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The Energy Show: Avoiding a Global Warming Disaster

The Energy Show: By Barry Cinnamon

The bad news about global warming continues unabated. This fall the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (fondly referred to as the IPCC) sent up an emergency flare. According to Amjad Abdulla an IPCC board member and chief negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, “The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life, as we know it.“ Obviously, small island states are at the most immediate risk. But if the earth’s warming trend continues, many populated areas around the globe will essentially be uninhabitable.

I read the entire report. It’s complex, dense, hard to understand and full of bureaucratese. There were two conclusions in the report that were especially surprising to me. First, unless the world acts immediately and intensively, there is almost no chance that global warming will be less than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The reason is that there is a lot of inertia in the earth’s climate system — we are already on a rapid warming trend. The second conclusion is that an immediate worldwide investment of roughly $900 billion per year will be required to stay below this 1.5% threshold.

On a positive note, I learned a lot of new TLAs (Three Letter Acronyms). My personal belief is that our grandchildren will be saddled with the economic and sociological disruptions that global warming will cause. Nevertheless, there is a large portion of our population that remains skeptical about global warming and its potential impacts. One reason for this global warming divide relates to economics. Some industries — particularly those dependent on fossil fuels — will be negatively impacted (“harmed” is the non-bureaucratic term). On the other hand there will be many industries that will benefit…not only solar and wind, but also from all the jobs created from the transition away from fossil fuels: EVs, heat pumps, more extensive electrical infrastructure, control systems and as yet undeployed new energy technologies.

As an solar enthusiast, I’m obviously biased. But the consequences of global warming are so severe that even the skeptics should consider immediate action as a form of an insurance policy. In case the skeptics are wrong about global warming, an investment now can avoid a disaster later. For more about the IPCC’s recommendations to stabilize and reverse global warming, listen to this week’s Energy Show.

Home Solar Capacity Could Triple If Other States Follow California Mandate

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

A new study from Environment America Research & Policy Center urges other states to follow California’s lead in requiring all new buildings have solar on them. If states would adopt such mandates, which California adopted earlier this year, the home solar market could triple by 2045.

It would also cut carbon dioxide emissions from electricity production by more than 9% over the same time.

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“Every home and structure built without solar is a missed opportunity,” said Bret Fanshaw, Go Solar Campaign director with Environment America Research & Policy Center. “Generating renewable energy from our rooftops helps homeowners and their communities, reducing both electric bills and pollution.”

In May, California became the first state to propose building all new homes with solar panels, a policy which would go into effect in 2020. The state energy commission estimates that a solar homes policy, coupled with energy efficiency improvements, will save homeowners $19,000 in energy and maintenance costs over the course of a typical 30-year mortgage — double what they would add to the cost of a home. Later this week, the California Building Standards Commission will meet to review the proposal.

“The new National Climate Assessment makes it clear that we need to stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible, and solar energy is key to that transition,” said Abi Bradford, policy analyst and report co-author with Frontier Group. “Installing solar panels on all new homes could add more solar energy capacity than the entire country currently has installed — including utility-scale installations — in just six years from 2020 to 2026.”

The fastest-growing states would add the most solar energy if the policy were adopted, with Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona ranked at the top. The report also provides state-by-state estimates for the potential reductions in carbon emissions.

“We can have solar-powered communities right now and for years to come with smart policy choices,” said Fanshaw. “And the most efficient time to install solar panels is when workers are already on the roof.”

Commercial Solar Starts To Thrive in Wisconsin

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Commercial solar, one of the most underserved segments of the solar industry, is taking off in Wisconsin, according to a report by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

The driver of the push is falling solar prices, which takes the decision to add solar out of the realm of “it’s a nice thing to do” and into the realm of “from a business perspective, this is a must do.” In other words, the money-saving aspect of it has become so overwhelmingly compelling that there’s now an undeniable business case for it.

As Larry Schmidt Jr., chief financial officer of Lakeland Supply, told the paper:

I’m a numbers guy, and I wouldn’t be doing it if the numbers didn’t make sense. Obviously we want to be conscious of our energy use and things like that, but this definitely makes sense even if you say ‘I don’t care about our Earth.’ This is a financial decision, too.

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Lakeland Supply put around 500 solar modules on its roof, which will supply the building with 61% of its electricity needs. But they aren’t the only ones. The paper writes:

The most current data from the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin shows that between 2008 and the third quarter of 2017, the number of solar photovoltaic installations on commercial and industrial buildings in the state increased almost ninefold, to 1,030 from 118.

The Journal-Sentinel attributes the majority of the segment’s growth to falling module prices, which makes it more economically feasible for companies to move ahead with solar projects. They also say falling payback times – the amount of time it takes for businesses to recoup their investment – has provided a business rationale for putting solar modules on the roof.

Ten years ago, a story like Wisconsin’s would have been nearly unheard of, but with the success of other Midwestern states like Minnesota and Illinois, the growth of Wisconsin’s solar market now almost seems inevitable. And what makes them stand out from their Midwest competitors is that it’s the commercial segment that seems to be leading the way.

More:

Here’s why more Wisconsin companies are adding rooftop solar energy panels

Q&A With David Murray Of MDV-SEIA On DC’s 100% RPS

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Earlier this week, Washington D.C. announced it had passed a law saying that it would produce all of its electricity from renewable energy by 2032. Though the bill still has to be passed on a second reading, signed by the mayor, approved by Congress and pro-coal President Trump – so who knows if it will actually get approved – it is the most aggressive 100% renewable energy mandate in the country.

SolarWakeup decided to discuss the plan’s chances with someone whose offices are right in D.C.’s backyard – David Murray, executive director of MDV-SEIA. Here are his responses.

SolarWakeup: (SWup): What precipitated the decision to pass the 100% RPS mandate?

David Murray: Starting in 2017, the District Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) developed the Clean Energy DC plan, which outlines recommended steps for the District to cut greenhouse gas emissions 50% by 2032. The 100% RPS is one aspect of the Clean Energy DC Omnibus Amendment Act of 2018, which is largely based off of DOEE’s plan. After Councilmember Mary Cheh introduced the legislation, a coalition of business, social, and environmental advocates came together to support the bill.

For the solar industry, a strong RPS is the main driver for strong investment and job growth. The 2016 50% RPS increase precipitated the District’s recent solar industry growth. Last year, we hit a milestone of over 1,500 solar workers here in DC, which marks a 33% increase in the last two years. A strong solar carve-out within the RPS is crucial to continue this job growth in coming years.

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SWup: Where is the city now, and how realistic is it to get it to 100%?

David Murray: The DC Office of People’s Counsel (OPC) issued a study last year which estimated the technical feasibility of solar potential in the District at 2.4 GW, which does not include parking lots. The bill seeks to increase D.C.’s solar target from 5% by 2032 to 10% by 2041. Expanding solar capacity in the District to reach the OPC’s higher estimate of solar potential would result in 26 million tons of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emission reductions. The current target in the RPS of 10% by 2014 is certainly achievable, being on the conservative end of the OPC study estimate.

SWup: What are the steps they will need to take to get there?

David Murray: The comprehensive nature of the Omnibus bill is the right approach because a full transition to a low-carbon economy is going to need to come from emission reductions in several areas. Specifically, the transition to 100% renewable energy must include District ratepayers from all economic backgrounds. Solar energy is the only true form of local renewable generation in the RPS and it produces local benefits. The solar carve-out maximizes equity through programs like Solar For All, which benefit low-income residents by offering solar at no cost to homeowners who quality for the program.

Reducing soft costs is another key priority: working in a heavily-trafficked city of just 68 square miles has a unique set of challenges. Thus, MDV-SEIA is engaging DOEE to streamline the permitting process, increase market transparency, and creditworthiness of solar installers.

SWup: What role do you think solar will play in DC’s transformation?

David Murray: Solar has been a constant area of growth for the District’s energy portfolio. In addition to exceeding the goal of creating over 1,200 local jobs by 2020 three years early, D.C. based solar generation helped the District become the first city in the world to be certified as LEED platinum. Community solar, Solar For All installations, and public-private solar partnerships will only increase with the 10% standard.

SWup: Are there any downsides to the potential transformation?

David Murray: There aren’t many downsides to a cleaner energy economy but there are certainly opportunities. Our transmission and distribution infrastructure needs to be upgraded to the 21st century including increased distributed generation, battery storage, advanced metering, and electric vehicle infrastructure. These infrastructure upgrades yield long term payoffs in the form of a stronger, more resilient system and solar will play a huge role in a modern grid.

SWup: Do you think Congress will allow this mandate to go forward?

David Murray: The Congressional review process did not affect the 2016 RPS increase. It is unlikely federal lawmakers will challenge the merits of this legislation, either.

SWup: How do the national politics affect the local politics?

David Murray: No doubt the abdication of climate leadership from the federal government spurred local lawmakers to act. We are seeing it in the three other states MDV-SEIA represents: Virginia is poised to join RGGI, our 50% RPS bills in Maryland and Delaware are likely to pass next year as well. DC has always been progressive: it is no coincidence the City Council put forth a 100% RPS while the White House is looking to bailout coal and nuclear.