as part of the commercial & industrial segment for report purposes.
  • Yann Brandt, on the other hand, believes the location of the system is more important than the offtaker, which would instead put the majority of community solar projects in the utility category.

SolarWakeup’s View:  If you were coming to this article expecting me to take a strong stand on where community solar should be slotted in the U.S. Solar Market Insight report, I’m afraid I’m going to disappoint you.

On the one hand, I can see SEIA and GTM Research’s point. If you’re talking about the scale of project, then you might be able to make the argument that, because of their generally smaller size, community solar might fit into the C&I category.

Speaking for myself only, that’s how I’ve always thought of community solar.

But during a discussion in the SolarWakeup offices, Yann made a pretty compelling argument, at least from where I sit.

In essence, community solar isn’t so much an independent category of solar as much as it is an innovative way for the owner or developer to attract offtakers to purchase electricity from the project.

And in no other segment of the industry is the offtaker considered when placing projects in different categories. So since the majority of community solar projects are ground mounted utility scale, shouldn’t they be considered utility projects?

Now, I recognize that discussion isn’t black and white. Some community solar projects are rooftop, carports or adjacent properties. Some ultra large scale solar farms are selling energy to corporate offtakers.  Where do those fall within the current industry segmentation?

And while this discussion won’t be wrapped up neatly in a bow in one post (especially when I myself can see both sides), it’s certainly a discussion worth having. Because when we report numbers that will be used by the non-solar community, we need to make sure they’re as accurate as any human endeavor can be to avoid the general public misunderstanding our industry.