By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent
Ah. There it is.
After escaping several quarters largely unscathed by the insane Trump tariffs on solar, the Solar Energy Industries Association and Woods Mackenzie report that the third quarter of 2018 saw the 30% tariffs take a bite out of the utility-scale sector.
Though not unexpected, the slowdown hurt solar’s overall growth numbers and has Woods Mackenzie analysts predicting that 2018 will finish flat with year on year growth.
If most of us are being honest, we consider the solar industry a bit lucky that it hadn’t already felt the bite of the tariffs, though as we’ve reported, a massive slowdown in the Chinese market created a glut of solar modules that helped offset some of the damage for a while. But given the wailing and gnashing of teeth that occurred last year as the tariffs were under consideration, surviving two quarters without damage being felt seems like something of a small victory at least.
For the first time since 2015, quarterly additions of utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) fell below 1 gigawatt (GW), highlighting the impact of the tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding them in late 2017 and early 2018. As a result, the U.S. solar market was down 15 percent year-over-year in the third quarter of the year, but the report notes that a strong project pipeline lies ahead.
“Developers originally planning to bring projects online in Q3 2018 were forced to push out completion dates to Q4 2018 or Q1 2019 due to uncertainty around tariffs,” said Colin Smith, Senior Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “We did, however, see utility PV procurement outpace installations fourfold in Q3, showing that despite the tariffs causing project delays, there is substantial growth ahead for the U.S. utility PV sector.”
Even with the tariffs, the report forecasts 3.5 GW of utility PV for Q4 2018, and projects that the fourth quarter will be the largest quarter for utility PV installations since Q4 2016, as Wood Mackenzie expects many of the delayed projects to come online by the end of the year.