The Florida Market Hypergrowth – Sunrun Formally Announces Its Florida Leasing Plans

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Sunrun officially announced its Florida leasing package only two months after getting its declaratory statement from the Florida Public Service Commission (FPSC) that would allow it to lease solar systems without penalty.

When the FPSC in April formally allowed Sunrun leasing customers to avoid becoming regulated utilities, the company formally announced that Florida residents can start receiving Sunrun leasing’s solar-as-a-service and Brightbox home battery beginning tomorrow. As hurricane season approaches, the battery backup systems should be attractive to Florida customers.

“Freedom is a value Americans hold dear,” said Lynn Jurich, CEO and co-founder of Sunrun. “In offering Floridians solar-as-a-service, households in the Sunshine State are given the freedom to make, control, and store their own energy.

“Unfortunately, too many Floridians have experienced first hand the effects of extreme weather and power outages,” she added. “Home solar and batteries provide peace of mind and backup power when disaster strikes, keeping food fresh and the lights on.”

The declaratory statement by the FPSC opened the floodgates for residential installers to race into the Florida market. Sunnova followed the statement by entering with its own loan product, while Vivint – the country’s third largest residential solar installer – has formally petitioned the FPSC for its own letter assuring its customers that they won’t become regulated utilities if they lease solar for their rooftops.

Installers will be targeting a solar market ripe for growth with unique challenges such as advanced building codes written around hurricanes. With wind speeds up to 180mph in some areas, the building officials will be looking at solar to comply with the robust codes that were put in place after Hurricane Andrew. The engineering will mean more roof mounts that have to be flashed properly to avoid roof leaks.

Proper installation tactics are key to the solar industry’s growth as building officials have already begun meeting together to ensure solar projects are engineered and built according to the plans. According to Navigant’s solar resource study, Florida’s residential solar market could reach 40 GW based on available space with good solar potential.

Sunrun’s decision to enter the Florida market is a no-brainer. Wood Mackenzie Solar Analyst M.J. Shiao says the company believes Florida will have more than 7 GW cumulative capacity by 2023. The numbers are so big even Tallahassee politicians – who are often beholden to the state’s powerful utilities – recognize the significance of Sunrun’s latest move.

“Sunrun’s new solar lease will give Central Florida residents greater access clean energy choices, lower energy costs, and continued momentum for local job growth in our state’s renewable energy market,” said State Senator Linda Stewart (D-Orlando) said. “This is the Sunshine State and Floridians should be able to take full advantage of an abundant, emissions-free energy source that contributes to a healthier community while remaining affordable.”

Something About Babies And Bath Water: Big Oil Could Help The Renewable Transition If We Let Them (So Says The Fool)

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

According to Maxx Chatsko at The Motley Fool, it may not pay for renewable energy advocates to fit Big Oil for the Snidely Whiplash top hat and cape. It seems they are investing billions of dollars into renewable energy research that could help make a 100% renewable future possible – but only if they’re allowed to continue their work.

The argument is all about scale. While solar is spreading like wildfire of its own accord, building an infrastructure like the one Big Oil already has in place would take decades (if not centuries). Plus, solar companies at this stage in their development don’t have the capital on hand to make those investments. Much of the industry is still in the aggressive start-up mode, with money to make payroll still taking precedence over long-term investing in infrastructure.

Like Katie Fehrenbacher’s article earlier about using utilities to build electric vehicle (EV) charging structure, the question is how do clean energy advocates use the current infrastructure to widen the appeal for renewable energy. And Chatsko thinks there just might be a syngergy between renewable energy advocates and Big Oil (words we guarantee you never expected to see that close together – or even in the same sentence).

Chatsko writes (and he may well be right):

Displacing and replacing fossil fuels won’t be easy. Nor cheap. That leads to an inconvenient reality for most narratives surrounding clean energy: moving to a renewable future as quickly as possible will require help from the incredible capital generation capabilities of the world’s largest oil companies.

The numbers are impossible to ignore. Consider that ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS-A) (NYSE:RDS-B), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), BP (NYSE:BP), and Total SA (NYSE:TOT) have generated a combined $44.6 billion in free cash flow in the last 12 months. That’s a whole lot of solar panels. Or research and development. Or equity investments in promising start-ups.

It may be galling to a lot of renewable energy advocates, but it’s not the craziest suggestion we’ve ever heard. And if the checkbooks and possibilities are open, who are we to say no to their help?

More:

Big Oil Is Investing Billions in Renewable Energy. Here’s Where and How.

EV Charging Earns Nearly $1 Billion In Investments In California, New York

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

There just might be something to this electric vehicle (EV) revolution after all – at least New York and California seem to think so.

Greenbiz is reporting that between the two states, nearly $1 billion will be spent adding EV-charging stations to the nation’s infrastructure. In California, more than $750 million of public money is being invested in three of the state’s largest utilities, while in New York $250 million is being allocated to the New York Power Authority (NYPA).

As the invaluable Katie Fehrenbacher notes in her article, the decision to invest with utilities and power authorities reflects what could be the rapidly changing role of those entities as the grid modernizes and mobility becomes one of the primary drivers of that change.

As Fehrenbacher also notes:

Research firms like Bloomberg New Energy Finance are predicting that a third of the world’s vehicles will be electric by 2040. To meet this demand and adequately charge such dramatic growth in electric vehicles, more public charging infrastructure must be deployed.

Currently, there are between 50,000 to 70,000 chargers publicly available and at workplaces in the United States (not including home chargers). Including home chargers, there are close to 475,000 charging ports across the country.

As she notes, not everyone is happy. In what perhaps is the perfect summation of the other side of the EV debate, Fehrenbacher writes:

Not everyone agrees with the use of such sizable public funds for EV charging. The California Independent Oil Marketers Association called the CPUC’s move a “$500 million money grab.”

The entire article is worth your time. It’s a perfect encapsulation of where the country is – and perhaps should be – in terms of the EV revolution that is currently sweeping the world. The United States, thanks to visionary leaders in states like California and New York, has the chance to lead the revolution instead of follow it.

More:

A wave of electric vehicle charging investment is here

Chinese Solar Market Suffers Severe Setback As Government Slashes Subsidies, Projects

This is one of those times having a red flag waving in the wind is an unfortunate visual.

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

The South China Morning Post reports a Chinese solar market in freefall after the government decided it would no longer fund new solar farms and slashed subsidies to solar electricity users by almost 10%.

According to the paper, the government says the move is designed to wean the Chinese solar market off of government subsidies and put it on a more “sustainable path.” The Post wrote:

A joint statement put out on Friday by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance and National Energy Administration said, “The measures are aimed at “promoting the solar energy sector’s sustainable development, enhancing its development quality and speeding up reduction of subsidies.”

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One observer of the U.S. markets wondered allowed if the U.S. market was ready for the onslaught of inexpensive panels that could flood the market as these Chinese manufacturers who are used to certain profit levels based on subsidies look to dump excess inventory into one of the world’s expanding solar markets.

“Watch the price dumping now,” the observer said, speaking on anonymity to discuss trade policy freely. “They are going to deluge modules to the U.S. market and get us addicted to low-cost modules even more.”

Roth Capital Partners put out a warning to its investors, downgrading its advice on all Chinese-related solar stocks.

“Our initial estimates suggest we are due for a potential massive 20 to 30 GW of annualized overcapacity in the coming months and quarters without a clear catalyst of rebalance,” Roth’s email said. “We expect to see a rapid deterioration in (average solar prices) through the entire supply chain – module all the way to poly silicon – while downstream players will benefit”

What is unclear at this time is the effect that President Donald J. Trump’s 30% tariffs, imposed in January, will be able to stop – or even slow – the onslaught into the U.S. market. Depending on how little the Chinese companies are willing to charge for the modules, they could in effect decide to work the 30% tariff into their prices. Though such dumping would be good in the short run for project developers in the United States, it would devastate what little module manufacturing is left here.